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Old 01-27-2012, 09:57 AM   #1
For The Lead
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MODELING - Does it matter?

Here is a handicapping statistic I keep and the results of that statistic for the current month of January.
It has a dollar net of $1.85 based on a single horse bet. Not too impressive, is it?
At this point the only surface that is not included is turf.

It seems many people (not all) only model on the basis of ‘distance and surface’. Well, as you can see the $1.85 dollar net is all inclusive except for turf, so let’s take a deeper look at this. I’ll break these races down by race type.

ST (stake races).................= $1.50 dollar net
AL(allowance race).............= $0.58 dollar net
SA (starter hcp races).........= $1.27 dollar net
MS (maiden special weight)..=$0.48 dollar net
MC (maiden claiming)..........= $1.13 dollar net
OC (optional claiming).........= $1.94 dollar net

We started with a dollar net of $1.85 and except for the 'OC' which is $1.94 (just .09 higher) these are terrible, but if they are terrible then something had to be good. It was.

CL (claiming races)...= $2.46 dollar net
I have taken a dollar net that is much better than average and yet still a loser at $1.85 and found something that has a dollar net of $2.46 or an ROI of +23%, just by breaking down the races by race type.

But let’s take an even closer look. What happens if we break this down by sex?
CL/males.....= $2.18
CL/females..= $2.83

Both are winners, but I like $2.83 a lot better than $2.18.

Like I said at the start, I only excluded turf, so let’s see how this does on dirt and artificial surfaces.
Dirt........= $2.43
Artificial..= $2.51

Not much difference there

Let’s take a look at some extremes with different tracks.
Track A...= $1.41(lowest)
Track B...= $3.39(highest)

Enough said there.

How about distances?
Sprints...= $2.00
Routes...= $3.22

Enough said there as well.

Oh, remember that 'OC' with a $1.94 dollar net? Let's take another look at that. I'll break it down by sex.

OC/males......=$2.39
OC/females...=$1.23

You just never know if you don't look.

So you see what you can do with something that initially appears to be a loser when you break races down into various categories.

If you aren’t modeling, maybe you should be.
If you are only modeling distance and surface, maybe you should reconsider you approach to modeling.

Just some food for thought.
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Old 01-27-2012, 10:08 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Facts

Thank you FTL

Thank you for taking the time to share this with us
I'm positive it will be a big help
I appreciate your efforts to bring extra tools to our group
rather than good guesses

Good Skill
Bill
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Old 01-27-2012, 10:14 AM   #3
Bill V.
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Alw

Hi FTL

I see the ALW races are low
Do you know if this is from NW1 or are the NW2, 3 4, or restricted
to state bred type that are better than others

I seem to have more problems with non winner 1 other than maiden claiming or starter The more a horse wins I seem to do better I do better in better races than with young maiden winners and I do not do many maiden races at all

Bill
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Old 01-27-2012, 11:16 AM   #4
partsnut
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Thank you FTL

Thank you for taking the time to share this with us
I'm positive it will be a big help
I appreciate your efforts to bring extra tools to our group
rather than good guesses

Good Skill
Bill
The Information presented by FTL is quite interesting.
I hope his hard work pays off for him. At any rate, it looks like it is the labor of love. Thank you for you efforts and sharing.

As of late, I have been finding that the biggest prices and profit
come from the very contentious types of races (The Cheaper The Better). There are some exacta players on this board that would agree with me.
They have had success at MNR, PHA and DEL.
I don't model, I have tried on a few occasions and felt it was a waste of time. I leave the modeling to those that play just one track. Tom Brohamer did this at Santa Anita. He was a one track specialist.

There are specific type of races and specific type of horses at value odds that appeal to me.
My method is simple. look for specific patterns and angles in contentious races. Dirt, Turf, AW, Fast, Sloppy, Muddy or Wet.
Look for the things that will not be seen by others. I look for value.

I can't add much more then that.

I personally do not care for the exotics. That is why my recent efforts have been focused on pattern recognition, angle play and strictly win betting which does involve some good guesses.

If I guess right in one out of 7-10 races odds permitting, I will be ahead of the game.

Horse Racing is a numbers game.

Last edited by partsnut; 01-27-2012 at 11:18 AM.
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Old 01-27-2012, 01:02 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi FTL

I see the ALW races are low
Do you know if this is from NW1 or are the NW2, 3 4, or restricted
to state bred type that are better than others

I seem to have more problems with non winner 1 other than maiden claiming or starter The more a horse wins I seem to do better I do better in better races than with young maiden winners and I do not do many maiden races at all

Bill
What I showed was inclusive of all allowance races.
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Old 01-27-2012, 01:33 PM   #6
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FTL, may I ask is this all tracks and or just a few select tracks, like A/B/C/D or I am sure and have tried modeling, as Bill stated it was a labor of love that I found very hard to keep up with, not that the info would not be helpful, that much is obvious.

Wow we been getting great stuff here lately, thanks everyone for sharing all this, and RDSS or P&C forum has some of the very best players out there, look at the top of the leaderboards, but even more are the people who do not play the contest still contribute here, for which I am myself am very greatful for, as I have taken a little here and there and become a more expericend and patient player, with lots of work left to be done, but very much better than , say 2 years ago, most in part to this community, thanks .

patrick
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Old 01-27-2012, 02:02 PM   #7
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[QUOTE=For The Lead;77481]

ST (stake races).................= $1.50 dollar net
AL(allowance race).............= $0.58 dollar net
SA (starter hcp races).........= $1.27 dollar net
MS (maiden special weight)..=$0.48 dollar net
MC (maiden claiming)..........= $1.13 dollar net
OC (optional claiming).........= $1.94 dollar net

We started with a dollar net of $1.85 and except for the 'OC' which is $1.94 (just .09 higher) these are terrible, but if they are terrible then something had to be good. It was."


