Parx -Saturday 11/12 - TM 103 Race Class - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 11-09-2011, 04:29 PM

Here is the 8th from Parx this Saturday going 8.3f on the dirt. Best of luck/skill, match em up and win the race!

Data shown on middle tab is RAW and unadjusted by Trackmaster.

RichieP · 11-09-2011, 04:31 PM

...

Bill Lyster · 11-10-2011, 10:10 PM

If the two runs to line 3 - 46.8-111.5 and with the ability to fight and win doing 111.5 - he wins in a walk. At this pace the 3 and the 5 will be far back and farther back.

The 7 has been pressing in sprints lately and lines 1 and 3 project faster than the 3, but the 7 has not won a route on the lead or run a reasonably fast time in a route, so I am going to down play the projected times, but the 7 should be closest of the pressers and will be one of my exotic plays.

The 1, 4, and 6 cannot run against this pace so the logical winner other than the 2 is someone who can run from 4th or farther back and I would favor the 3 over the 5.

Primary pick 2, boxed with 3 and 7 in exacta and trifecta.

Good luck and better skill,

Bill

PeteC · 11-12-2011, 01:34 AM

Hey Richie, thanks fo putting up another race, and Bill for the analysis laid out so well as usual.

I took a different view on this 2 horse though. I didn't go back to those fast power lines after seeing how it lost position at the end agianst a much slower pace than it previously handled. I then looked at the OTE runners and narrowed it to the 3 and the 5.

emilio840 · 11-12-2011, 06:03 AM

Hi to all.

My choice here is #2 but it got beat by the #1 in a tandem race so I will take the 1.

emilio

lsosa54 · 11-12-2011, 10:18 AM

Contenders: 2 4 6 7

Win bets: 4 6

partsnut · 11-12-2011, 10:41 AM

Other then early seems to fit here.

My contenders are: 1,7,5,2
My top 2 are highlighted and underlined.

I like the (1) to win so I'll go with my friend Emilios pick.

delmarscott2004 · 11-12-2011, 11:02 AM

My contenders , in this order are the 2..1..7 and the 6 .
win bets on the 2 and 1 , boxing the 2..1..7..6..in a exc / tri

Scott

SilentRun · 11-12-2011, 11:07 AM

I like the 1, 2 and 5. I also think the 7 will set the pace and could run ITM.
This is close but I consider #2 as the key horse.

Since I think all of the above horses have a good chance of running ITM and rather betting just for win I would consider an exacta play 1,2,5/1,2,5,7.

Ernie

Bill Lyster · 11-12-2011, 12:24 PM

One of the problems with running slower fractions is that it opens up the field of contenders to horses that are slower early but that have consistent closing efforts. Not every horse goes two ticks faster if the early pace is one tick slower

Looking at the LPR of the 2 in its last race it actually ran faster late than in its win. So it would appear that the best it can do late is about 90 plus. There are only a couple of others that have consistenly bettered that number.

From the EPR side the 2 has several in the 86 or better range and this is best in field so I think that some one like the 4 prompts the pace and keeps it lively. If the pace is slow the two become vulnerable. A TPR of about 175 or a hair less should be enough today, IMHO.

Bill

11-12-2011, 11:07 AM	#9
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Parx r8 I like the 1, 2 and 5. I also think the 7 will set the pace and could run ITM. This is close but I consider #2 as the key horse. Since I think all of the above horses have a good chance of running ITM and rather betting just for win I would consider an exacta play 1,2,5/1,2,5,7. Ernie

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Sunday 10/2 at Parx - TM104 Race Class	RichieP	Matchup Discussion	14	10-04-2011 02:07 PM
Saturday - 10/1 - Woodbine Turf Sprint Stakes - TM Race Class 103	RichieP	Matchup Discussion	18	10-02-2011 06:52 PM
Saturday Mth Turf Route - 100TM Race Class	RichieP	Matchup Discussion	14	09-18-2011 01:35 PM
Saratoga 2010 - Workbook for the Seminar	Ted Craven	2010	9	08-28-2010 04:13 PM
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup	RichieP	Hat Check - How Can We Help You?	1	05-25-2009 09:52 AM

11-09-2011, 04:29 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Parx -Saturday 11/12 - TM 103 Race Class Here is the 8th from Parx this Saturday going 8.3f on the dirt. Best of luck/skill, match em up and win the race! Data shown on middle tab is RAW and unadjusted by Trackmaster. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

11-09-2011, 04:31 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	... Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

11-10-2011, 10:10 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	If the two runs to line 3 - 46.8-111.5 and with the ability to fight and win doing 111.5 - he wins in a walk. At this pace the 3 and the 5 will be far back and farther back. The 7 has been pressing in sprints lately and lines 1 and 3 project faster than the 3, but the 7 has not won a route on the lead or run a reasonably fast time in a route, so I am going to down play the projected times, but the 7 should be closest of the pressers and will be one of my exotic plays. The 1, 4, and 6 cannot run against this pace so the logical winner other than the 2 is someone who can run from 4th or farther back and I would favor the 3 over the 5. Primary pick 2, boxed with 3 and 7 in exacta and trifecta. Good luck and better skill, Bill

11-12-2011, 01:34 AM	#4
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hey Richie, thanks fo putting up another race, and Bill for the analysis laid out so well as usual. I took a different view on this 2 horse though. I didn't go back to those fast power lines after seeing how it lost position at the end agianst a much slower pace than it previously handled. I then looked at the OTE runners and narrowed it to the 3 and the 5.

11-12-2011, 06:03 AM	#5
emilio840 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can Posts: 220	Hi to all. My choice here is #2 but it got beat by the #1 in a tandem race so I will take the 1. emilio

11-12-2011, 10:18 AM	#6
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Contenders: 2 4 6 7 Win bets: 4 6

11-12-2011, 10:41 AM	#7
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Other then early seems to fit here. My contenders are: 1,7,5,2 My top 2 are highlighted and underlined. I like the (1) to win so I'll go with my friend Emilios pick.

11-12-2011, 11:02 AM	#8
delmarscott2004 delmarscott2004 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Orange County California Posts: 132	My contenders , in this order are the 2..1..7 and the 6 . win bets on the 2 and 1 , boxing the 2..1..7..6..in a exc / tri Scott

11-12-2011, 12:24 PM	#10
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	One of the problems with running slower fractions is that it opens up the field of contenders to horses that are slower early but that have consistent closing efforts. Not every horse goes two ticks faster if the early pace is one tick slower Looking at the LPR of the 2 in its last race it actually ran faster late than in its win. So it would appear that the best it can do late is about 90 plus. There are only a couple of others that have consistenly bettered that number. From the EPR side the 2 has several in the 86 or better range and this is best in field so I think that some one like the 4 prompts the pace and keeps it lively. If the pace is slow the two become vulnerable. A TPR of about 175 or a hair less should be enough today, IMHO. Bill