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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 01-20-2021, 09:47 AM   #11
Bill Lyster
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Attachment 49546

i Modeled all distances from Parx since the start of November. Obviously not all factors are relevant. I am still working on that part of it.

I found it useful to divide the field by top EPR and other and classify factors according to whether they were top 3 or 4 EPR or farther off pace. You can see from the data what the relative early and late breakdown is by distance.

Have fun with this.
The lines in this model are what the program spits out choosing the best of last three option. Even with this set up the results in many categories are very good.

One thing I noticed was if horses only got a top BPP or PL but no other apparently good ratings (like top 3 in several categories) it was kind of a hint to verify the line chosen and see if there were other RECENT lines that might improve that horses rankings. A good example from yesterday was Volodina in the first at PRX. The program chose one of the three last lines, but the line that represented the horse more properly was line 4.

In my modeling I broke up each distance by the top 3 or 4 EPRs and then those that were ranked lower. So for instance, at six furlongs 22 winners were top 3 EPR, BUT 30 winners were outside the top 3 EPR

I also broke out sprint to route winners and route to sprint winners. You can see the distances where that happens most often (light blue shading).

Thats all for now.

Good luck everyone.
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Old 01-20-2021, 11:41 AM   #12
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Thanks Bill for doing this

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Old 01-20-2021, 01:37 PM   #13
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The best of last 3 that the program strictly adheres to isn't the best option. In your example the horses 2nd line was on an off track and not within 1 F of today's distance. Under Sartin's guidelines this line would be eliminated thus including line 4 for consideration which is the correct line.

In order to obtain the maximum efficiency of the program all lines selected must be reviewed according to his guidelines of best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. His guidelines and a users own brain can outperform a generic and lazy automatic approach. Not all, but an instant gratification approach to races can be a recipe for disaster.

This is another reason why those that keep models should; 1. keep their own models and 2 use only races that you have handicapped. Just using a down and dirty strict rule such as last 3 can really muddy the waters of accuracy. Mediocre approaches begets mediocre results.

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Old 01-20-2021, 05:56 PM   #14
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Just an FYI on the file. I did not delete any rows, so if you want to see columns showing factors that you are interested in, just hit the column button and allow the columns of interest to be unhide or shown.
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