Irish O'Brien Stakes - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 03-17-2008, 10:52 AM

This might be a fun race for group participation. It's the Irish O'Brien Stakes.

SA 7th -- 6 1/2f on the green.

Post time is 7:07 EDT

Here are the free past performances:

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ill_105142.pdf

chris · 03-17-2008, 12:26 PM

Interesting race!

Putting in a small Pick 6 ticket today so I did the race last night. Found what I believe are the three major contenders - could be wrong - and I believe any of them can win. Two of the three are morning line selections, so to find decent money in this race, I'll go the exotic route - Superfecta's for me.

2,5 // 3 // 2,4,5 // 2,4,5,6,10 (ten cent partial wheel - $1.20)
3 // 2,5 // 2,4,5,// 2,4,5,6,10 (ten cent partial wheel - $1.20)

What ever increment, ten cent or otherwise, I can sustain my equilibrium if I loose. This is not much money. If any go off at 3/1 or better they get a win bet as well.

Good luck,
Chris

03-17-2008, 01:19 PM

I'm giving the #8 Sumthingtotalkbt a look at 12/1 morning line.

alydar_ David · 03-17-2008, 05:23 PM

As of 5:20 P.M. EDT the turf is listed as "Firm." It's 69 degrees and clear.

#2 Swiss Diva has been scratched.

lsosa54 · 03-17-2008, 06:57 PM

1st screenshot is with the #6 off a long layoff. 2nd one is without the #6. The #7 may be an exotics play.

admin · 03-17-2008, 06:57 PM

Sorry I redid the race with the 2 scratched

Win bets # 5 and 6

Good Skill guys

Bill

hdcper · 03-17-2008, 07:09 PM

They are about to enter the gate, so I like the 3 and 8 to win

lsosa54 · 03-17-2008, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsosa54

1st screenshot is with the #6 off a long layoff. 2nd one is without the #6. The #7 may be an exotics play.

Well, I did not consider the #11 as it was tied for my lowest turf apv with the #9. I guess it had run a couple of good races at a much lower class.

The #5 was there to be bet with an S/P Presser variegate (I ended up not considering the #6). 3rd Paragon B and #2 SP.

In my infinite wisdom, I decided the #1 and #4 looked more like one run F3 horses and so I bet the #3 and #10. I did not bet the #5 due to odds.

A good example of what NOT to do.

shoeless · 03-17-2008, 07:39 PM

Playing that 6.5fur downhill turf at SA you better make darn sure the horse likes to run over that sod,it's a whole different ballgame.

shoeless · 03-17-2008, 08:05 PM

Actually just looking at the pp's you could figure the 11 in there.Two races back he catches the lead and then gets beat.Last race he closes wide to run 2nd.If you would have read Jim Lehane's book Calibration Handicapping The Next Level he deals with this type of manuever.

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03-17-2008, 10:52 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Irish O'Brien Stakes This might be a fun race for group participation. It's the Irish O'Brien Stakes. SA 7th -- 6 1/2f on the green. Post time is 7:07 EDT Here are the free past performances: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ill_105142.pdf

03-17-2008, 12:26 PM	#2
chris Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Richfield, MN Posts: 182	Irish O'Brien Stakes Interesting race! Putting in a small Pick 6 ticket today so I did the race last night. Found what I believe are the three major contenders - could be wrong - and I believe any of them can win. Two of the three are morning line selections, so to find decent money in this race, I'll go the exotic route - Superfecta's for me. 2,5 // 3 // 2,4,5 // 2,4,5,6,10 (ten cent partial wheel - $1.20) 3 // 2,5 // 2,4,5,// 2,4,5,6,10 (ten cent partial wheel - $1.20) What ever increment, ten cent or otherwise, I can sustain my equilibrium if I loose. This is not much money. If any go off at 3/1 or better they get a win bet as well. Good luck, Chris

03-17-2008, 01:19 PM	#3
Turf Speculator Guest Posts: n/a	I'm giving the #8 Sumthingtotalkbt a look at 12/1 morning line.

03-17-2008, 05:23 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	As of 5:20 P.M. EDT the turf is listed as "Firm." It's 69 degrees and clear. #2 Swiss Diva has been scratched. Attached Images

03-17-2008, 06:57 PM	#5
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	1st screenshot is with the #6 off a long layoff. 2nd one is without the #6. The #7 may be an exotics play. Last edited by lsosa54; 08-25-2008 at 09:26 PM.

03-17-2008, 06:57 PM	#6
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Rerun Sorry I redid the race with the 2 scratched Win bets # 5 and 6 Good Skill guys Bill

03-17-2008, 07:09 PM	#7
hdcper AlwNW1X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 18	They are about to enter the gate, so I like the 3 and 8 to win

03-17-2008, 07:39 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Playing that 6.5fur downhill turf at SA you better make darn sure the horse likes to run over that sod,it's a whole different ballgame.

03-17-2008, 08:05 PM	#10
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Actually just looking at the pp's you could figure the 11 in there.Two races back he catches the lead and then gets beat.Last race he closes wide to run 2nd.If you would have read Jim Lehane's book Calibration Handicapping The Next Level he deals with this type of manuever.