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Old 05-28-2019, 02:50 PM   #1
ginag2
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Bpp

Can the BPP ranking/rating be modeled, or tracked automatically via one of the templates at this point?
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Old 05-28-2019, 06:48 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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Gary, well ... 'technically' it can. But in a format ready for 'prime-time'? Not quite

The latest Export Template distributed in the last update (V2.1.049.11) is MasterTemplate4.xlsx. This template ends at Col EL which is Tote Tx2 rank # (aka P/W ratio). Some few folks might have a MasterTemplate5 which adds several newer data points including BRIS Prime Power and ProfitLine.

However, this template does not populate correctly by the current data export routine, omits data points at the end and garbles a few of them. I will replace it with MasterTemplate6 as soon as I am able to complete and test the correct export order of those last several data items.

Meanwhile, V2.1.049.11 DOES export BRIS Prime Power and its rank as the final 2 data points in the Excel Export routine (Cols ER and ES in the export file). You could modify MasterTemplate4 to add 7 new columns to the right of the last one (Col EL) so the new final Column would be Col ES.

Then when you import from the Excel export files to your modified MasterTemplate4.5 (whatever), BPP will appear in Col ER and BPP rank# in Col ES. And ProfitLine Odds will appear in Col EM.

I will add a new MasterTemplate6 with all these new data points from ProfitLine through BPP Rank# sometime this Summer. There is no guarantee those final 7 new columns wont change (there might be more, or in a different order), so you'd have to rearrange any model data you make per the suggestion above (i.e. insert a new column or rearrange some data) when the new MasterTemplate and an updated Excel Export routine arrives.

In the meantime, that is what you could do if you like

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Old 05-28-2019, 06:59 PM   #3
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FWIW, here is the list of new data points to be exported to a new MasterTemplate6 (which is NOT available yet, neither the Excel template nor the RDSS export routine). These will appear AFTER the existing end Column of MasterTemplate4 (Col EL, Tote Tx2 or P/W% Rank#).

Col EM - ProfitLine Odds
Col EN - ProfitLine Odds Rank#

Col EO - Win Odds @ a User defined MTP (e.g. 1 MTP)
Col EP - Win Odds Rank# @ a User defined MTP

Col EQ - P/W Ratio @ a User defined MTP
Col ER - P/W Ratio Rank# @ a User defined MTP

Col ES - BRIS Prime Power
Col ET - BRIS Prime Power Rank#

(I know, that's 8 new columns compared to the 7 new columns I referred to above. Add 1 more column for ProfitLine Odds Rank#. Again, export templates modified before this new one is available will simply have to have a new Column inserted after Col EM.)

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Old 05-29-2019, 08:47 AM   #4
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Thanks much Ted - appreciate it . . . I'll set up a new modified Template 4 spreadsheet. Gary
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Old 08-25-2019, 11:06 AM   #5
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Master Template

Ted etal.

I have found master template 4 in the models folder. From reading various threads, it appears that there is a master template 5. If there is a newer template, where can it be found?

MNL97
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Old 08-26-2019, 01:19 AM   #6
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FWIW, while on the subject on Brisnet's Prime Power, I wonder the stats about the winner within the Top 5 horses? Like ProfitLine can hit well with the winner showing up within the Top 5 ranked horses, but what about BPP?

Top Prime Power horses by 3 full points (3.0+) or better won 39% of the time!
Top Prime Power horses by six full points (6.0+) or better won 46% of the time!
Top Prime Power horses by ten full points (10.0+) or better won 55% of the time!

Dirt favorites that were not ranked first on Prime Power (false favorites) won only 27% of the time and returned -.51 for every $2 wagered. However, favorites which were on top on Prime Power won 38% with a -.26 ROI.

They have an ongoing thread about Prime Power on PA, and people are saying about how dis accurate the numbers were and now they are good. Seems like the topics I used to post on there were not good, and now others are doing the same sorta threads I used to do, but lets not get that into another ban here

I personally use BPP for exotics or when I feel like I need to separate a horse or 2 after handicapping with my methods. BPP is good for either tie breakers and not selections.

Flying home from LA shortly at 12:05am tomorrow PT. Been a awesome week with bro and sis. Till next time LA, old friend!
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Last edited by CheckMark; 08-26-2019 at 01:27 AM.
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Old 08-26-2019, 09:12 AM   #7
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnl97 View Post
Ted etal.

I have found master template 4 in the models folder. From reading various threads, it appears that there is a master template 5. If there is a newer template, where can it be found?

MNL97

Sorry, there is nothing newer. Please see my first post above. Template6 will be in the next release.


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Old 08-26-2019, 09:18 AM   #8
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Conley for what it's worth Prime power has the winner in the top 5 about 90%of the time and is a very powerful contender selection method.. Be careful about falling into the trap that the top pick is an automatic play. There are times when the #1 got its' ranking on a different surface then today.The rankings are merely a guide to contenders. Doc always warned not to fall in love with the top 2 tiered horses. Your wagers should be YOUR top 2 not necessarily the programs' top 2 tiered horses.
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Old 08-27-2019, 02:34 PM   #9
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Conley for what it's worth Prime power has the winner in the top 5 about 90%of the time and is a very powerful contender selection method.. Be careful about falling into the trap that the top pick is an automatic play. There are times when the #1 got its' ranking on a different surface then today.The rankings are merely a guide to contenders. Doc always warned not to fall in love with the top 2 tiered horses. Your wagers should be YOUR top 2 not necessarily the programs' top 2 tiered horses.
Tim
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Old 08-29-2019, 07:28 PM   #10
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Using the numbers to your advantage :
So I have a number, (haha ... WAY too many) of "research" lines going ... one of which is how best to use BPP.

Apart from the usual numbers to keep in a general profile, to determine how their (Brisnet) models work in what kinds of races, I keep a set of "advantage" numbers.

What I do, is divide the top BPP in a race, divided by the sum of the next two. Also I keep the top two, divided by the next three. Generally the "average" of the 1st number is around .50, and .70 would be the general result of the second.

For an example of how these could be useful, was the 9th race at Monmouth last Saturday 8/24 ... a turf route. The 3 horse computation was .6291 and the five horse number was .7792.

That meant that what I was seeing was an unusual advantage in the top two runners. They were the 1 and the 3 post positions. They came in 1 and 2.
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