spot playing while waiting

[punch18]

Hi everyone,
First off cant wait for the cd. Second i want to generate a little fun icome, to see if i can actually profit from some of the spot plays. I am at a severe disadvantge without having the book but i do have this site. My plan is to spot play early type horses only. I have read all the examples but iam still hitting a wall please help guid my guys. ( here is what i do)
1. running styles circle earlies mark there first call, if there is no earlies and hes proven he can win i bet....... i dont match him up vs the other horses is this correct since he is a lone earlie??
2. i do the exact same for a dominate early...

If anyone can give specific advice how the implement the early spot play please input.
thanks in advance punch

[Bill V.]

Hello Punch
ahead of me at the loading dock

I'm not very high on spot plays
My problem with them is while i'm looking for them
I forget to do the race the way I know works well for me
and I often get disciurage waiting around for them then losing them

I think you should do about 20 tries on paper
see what kind of mutual your likely to be getting
The problem I see with what your looking to do is this
Basicly your looking at an early horse
your not looking at the whole match up and the # 1
question we need to know about early horses
Can It go Wire To wire in todays match up
To do this correctly you need to see if the othet horses
have the ability to run it down in the third fraction
I kind of think you may be looking at what almost everybody can see
in the Past performances Who is going to get the early lead
These horses i think get over bet
The complete match up process gets you the better prices

Thanks
Bill

[RichieP]

Hi Punch

I work a bunch of races in the same fashion and then look for patterns or things to stand out indicating a bet.

I grab each horses fastest pace of race competitive finish from wherever that is in the pp's. I assign a running style to the horse. Then I look at all the lines together and wait for something to hit my eye. Now you can use software generated readouts or visual at this point (though we only deal with non software here in Hat Check). Key is to work races in the same way to get you in a groove where things can show themself to you.

Here are screenshots of the first 3 races(before scratches) today at Belmont. These are the pictures I set up for me to look at quietly. Then it is a matter of scratches,finding something that looks good,price and a final look at the horse you are betting.

[Charlie D]

Lady Bayr

Line 8 - 22 - 44.6

Nothing else near this in her PP

8th by 13, 8 by 11, but only gets beat a nose

Too much Early probably help her


Line 8 not to be trusted, i reckon

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

I grab each horses fastest pace of race competitive finish from wherever that is in the pp's. I assign a running style to the horse. Then I look at all the lines together and wait for something to hit my eye.

Very nice points.

Putting it all together, PowerLines,PowerMoves,Running Styles, Stacking, Early or OTE, not running to previous fractions, fastest pace last race, etc., T-H-E-N , comparing it to his other lines , to come to a decision about the horse AND the race :

To find the kind of horse you are looking for : Early or Other-Than-Early

Is the horse a contender T-O-D-A-Y ?


VoodooFan

[Charlie D]

Bel race 2

2 and 3 were scratched, so you ask yourself a question

Can 1a go wire to wire?


Answer = Yes

[Charlie D]

Here's another from other day at Philly

You had to forgive the #2 horses last two efforts to get it, but as an example of what to look for it will suffice

Question: From the Pacelines selected can the #2 go wire to wire??

Answer = Yes

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Here's another from other day at Philly

You had to forgive the #2 horses last two efforts to get it, but as an example of what to look for it will suffice

Question: From the Pacelines selected can the #2 go wire to wire??

Answer = Yes

Hello Charlie
With out using software how do you tell if the 2 can or can not go wire to wire??

If you can help me out
Thanks
Bill

[Charlie D]

Hi Bill


We use this Part of Jim "The Hat" Bradshaws Five Step Approach

MATCH THE HORSES

After you have learned the first four steps it is now time for the "nitty gritty" of The Match Up:

1. Apply the tandem concept and match each Tandem against today’s pace. This procedure will eliminate slower horses and non-contenders. Pay close attention to Tandems at today’s distance and at today’s track.

2. Apply today’s projected pace and Match each horses running lines, with each horse in the race. Horses that do not Match Up are eliminated. This procedure should get the field down to three or four true contenders. It is necessary to eliminate horses that do not have a chance of being in the money.

3. The selection of the line that best predicts how the horse will run in today's race is the "key" in using the Match Up. Look at the total past performance to decide the best line that matches the pace and represents the running style of the horses in today's match up. Match each horses running style against each other: Early against Early, Presser against Presser and Late (Sustained) against Late. Pick the best of the three styles. Now you have the fastest horses in today’s race.

4. Now let’s pick the winner of the race. Is the race going to run early, or other than early? This question is best answered in the running style of the horses. Look at the early horses. Can the early horse go wire-to-wire? Can the early horse pass horses if they do not get the lead? To decide if an early horse can pass horses look at the position call before the first call, remember the race starts, when the gate "pops". If it is decided that the early horse can not win, will a presser prevail? Check the pressers and see if they can run fast enough to pass tiring early horses, or did they exert their energy attempting to stay in the race? If the pressers have exerted their energy early, then and only then will the late horse win.