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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-11-2021, 09:45 PM   #1
Psychotic Parakeet
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Lightbulb Post-Arkansas Derby

It appeared that Concert Tour was the one to beat, but obviously, Super Stock stole the show. I am curious how some of you stayed away from betting on him [Concert Tour]? The only clue I could find is that the race showed up as a potential 3-E horse race, which usually means all of those designated horses won't win. It is obvious that Last Samurai was too slow, and was not a threat picking up the pieces as the lone "S" horse in the race. Hozier looked to be a stronger bet over Super Stock, but ran terribly.

I would really like to know what I missed here, as I feel stupid for not figuring it out beforehand. Thank you!
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Old 04-12-2021, 08:29 AM   #2
Mitch44
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Hello Laura,

Here is what I can determine by your screen shot of the Original screen tab:

1. You used the last line for every horse.

a. I follow the Sartin guideline of using the best line of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Comparable distance is a race within 1 F of todays distance. Surface, turf and Syn. are interchangeable. I do not use off track lines even if the track is sloppy, The old mud tales just doesn't hold up and the best horse still wins.

b. You need to become attuned to the power of the Preceptor as a tool to picking pace lines.

c. I my self would have used lines # 2 for horses #1,2 & 4

2. ESP On the screen you show and on other screens in the program the RS represents the Visual ESP. and some of these ESP for the horses are wrong. A horse can lead and go wire to wire and not be an E type horse.
a. Become aware of % Med for the correct ESP of horses. It is much more accurate than the visual ESP. The % Med ESP is under ESP not RS, usually their next to each other but not on this particular screen.

3. Despite these mistakes on your screen shot the winner #1 horses was third on BLBL(the best Factor on this screen)
a. Sartin guideline is any horse in your top 3 going off at 9-2 and higher should be bet at least $2

4. Rework this race:
a. Change pace lines for horses 1,2 & 4 and choose Line 2 for those horses
1. once done now review the ESP % Med for all your horses verses the RS ESP, you can see this on the Energy screen.
b. Go to each horse's PP's within RDSS and to the far right, look at the Precept Total( Preceptor) of the chosen lines. Also compare the line chosen Preceptor to the horses' other lines etc.
c. There are better screens to make final decisions from than the Original Screen, such as RX screen. The best RDSS Factors are V/DC, BLBL and the Primary Line Score in that order, Bris Factors are Bris PP and Profit(PL) and readouts with a combination of RDSS and Bris Factors.

5. Read my post "Beginners and Refresher Course" for valuable do's and not to do's. Here's the link: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12316

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-12-2021 at 08:31 AM.
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Old 04-12-2021, 04:08 PM   #3
CheckMark
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Here is how I broke down the race using my longshot spotter system for fun:

1) Shows my longshot system angle right off the bat! Lots of positives to like here with the addition of Santana and connecting with Asmussen which you know would be strong in this race! Was looking for 10-1+ and got it with him going off at 12-1! Won with a game effort

2) Low odds and no longshot angle here; does top on BPP though and was worth a look in exotics

3) Decent odds and no longshot angle; has a good workout pattern and gets Garcia to stay on

4) Longshot angle! Not sure how well the jockey switch would do but he did also go off at 10-1 so would have bet him along with the #1

5) Was expected to be the favorite which no one likes a $3 winner for profit lol; shows my longshot angle but wouldn't get up to acceptable odds

6) Good value on odds but sadly does not show my longshot pattern

Final result: If I were to bet this race with my longshot spotter system I would have bet on the #1 and #4 which the #1 ended up winning the race for a $26.40 price; #4 got 4th and was far back behind the #5

All in all, is that you can always go back and handicap the race like what I did and see what you missed so next time a certain situation comes up you are ready to pounce on that juicy longshot or exotic!

Good luck in your future bets!
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Old 04-12-2021, 06:59 PM   #4
57viking
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Hi Mitch ....can you explain why you would have picked Line #2 for horses 1,2, and 4. The highest perceptor number in all 3 cases is line #1. Jim
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Old 04-12-2021, 07:39 PM   #5
Mitch44
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Sure 57 Viking:

I picked those lines from the Bris PP's not from RDSS. I'm waiting for the next update in RDSS to renew my membership. This is why I emphasized using the best Preceptor, which when I use the program I defer to.

Many horses can be gotten with more than one line, or in other words more than one line will get it in the top 3.

Another thing is when lines are very close such as in this case, both lines can be checked. Just check them and see which one comes up best from the computer program(RDSS). Keep in mind that the Preceptor rates each line of a horse against its self. The true Match Up is how the line stacks up against the other contenders, you can get that by the readouts such as BLBL & V/DC. Note: this is only for lines that are very close, normally this isn't the case, but occasionally a couple of lines can be very close.

Because this horse is stretching out in distance, L 2 has more HE and a greater 3rd FR and overall less deceleration I would use it. Check it out with the other horses for a true Match Up and tell me which line comes up best 1 or 2. Even in this case I probably would use line 2. Those that don't understand deceleration, Match Up and Energy distribution I recommend use the best Preceptor as it will up your game tremendously. See my thread on Deceleration.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-12-2021 at 07:43 PM.
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Old 04-12-2021, 08:05 PM   #6
rmath
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When I ran this race , using the best of last three perceptor and got line 2 for the one horse.
I won this race and the P-5.
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Old 04-13-2021, 12:30 AM   #7
Psychotic Parakeet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
5. Read my post "Beginners and Refresher Course" for valuable do's and not to do's. Here's the link: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12316

Mitch44
Hi, Mitch.

I sincerely appreciate that you took the time to not only write all of this, but your superbly-detailed explanations via the link provided. I spent the window of quiet time this afternoon while my newborn and toddler took a nap at the same time to read-up, and learned from my mistakes by revisiting past cards. I look forward to applying the newly-found knowledge, as well as a smarter approach, on future races. Thank you very much again for helping me focus in the correct direction.

-Laura
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Old 04-13-2021, 12:35 AM   #8
Psychotic Parakeet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
When I ran this race , using the best of last three perceptor and got line 2 for the one horse.
I won this race and the P-5.
Rmath
Congratulations, Rmath! Excellent job!
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Old 04-13-2021, 07:30 AM   #9
Mitch44
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Your welcome Laura, congrats on the new baby.


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Old 04-13-2021, 11:31 AM   #10
57viking
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The difference between what I picked using the preceptor and what RMath picked using the preceptor , I believe is a difference in the configuration. RMath, based on a post on your 4 factor methodology that Ted did , I think you use 100% of the DTV and set your limits at +-25% versus the defaults of 50% of the DTV and +-15%. I changed them to yours and reassembled the race. Below is how the 1 Horse now looks . Line #2 is the best preceptor rating. This also changed the 2 Horses best preceptor race to Line #2 as well.

The result of this moved some of the ratings around , probably most importantly the 1 Horse is now the #2 rated VDC. Overall it still is 3rd rated , but certainly moved it up in the rankings.
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