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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 09-04-2019, 08:45 PM   #41
Mitch44
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Don't feel bad as I also have problems with screen shots. Too bad its not a simple copy and paste. You have about 15 minutes to change or delete a post, if it doesn't come out correctly just delete the post and start over.


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Old 09-04-2019, 10:03 PM   #42
Bill V.
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Hi

Quote:
Originally Posted by btas1234 View Post
Thanks for the input. I haven't been able to figure our how to put a good screen shot in the thread.
Hello
I can not see your screenshot. It is too small and fuzzy.
If you tell me the race, the date and the track I can repair the screenshot

Thanks
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Old 09-04-2019, 10:20 PM   #43
btas1234
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It is Arlington on the 6th first race number 3 Touch of Disney


Thanks for the help
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Old 09-05-2019, 06:47 AM   #44
Bill V.
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Arlington

Hi
I see no problem using line 1. It is a plus race, it is recent, it's within 1/2 furlong of today's distance.
Line 5 is similar, the horse did make a middle move.
The perceptor is best on line 1


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Old 09-05-2019, 06:50 AM   #45
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Thank you
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Old 09-05-2019, 07:00 AM   #46
Bill V.
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You

You are welcome,
To answer your original question,

Let the program tell you who should be moved out of contention,

We are not so much rating horses against themselves
We are taking representative pacelines, then asking
the program to calculate those lines against the other horses
in THIS race

Once this is shown, then horses should be placed as contenders or secondary

Good Skill
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Old 09-05-2019, 10:10 PM   #47
oswaldrha
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Am I the only one worried that this is a nine year old horse who is winless in 2019? It seems a little risky going back any further than the last paceline.
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Old 09-05-2019, 11:33 PM   #48
Mitch44
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I personally would choose line # 4 for this horse.


Line 2 wrong surface, line 3 is not within 1 furlong of todays distance. That leaves lines 1,4 & 5 with the best Preceptor being line 4.


I think this horse can even run better than line 4 because his best races are all at 6 F and today he is cutting back in distance and can run faster while not decelerating as much as he would at 7 F. He is pretty consistent at the stretch call in just about all his races and recent Tot. Energy would be better at 6F.


He is pretty consistent for a 9 yr. old. As far as age its not a concern as there are probably others in this race that are old warriors. In other words the age aspect would have to be put in context of the other horses within the race. Ditto for consistency, class etc.


This is just an analysis of this horse and all this is meaningless as far as the other contenders within the race. Each contender must be evaluated before a final decision can be made. I think this horse could have been a winner this year if ran at the 6 F distance. This race may be the first carded at 6 F for a long period of time.


His M/L,APV, CSR and CR all indicate he is a contender.


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Old 09-06-2019, 02:07 PM   #49
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1-3-2-4 for this race 1st at AP


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Old 09-06-2019, 03:11 PM   #50
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Mitch,
I appreciate your thoughtful response and detailed observations. Thanks very much for your contributions to the board.
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