FTL:
If I understand you correctly are you saying that Claiming races are excluded from the above sample? I assume that you do not consider optional claiming races as claiming races even at the lower end of the spectrum (like OC 25 NW whatever?) - is this the case?

Eye opening post and thanks for sharing.

Bill
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Old 01-27-2012, 03:47 PM   #8
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[QUOTE=Bill Lyster;77495]
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post

ST (stake races).................= $1.50 dollar net
AL(allowance race).............= $0.58 dollar net
SA (starter hcp races).........= $1.27 dollar net
MS (maiden special weight)..=$0.48 dollar net
MC (maiden claiming)..........= $1.13 dollar net
OC (optional claiming).........= $1.94 dollar net

We started with a dollar net of $1.85 and except for the 'OC' which is $1.94 (just .09 higher) these are terrible, but if they are terrible then something had to be good. It was."


FTL:
If I understand you correctly are you saying that Claiming races are excluded from the above sample? I assume that you do not consider optional claiming races as claiming races even at the lower end of the spectrum (like OC 25 NW whatever?) - is this the case?

Eye opening post and thanks for sharing.

Bill
Hello Bill,

No, sorry if I wasn't clear. The beginning sample that returned a dollar net of $1.85 included all of the above as well as "CL" (claiming races). What I did was break down that $1.85 by race types, showing all the negative dollar nets first. Having completed that, the only race type left was "CL" (claiming races), which is where the profit from this particular stat came from. Without breaking it down this way, you would just look at the original $1.85 and say "oh well".
Then I went further and further by breaking just the claiming races down by sex. Then by surface. Then I showed the return for the worst track and the best track. Finally, I went back to the "OC" that was $1.94 and simply broke that down by sex to show that there was, indeed, a profit there as well.

No, I don't consider an optional claiming race (OC) to be the same as a claiming race (CL). The reason being, if you look at the entire condition, it is an Allowance Optional Claiming race and they are run under allowance type conditions, such as NW1X, NW2X and etc.

My point to this thread was to simply point out, that if you only model by distance and surface, you may not find profitable areas that can be exploited.
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Old 01-29-2012, 07:21 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partsnut View Post
The Information presented by FTL is quite interesting.
I hope his hard work pays off for him. At any rate, it looks like it is the labor of love. Thank you for you efforts and sharing.

I don't model, I have tried on a few occasions and felt it was a waste of time. I leave the modeling to those that play just one track. Tom Brohamer did this at Santa Anita. He was a one track specialist.

Horse Racing is a numbers game.
Although I appreciate the good wishes, this is not something that I hope WILL pay off for me, rather, it is something that HAS been paying off for me for years. My “efforts” here are for the purpose of “sharing”, in the hope that others may learn and improve.

As you have been saying, horse racing is a numbers game and you are correct. Horse racing is a “maze” of numbers without meaning unless you keep records.

The dollar net for all winners at all tracks every year is $1.54, give or take a penny based on the given year. Whether one thinks so or not, that is a tough maze to find your way out of in order to reach the break even point, let alone reach a respectable profit. Without record keeping (modeling) you have two chances, slim and none.

I took a random year and did some dollar nets for a variety of tracks. Here are the results.
TAM=$1.55
GP..=$1.57
PIM=$1.50
HOU=$1.50
FG..=$1.50
AQU=$1.59
SA..=$1.57
HOL=$1.50
PRX=$1.56
PEN=$1.50
OP..=$1.46
TP..=$1.50

As you can see, it doesn’t matter which track you are playing, your work is cut out for you. In order to win, you have to keep records (modeling) so you can find where the profits are.

Just a note here; I didn’t accumulate 600,000 races by being a “one track” player.

Also, this is the first time I have ever heard someone categorize Tom Brohamer as a “one trick pony”. The man has probably “forgotten” more about handicapping than most handicappers “know”!

Was he a one track specialist or did he “make his bones” before the advent of the internet and simulcasting came along, forcing him to play just one track…like everybody else?!

At any rate, here are the results of another statistic I keep. For the entire year of 2011, this statistic returned a dollar net of $2.82. That dollar net was based on a single horse bet with a win rate of 27% and an “average” win price of $10.38.

This statistic produced these optimum profits from 3 race classes, maiden claiming, maiden special weight and claiming. Naturally, there were some tracks that did better than others. These results come from the tracks that did best. Without modeling, be it one track or multiple tracks, these profitable areas would not be known.
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Old 01-29-2012, 08:50 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
...
How about distances?
Sprints...= $2.00
Routes...= $3.22...
Interesting. It's the opposite for me. Although this is slightly off-topic as it deals with record keeping and not modeling I offer the following as an incentive for you to keep your own records and find out what works for you.

For Single Horse Win bets:

*Dirt Claiming and Allowance sprints generate my highest win percentage.

*Turf routes have the greatest ROI.

*I've lost money on artifical surfaces with the exception of Woodbine.

Based on fixed odds of 7/2, and pari-mutuel odds of 4-1 at post time my overall ROI for year was 1.13 (or a $Net of $2.26). However this is somewhat overinflated as rebates are included.

So, based on my record keeping the only artfical surface I'll be win betting for 2012 is Woodbine.

Record keeping -- it's a pain in the keister...but without it...well, you get the picture.
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