Just follow the guidelines

[For The Lead]

Here is race 7 from MNR on 9.16.13.
This is the type of winner that is hard for most people. WHY?
Well, there appears to be a lot of early types, so most people would be looking for a closer, figuring the early types would burn each other out leaving the race open for a closer to win. It doesn't always work out that way.

What happens to the early types, in a race with a lot of early types, when they can't make the lead? They back up and are of no consequence in the outcome of the race. This is true even when there is a dominant early type that outruns the other early types. They back up, while the dominant early type goes on with it. Now it is a matter of whether or not the closers can catch the dominant early. Many times they don't. Most races with a lot of early types are won by one of theose early types. Let's get on to the rundown of the horses.

#1 - NO LINE. ML is 30/1.
#2 - Last line. The last line was 27 days ago at a similar distance and on the same surface. It was a win (a "+" race) vs. NW3L. The horse is moving up in condition.
#3 - Last line. The last line was 20 days ago at the same distance and same surface.The race was a 2nd (a "+" race) vs NW4L. This is the same condition as today.
#4 - Last line. The last line was 9 days ago, at a similar distance and on the same surface. The horse finished 3rd (a "+" race) vs NW4L, the same as today's race.
#5 - NO LINE. The last line was 9 days ago at a similar distance and on the same surface. The horse ran a poor race vs the same class and condition as today's race. There is no apparent excuse for the race, therefore, going back a line is not appropriate.
#6 - Last line. The last line was 9 days ago at a similar distance and on the same surface. It is a "(+)" race vs the same class and condition as today's race. it is a "(+)" race because it had the lead at the first two calls. The fade down the stretch does not matter. In the Paceline Manual, Doc said this is the most positive sign of approaching good form.
#7 - Last line. The last line was 14 days ago at a similar distance and on the same surface. It was a win (a "+" race) vs NW3L. Today it is moving up in condition.
#8 - SCR
#9 - Line 2. The last line is not usuable because it was run at 4.5 furlongs at CT, a bullring track. Line 2 was a 2nd place finish 55 days ago, so it is a "+" race. It was run at a similar distance and on the same surface. That race was against the same class and same condition as today's race.

Here are the horses.

[For The Lead]

Here are the rest of the horses.

[For The Lead]

Here are the screen shots and the chart.

Take note of the items I have marked in red.

[For The Lead]

I know there are many that don't like and would not use the last line for #6.
So here is what I did. I used the line 4 back, a win vs NW3L from 71 days ago. Now let's take a look at the segments screen and compare it to the segments screen using the last line. I'll show the original segments scrren first, followed by the one using line 4 for the winner.





I will suggest to you, that using the last line is the better choice. WHY? Because it shows the horse being very close up at the first call (F1) and then being able to make the strongest second fraction time of any other horse in the race. So as the horses are entering the stretch, the #6 horse is moving away from the field.

Just because a horse backs up in the stretch in its' last race, does not mean it will back up again today!

[Lt1]

Sorry Bill it was Sat, The Laurels. My bad thanks for catching it Wasn'tL4 for 16k n1 6m.

[Lt1]

Hey Rich hit that 5 race cold. Had it posted on another site and needless to say they loved it. I love this place.

[Lt1]

Hi FTL. I used line 4 but I can see your point for l1. It stands to reason the going 5/12 today it would not decelerate as much as it did at 6f. Also my model for 5.5 has the top ep horses winning

[Bill V.]

I would like to show this 20/1 Morning Line winner.

I ask you, If you follow FTL's guidelines of a + race at the same distance
/surface in the last 90 days, how often do you see the 20/1 horse as 1 of only 2 horses to consider.

Here is the winner of race 8 at Parx on 7/28. Its the Crowd Pleaser Handicap
Its a state bred stakes race on the turf at 8.5 furlongs.

First off we need to realize its a strong possibility that any turf race
at Parx has a very strong chance of being taken off the turf. There is only
1 turf course at Parx, so if its wet they take the race off the turf.
The morning line maker must take into consideration the horses in
this handicap race who are dirt horses,These dirt horses are looking for a gift stakes win if the race goes on the dirt. Yet they do need a morning line.

That said the race did go on the turf so the 5 7 9 and 11 all scratched.

Now that I have the surface question answered yet the morning line maker did not. Here is my work up of the race.

I didn't post the pp's for all the horses here but I can if its needed.
Following the guidelines FTL posted in the first post of this thread,
I only have a line for 1 horse = Horse # 8. There is another horse who fits the guidelines but its 20/1 on the morning line, horse #4

20/1 Morning line horses hardly ever win and how often does a race come down to just 2 horses, one of which is 20/1 ML.

Here is the winner and my thoughts as I went through the race.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hi FTL. I used line 4 but I can see your point for l1. It stands to reason the going 5/12 today it would not decelerate as much as it did at 6f. Also my model for 5.5 has the top ep horses winning

I have a question for you.

In another post you said you use the "best of last 3 distance/surface", so I'm curious how you landed on line 4 for this horse.

I've drawn a black line under the third race back. The last three races are all at either the same or similar distance and all are on the same surface. In addition, all of the last three races are at the same class level and the same condition. I have also noted, in red, the best adjusted speed rating of the last three races.

Isn't line 2 the line you should have used on the basis of "best of last 3 distance/surface"?

[Appy]

Really enjoyed that post Bill! Did you dutch the 4/8?