RDSS User Seminar - 'The Race Dashboard'

[kahunab]

So what can we learn from the “Race Dashboard” or how to find an $81.50 winner

Before we dive into looking at a race, let’s agree on some assumptions:

1. This is about looking at read outs after line selection is done. No matter how we select lines we get a picture of how the race will run from which we make decisions. I personally like the automatic line selection of 'best Perceptor last 3 comparable'. My results are more consistent. Some of you like to assign your own choice for lines and that is great. However we select lines, we get a read out from which we make decisions. That is the point of departure for this discussion.

2. This discussion is for the betterment of all. We can all learn from an open dialogue even if we disagree. So respectful questions and comments from that point of view are encouraged.

3. RDSS is a great tool kit. It gives each of us multiple ways to look at a race and choose the tool or tools that work best for each of us. There is no absolute best way to use RDSS to handicap a race. There are multiple ways.

4. While the mutual for this race is extremely high due to the betting public misunderstanding the match up, the concepts here are useful in other races and that while this size mutual is sometimes available, the concepts point just as well (and more frequently) to more normal-sized mutuels.

5. I refer to the Entries screen as the Dashboard. In my opinion this screen is more than a screen about entries, it gives us an idea about whether we should even get into the race with the potential to get a “larger” mutuel.

That being said, let’s look at a race.

I chose this race because it is a stark example that really teaches us some things.

Now the 'Dashboard' for Finger Lakes 4 on November 12th.

[kahunab]

First of all, look closely at this screen to see if there might be a good price in this race. My data indicates that about 90% of the time the winner will come out of the top 5 CSR horses. Remember this number is a weighted rating of the last 4 races Adjusted Speed Ratings and often will tell you if the horse can compete today. (The last race gets the most weight and the 4th race gets the least weight.) Note the M/L odds for the top 5 CSR horses. In order their odds are 5,6,4,15,2.5. Nothing spectacular, but it looks like the 3 will be the favorite and he is 5th.



Note now the Early Speed points of the top 3 early point horses. They total 21 points. By Quirin’s definition, if you have 3 horses that have high early speed ratings you probably have a heavy pressure race and should look to late runners to win. I personally look for 21+ points as the key indicator. Notice how many Early types we have here. (Note: I always assign the running styles of the horses. The computer often struggles with correct style assignment.) There are numerous articles in the Follow Ups about having a lot of competitive early horses and regardless of the numbers betting the late runners. This race seems to fit that picture on first look. The late runners are the 9 at M/L odds of 5 to 1, the 7 at M/L odds of 15 to 1 and the 6 at M/L odds of 20 to 1. There could be a big price here.

So even this brief look seems to indicate a race that we want to dive into. Let’s look at the horses.

[kahunab]

The Horses.......

[kahunab]

Horses again.......

[kahunab]

Using the best Perceptor last 3 comparable we get this picture. RDSS is a great tool kit. It allows us to use tools that gives each of us the best look at the race that individually helps us see the race and make decisions. Different folks can use different screens depending on how they best see the race unfold. I personally get the best view of the race on the segments screen. I then use the BL/BL screen for back up.



The first thing I see is that the 6 horse cannot compete and the 8 is an early horse who cannot get the lead. Note that the 5 and 1 are labeled as F(ighters). If they as Early’s can’t get the lead, they don’t give up or quit. Check out their past performances. So we scratch the 6 and 8. Now our picture looks like this (see next post).

[kahunab]

Scratch the 6 and the 8...



We get more evidence of a “late race”. When there are two horses who each have one of the first two fractions, ie. no clear leader along with multiple position changes with the front enders as we see here, that is often a picture that leads to a late race where we make our choice from the right side of the screen under the TS+F3 section. That seems to be an accurate predictor when we have a late race. The clear win choices for late are 7 and 1.

Now the BL/BL screen (next post).

[kahunab]

The 7 is a clear play as he is #1 VDC and in the top 5 CSR. The 1 is a little low on VDC but within parameters for CSR. I chose to bet the 7 and 1.

Choosing to bet the 9 as a Presser with #1 VDC and #1 CSR would not be a mistake as one would then be betting on the two latest running horses à la the Doc’s old advice. Win bets on the 1 and 7 along with an Exacta 7,1/1,7, 9,5 and the Trifecta 7,1/1,7,9,5,3/1,7,9,5,3 gives one a very profitable day.

[kahunab]

Finally the results......

[atkinsrr]

yeow !!!!!!!! nice hit !!!!!!!!!!

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Dick (kahunab) for posting this. For those who don't know him, Dick has been part of the Methodology for a long time and is currently mentoring a few people in RDSS and Methodology 'best practices'. He's a retired teacher and has expressed an interest in demonstrating various basic concepts to the Methodology using RDSS. This was his first 'lesson' in what I understand will hopefully be an ongoing series.

Regardless of the mutuel which, agreed, was rather abnormal - it does illustrate a concept which the public has a hard time grasping: the Early/Late bias and an extreme example of when too much Early Pressure ends up favouring Late running and Late energy disbursing horses who are not otherwise normally 'blessed' with a lot of 'Total Energy' (or ability to run to the fastest Final Time Speed Ratings).

Ted