Boutique Meets - Best approach? - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

jms62 · 04-09-2017, 06:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeebs

A big thanks to Mick... this just happened...

Attachment 43192

Attachment 43193

Attachment 43194

That, is what we refer to in NY, as a BANG!

Your selection of running lines to produce this result is not something I could have come up with using my understanding of the methodolgy and its line selection rules. Can you be so kind as to share your thought process.

Mitch44 · 04-09-2017, 07:09 AM

Very nice hit Jeebs. BIG CONGRATS!!!!
Mitch44

mick · 04-09-2017, 08:24 AM

Good morning, Mitch.

Jeebs posted the Velocity - POH screen for his big BANG. And you recently posted a POH screen for a big winner you had and reminded us all of Brohamer's admonition that a horse needs to control two fractions, not one. Since your post, I have been clicking on the POH screen almost every race I handicap, looking for that pattern. And I've had some winners, especially with late running horses underneath in exactas. Thank you. A word in season, as the Bible says.

mowens33 · 04-09-2017, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeebs

A big thanks to Mick... this just happened...

Attachment 43192

Attachment 43193

Attachment 43194

That, is what we refer to in NY, as a BANG!

I call it show me the money!

Jeebs · 04-09-2017, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Your selection of running lines to produce this result is not something I could have come up with using my understanding of the methodolgy and its line selection rules. Can you be so kind as to share your thought process.

Thought process was that the horse was an E, and had the top F1 velocity on a mega biased speed track. The other factors were out the window. If I eliminated on TE as I normally do, the horse is out and I'm ripping.

Mitch44 · 04-09-2017, 09:33 AM

BIG CONGRATS mowens33!!!! NICE ONE!!!!

Hoe did you get that maiden in a gr.1 race?

Mitch44

mowens33 · 04-09-2017, 09:38 AM

Mitch, Thanks!

Irap, was coming off his best early/late pace number and at those odds was well worth the investment.

mowens33 · 04-09-2017, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeebs

Thought process was that the horse was an E, and had the top F1 velocity on a mega biased speed track. The other factors were out the window. If I eliminated on TE as I normally do, the horse is out and I'm ripping.

Jeebs, l like your thought process!!

Jeebs · 04-09-2017, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mowens33

I call it show me the money!

Big congrats, Mike! You had more balls than me in that race! I went in that direction but with the wrong potential speed. The megabias at KEE on dirt supercedes everything else right now.

Mitch44 · 04-09-2017, 09:55 AM

Jeebs: I had all the same lines as you except the # 7. With that horse either line 1 or 5 were the only correct lines to use. Line 1 was a turf route and today was a dirt route. Line 5 was a dirt race but at 7F which is 1.5 F diff. from todays distance. So either one violates the "Doc's"" procedures. Here is where "The Hats" rule comes;" You have to use what you have."

Now race 5 is a maiden race and people with the old premise of not using maiden lines when no longer a maiden would never use that line. With the way maiden races are today and race classification are pay absolutely no attention to class when picking pace lines.

So here your forced to use what you race either a turf line in a dirt race or a md. race 1.5 F from todays distance.
Now if you use lin1 1 on turf this horse comes up #3 on BLBL and if your a wager capper you got this. Myself I don't wager cap and use other criteria to separate my contenders which has served me very well. It's a percentage thing.

If you play to the track profile you choose L5 and a horse who in last race proved it can rate by almost winning in a route and improving form. Therefore a very gettable race indeed.

Remember Bradshaw; " Use what you have." Burn that one into your memory.
Mitch44

04-09-2017, 08:24 AM	#13
mick Abiding Student Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 711	Velocity - POH Good morning, Mitch. Jeebs posted the Velocity - POH screen for his big BANG. And you recently posted a POH screen for a big winner you had and reminded us all of Brohamer's admonition that a horse needs to control two fractions, not one. Since your post, I have been clicking on the POH screen almost every race I handicap, looking for that pattern. And I've had some winners, especially with late running horses underneath in exactas. Thank you. A word in season, as the Bible says. __________________ mick Illustrated Glossary

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04-09-2017, 07:09 AM	#12
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Very nice hit Jeebs. BIG CONGRATS!!!! Mitch44

04-09-2017, 09:33 AM	#16
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	BIG CONGRATS mowens33!!!! NICE ONE!!!! Hoe did you get that maiden in a gr.1 race? Mitch44

04-09-2017, 09:38 AM	#17
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,035	Mitch, Thanks! Irap, was coming off his best early/late pace number and at those odds was well worth the investment.

04-09-2017, 09:55 AM	#20
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Jeebs: I had all the same lines as you except the # 7. With that horse either line 1 or 5 were the only correct lines to use. Line 1 was a turf route and today was a dirt route. Line 5 was a dirt race but at 7F which is 1.5 F diff. from todays distance. So either one violates the "Doc's"" procedures. Here is where "The Hats" rule comes;" You have to use what you have." Now race 5 is a maiden race and people with the old premise of not using maiden lines when no longer a maiden would never use that line. With the way maiden races are today and race classification are pay absolutely no attention to class when picking pace lines. So here your forced to use what you race either a turf line in a dirt race or a md. race 1.5 F from todays distance. Now if you use lin1 1 on turf this horse comes up #3 on BLBL and if your a wager capper you got this. Myself I don't wager cap and use other criteria to separate my contenders which has served me very well. It's a percentage thing. If you play to the track profile you choose L5 and a horse who in last race proved it can rate by almost winning in a route and improving form. Therefore a very gettable race indeed. Remember Bradshaw; " Use what you have." Burn that one into your memory. Mitch44