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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 03-28-2021, 12:35 PM   #1
57viking
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Which Race to pick for the paceline

In yesterdays Florida Derby , I had trouble picking the paceline for this horse. I usually just go with the RDSS2 suggestion , but in this case , that line had it rated as the #2 VDC , #3 BL and # 2 RX3.

If you picked the first pace line ( the only dirt line ) ,
it rated near the bottom.

Thoughts ? Jim
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Old 03-28-2021, 01:58 PM   #2
Mitch44
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57viking:


I would have used line #1 for several reasons: its the best Preceptor, the horse is a 3 yr. old, they can improve dramatically and sudden, their more recent races are more predicable as to form, it also is closer todays distance of 9 F and in line one it closed from a fast early pace.

As Bradshaw said; "You have to use what's there." This isn't an uncommon problem. What players do is pick a line and than forget about it. Once all lines are picked they need to be reviewed for distances and surfaces. Personally I downgrade any horse whose line does not match today's surface. Workouts can also provide a clue along with trainers stats as to their taking to another surface.

Distances changes require more analysis using % Med, can a horse rate etc. Anytime you use a lesser distance line its going to get favored in the readouts, such as using an 8 F line for a 1/14 race. The shorter the race the faster they are run and their not likely to carry that speed at longer distances. The readouts favor the fastest horses that can finish.The exceptions are high quality Grades horses and so forth.

Once you have selected lines for all horses, they must be reviewed and a determination made as to their validity. Are they accurate or need to be downgraded? No one rule applies to all situations encountered. The closest you'll come to a rule isn't really a rule but is Sartin's guidelines of selecting the best race of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface, use the Preceptor to help get the correct line.

Think of it as I do, comparable also means to me comparable to the lines picked for the other horses that you make contenders.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-28-2021 at 02:04 PM.
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Old 03-28-2021, 02:54 PM   #3
rdiam
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Hindsight is 20/20: in this case, the most predictive line was the dirt line as this was about how the horse ran in the Fla Derby. You have to ask yourself (before the race): why is this horse in the race? It had been improving on the turf, and showed nothing in its only dirt race. It is stepping up to a Grade 1 race with only a maiden win (on the turf). The trainer is experimenting, or the owners are hoping for a KY Derby contender. Even though the last race on turf is closest to today's distance, the surface change probably overrides using it given how the horse has performed up to today's race.

Richard
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Old 03-28-2021, 05:56 PM   #4
Mitch44
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I would never use a 6 F line for a 9F race unless that was the only line a horse had. The 6 horse was really a non-contender but that wasn't the question.

Due to the way races are carded they are forced to race at conditions such as dis. and surface that are not ideal for a sharp horse. Also with 3 year old's they experiment to find out what the horse is good at and prefers when it comes to dis. and surface, at least a smart trainer does or quickly finds out. The good trainers can find out much about their horses through training as to their preferences.

Good luck finding races and horses where they all have been running to todays conditions. A handicapper must be able to deal with stretch outs, cutbacks surface changes etc.

Mitch44
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Old 03-28-2021, 06:08 PM   #5
rdiam
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Agree that the horse was a non-contender. The tip off was a negative jockey switch to a jock with an 8% win rate in a Grade 1 race. Doubtful this horse was running for anything other than exercise. Shows the importance of only including true contenders for the computer to rate...otherwise you end up with inaccurate readouts as happened here.

Richard
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Old 03-28-2021, 07:43 PM   #6
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In this case, if I made the horse a contender,[which it was not] I would have ben forced to use one of the top 2 turf lines. I would not use the 6f sprint since it was a mdn race and I don't use mdn lines in races above the n2l level. Also I stick with Docs' guideline that G1/G2 races are won by horses that have won or placed in such a race. I understand that these 3 yr old stakes at this point of the yr present a unique situation but overall the Docs' guideline works well.
Tim
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Old 03-28-2021, 08:28 PM   #7
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Thanks everyone for the responses. In the end I did not use the 6 in any bets, but went back and forth for awhile.


Tim, would it have met your LS criteria ?
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Old 03-29-2021, 06:37 AM   #8
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I didn't look at the race live so I don't know. I basically use Richie Mathies' angle which if a non contender ranks in the top 5 of both VDC and CSR it qualifies. Naturally that's the bare minimum. I want to see some top 3 rankings in the primary or supplemental corollaries before I get really interested.
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