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2016 Match4Cash Challenges Are You Up 4 It?

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Old 02-06-2016, 05:06 PM   #11
Bill V.
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Thank you Pook I use square cash
Its nice. I have been sending money with it for about a year with no problem. www.squareme.com

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Old 02-06-2016, 06:03 PM   #12
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No scratches.
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Old 02-06-2016, 06:07 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Capcondo View Post
No scratches.
We are doing the 10th at TP? There are four scratches 5,7,8,13.

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Old 02-06-2016, 06:37 PM   #14
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Scratches

At 6:36pm ET

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Old 02-06-2016, 06:41 PM   #15
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Sorry about the scratches. I checked equibase and didn't see that. Thanks to Pook and Ted for the corrections.
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Old 02-06-2016, 06:58 PM   #16
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Tp #10

With the scratches, it appears that the 1 and 10 are early horses. The 1 needs to be loose and the 10's last race is way better than the horse has ever run and it's on the dirt. The only other race where the 10 had the lead was a 23.0 and he was loose.

I think the race will run somewhere in the range of 23.2 for the first quarter. I'm looking for a sustained horse. The horse for me here is the 6. He got a bad start last time and has frequently run mid pack in routes.

My choice is the 6.
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Old 02-06-2016, 07:03 PM   #17
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Can't decide between Early and OTE. Project the pace to be 23 and change with 46 and change.

I have 1,9,10 early. 10 looks fast but may have too much speed inside. The 1 has the fastest time early while staying for the win. Has been off a little longer than I like but I think he is the best of the E's.

For OTE's I think the contenders are the 2,3 and 12. The 12 has matched up successfully against both 2 and 3, beating both. So 12 for me is the best OTE.

1,12
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Old 02-06-2016, 07:53 PM   #18
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I will go with the 12 and 10
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Old 02-06-2016, 10:46 PM   #19
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Earlies: I looked at the 1,9 and 10. The 1 and 10 are shippers which complicates it for me. They both seem faster than the 9 though, so I’m throwing out the 9. The 1 needs an open lead while the 10 has shown the ability to pass horses and comes off a 2-call fighting effort against a very fast pace.
Projected Pace: Tricky again because my fastest earlies are shippers. The 12 was relatively close to a 22.3 46 last time at TP so I’ll use that as my pace.
#1: Needs the lead and shouldn’t get it against the faster 10…OUT
#2: Comes off a win against FPLR at TP, contender
#3: P/S finished third against today’s POR, beaten by the 12 in that race….OUT
#4: Sus..3rd in a much slower race last time. Line 2 beaten badly in the POR tandem…OUT
#6: 2nd in a slower race and only other sprint wasn’t much at Pid…OUT
#9: Slow early…OUT
#10: Early fighter in fast time last out at HAW….I’m not experienced with Haw to TP shippers, but at least this horse seems a bit versatile. Has passed horses and held position against quick paces….Contender
#11: Sus…with ugly sprint lines…OUT
#12: P/S 2nd against todays pace last out with a nice power move. Won against a faster pace in line 2 too.

I’m down to the 2,10 and 12…I’m going with early in this race, taking the 10 to win.
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Old 02-07-2016, 12:14 PM   #20
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FWIW, the winner was no prize at EVEN odds, and, IMO, not a good test of any kind of handicapping methodology, least of all the Matchup. Agreed it was hard to foresee the final odds from the Morning Line (for me).

However, the Place horse #3 Naughty Scottie is JUST the kind of horse we NEED to be able to see, and CAN see quite clearly. The $2 Exacta of $44.60 (let alone the $6.00 Place price) gives us a reason to still play races like this when the public agrees completely with most people's handicapping analysis.

I need only make reference to the #1 Late rating AND the Binder Improver (so-called, affectionately) #1 rank in the VDC column for the #3 horse. These are horses who probably will not win, but whose counter-energy, or Late influenced energy (the VDC component) may put it in the money and usually at a good price. Bill V ('Binder') observed this phenomena long ago of a VDC rating NOT in the top 3 or so BLBL (i.e. a rating out of order with the BLBL rank). As it was, it nearly caught up to winner, losing by only a neck.

I appreciate that the Matchup is (or has been explained in the past) as primarily a Win horse approach - and maybe so, in Jim Bradshaw's hands, and others'. But in the pari-mutuel trenches, we often need to see beyond the Win position, or pass races like this.

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Congratulations to all who analysed their way to this horse!

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