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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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04-15-2016, 07:59 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Practice Race Keeneland Race 8
Keeneland race 8 In honor of Richie P , FTL and Jeff (shoeless)
all who keep me going out here on the road its nice to talk horses to pass the time . Here we go ..... Notes All have 2 wins except horse 7 Can the 2 horse route and go 3/3 ? will a late energy turf horse win ? Conditions Horses Last edited by Bill V.; 04-15-2016 at 08:22 AM. |
04-15-2016, 08:01 AM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
4 5 6 7
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04-15-2016, 08:03 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
8 9 10 11 12
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04-15-2016, 08:04 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
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Bill, glad you posted this race. Lots of value i think.
To me it is between the #2, #10, and #12. I will try to write up something later in the day here on my opinion in this race if i get some time. Thanks for posting. |
04-15-2016, 08:06 AM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Readouts
My look at the 8th from Keeneland OC 62.5 N3-X Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1 2 11 5 12 6 Step 2 Fulcrum horse No Fulcrum No one has run at 8 furlongs - Keeneland last line Step 3 Running styles Horse 1 Presser No line 30/1 ml Horse 2 S/P Line 1 - never routed only 2 lines Horse 3 Early Presser Line 1 Horse 4 Sus No line Horse 5 Presser No line Horse 6 EP Line 1 No line Horse 7 Sus Line 1 No line Horse 8 Press line 1 Horse 9 Early No line Horse 10 Press Line 2 excuse line 1 off track Horse 11 Early Line 1 Horse 12 E/P Line 1 Step 4 Who has the top EPR The 11 has the best EPR 99 Early Routing Can It go wire to wire = No Its LPRs are too low 81, 79 72 Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions The top TPR horses They are 10 11 12 Top 3 VDC = 10 12 3 Top 3 RX = 3 10 8 My bets 10 and 12 |
04-15-2016, 04:14 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Quick analysis
I have it down to #10 Quiet Ruler 2nd pace line and #8 Chipit 2nd paceline ... Quiet Ruler has already run over today's distance at a flat mile while #8 Chipit will face a slower 2nd fraction in today's match up ...these are my two choices.. Good skills |
04-15-2016, 04:14 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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This is a real tough race with too many unknown factors in it. A race I would past normally and have little confidence in. The 9 & 11 should set it up for a closer as they both seem to be NTL. A mix in here of horses stepping up in class, dropping in class, shorting up and stretching out(even a 1/2 to 1F can impact the race) and changing surface.
My order came up 8-10-12 however I'm taking a shot with the 5 & 7 for a $2 win bet for the fun of it. I expect the M/L odds also to go down on the 8-10-12 so their odds won't justify the risk. Don't like the race at all. Ugly!! A race that may run like it should or anything could take it. The 5 trains and works out on dirt so he isn't a toss, an unknown. The 5 & 7 can close into a fast pace and their odds are worth a $2 flier on each. Good luck, Mitch44 |
04-15-2016, 04:55 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,117
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I'll go 10-12- for win and use 348 underneath
Tim |
04-15-2016, 04:58 PM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
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Quote:
I have it 8-11-12 |
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04-15-2016, 07:37 PM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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miss
Monmouth's Jersey Joe Bravo spoils the party
To say we missed this one is an understatement. Recap None of our selections even hit the board! The 4 wins and pays $16.00 |
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