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10-24-2013, 09:34 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
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betting odds
While recording results this am, I came up with a question that I thought I'd bring up here.
Should we be willing to take betting odds on our picks by the final ranking we give them? Final ranking could be BL/BL, line scores or match ups or as I see people on here, list 4 horses they like, ex: 8-3-5-2 etc. Should our betting require higher odds on the 4th pick than the 2nd pick or 1st pick? Could we require something like: 2:1 on the top pick, 3:1 on the second pick, 4 or 5:1 on the third pick and 8:1 or higher on the 4th? (Odds listed for example purposes only) From reading on here, many players are requiring odds of better than 5:2 on 2 horses to make a wager. Should that be changed to asking for odds by our individual rankings? I know from my records (400 races only, small sample) that my top rated horse wins 34% of the time with an average payoff of $7.02. The second ranked horse wins 23% with ave. payoff of $7.66. By the time I get to the 5th rated horse, I only have a win% of 5% but the ave. payoff is $12.44. This is the reason I ask the question. Ray PS. I realize I need to do better on line selection or something to get a better win% from all positions. |
10-24-2013, 11:01 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Betting odds
Ray, you have the answer to your question in your records.
Your win percentages by rank gives you your answer. Example: top pick 34% = 2/1 minimum to break even. 2nd pick 23% = 7/2 minimum to break even your 5th horse at 5% = 20/1 minimum Some authors say you should have at least a 50% overlay in order to make a bet. others say it should be higher. As for paceline selection FTLs guidelines are a very good way to go. Personally I use the best of the last 3 COMPARABLE for each of my contenders. Either of these will get you a high percentage of winners in your top 4 or 5 contenders. From your records I am making the assumption that you are getting around 80 to 85% winners in your top 5. My suggestion would be to work on your pacelines and try to get a few more of your 3rd, 4th, and 5th horses to move up into your top 2 or 3. From your post this would be my suggestion. I hope this will be of some help to you. PS: If you would like to discuss any of this, feel fre to pm me and we can get together on skype. rmath |
10-24-2013, 03:38 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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odds
Ray, here is a race I played at Kee today. My two main win bets were the #3 at 5/2 and the #10 at 4/1.
I also played a 2.00 wps ticket on the #1 horse since he was in my top 4 and was well over my minimum odds to qualify as a saver. I also played the 1-3-10 exacta box for a dollar. I posted this hoping to show you how I make my betting decisions based on the postime odds of my contenders. |
10-24-2013, 09:42 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA.
Posts: 2,531
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yea! good win rmath!
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10-25-2013, 06:22 AM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
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Quote:
I am using a 2 horse win system at the present. I haven't gotten into dutching so am using a 5% of total balance as the amount I bet. Actually I got nervous when the betting got above $20 per race ($10 per horse) and have stayed at $20. I am trying to look at this betting through a EV point of view. Examples to follow: If I play my #1 pick to win (34% wins) at 2:1 odds ($6.00) my EV is $0.72. One horse betting. Now if I go to 2 horse win and use my #1 and #2 picks (34% & 23% wins), ($6.00 and $8.00 pay outs), my EV goes up to $2.16. However if I use my #1 & #5 pick and still get 2:1 odds & 3:1 odds I have a 0-EV situation. If I want to get "about" the same EV as with my #1 & #2 picks ($2.16), I would have to get 25:1 with my 5th choice, for an EV of $2.20. I would need 7:1 and 9:1 with my 3 & 4th picks for EV's of $2.20 and $2.28. All the above is using the win% of my top rated horse, winning 34%. If I wanted to get about the same EV with one horse betting, I would need 4:1 odds, while holding the 34%. (+EV $2.08) If I increase the odds I am willing to accept on the #1 pick to 5:2 (2.5:1) then my #2 pick can drop from 3:1 to 5:2 and still have a +EV of $2.27. At 5.2, my 3rd and 4th rated horses drop to 6:1 and 7:1 while having +EV's of $2.26 and $2.14 respectfully. The 5th choice drops to 20:1 with an +EV of just over $2.00 ($2.04). Note I continue to use the %'s that my readouts give for the winning chances of each horses rating. If I can get the %'s higher in the #1 position, I should be able to use a lower odds horse and still maintain a fairly constant EV across the betting spectrum. Sorry for this being so long but I wanted to post it all to see if what I am looking at and how I am going about my EV formula is correct. I am not the best at math, rmath. Now to read your second post. Ray |
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10-25-2013, 06:43 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
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nice win
rmath,
I have not gotten into exotic betting very much but think your approach is very interesting. Actually, I suck at exotic betting, always have. To many 1st and 3rd's or 2nd and 3rd's. I have read, but only once, the 55% solution but need more reading on exacta or double betting. I don't think I have ever done well trying to play the pick 3. I am just getting back into horse handicapping since being away from it for about 10 years. I would like to get my winning %'s up a bit higher in my 2 horse win betting, then add some exotic betting, but will also need a separate bankroll for that. I don't do much 1 horse betting either. Although at one time I thought betting 2 horses was crazy. However, since coming to this site it has been the best bankroll builder, at least for me. Looking forward to viewing the Breeder's Cup races. Might have a win bet or 2 on them. Ray |
10-25-2013, 07:11 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
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Good job rmath!
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Terry |
10-25-2013, 10:10 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Thanks
Thanks you guys.
Ray, Since you are not comfortable with betting more than 20.00 in a race I would suggest that you follow Docs guidelines and bet 60-40 on two horses. This is what I do if both of my top 2 horses are at acceptable odds with one minute to post. If your top horse is too low of odds, say 6/5 then you have to decide if you want play your 2nd , third or 4th horses if their odds are high enough to make the risk worthwhile. Personally when my #1 horse is to low of odds I pass the race. For me this is the best way to go as my top horse hits at 40% rate. I usually only get 3 or 4 possible plays at any one track each day. I have very strict guidelines that I follow to find a playable race. 1) Only non maiden races with a minimum of 8 betting interests. 2) only races from 5.5f to 8.5f. 3) if two or more of my final 5 horses have not run at todays distance ( sprint or route) then I up my minimum odds OR pass the race. Ray, I am like you. Most of my bets are win & place only. I only play in the exotic when the odds on my top two are above 4/1 and my 3rd, 4th or 5th horse or horses are at least 10/1. This way you have a good chance to make a nice score. Good luck. rmath |
10-26-2013, 06:51 AM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
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Quote:
Ray |
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10-26-2013, 11:57 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Ray,
Most ADW's that I know of have some method of specifying a custom win bet unit, not just the default increments $10 then $15 and nothing in between or below (e.g. $20 unit total dutched 60/40 = $12 and $8). Even if it means typing in the amount each time, there's usually some way. Which ADW are you using? Ted
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