E% to Running Styles

[Ted Craven]

FWIW, sort also by Visual Running Style, used by many Matchers (Mark, feel free to comment).



Ted

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Thank you for posting examples of today's races, Ted. I noticed that the top ones for their respective racing styles finished 1-2. This is showing major promise as a great tool.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Parakeet;

There is a distinct difference between the visual and % MED ESP. The % MED is much more accurate. Horses that get the lead tend to loaf on the lead unless challenged by another horse or by the closers. They(especially) the really good one's only due what is necessary to win that race or particular Match UP.

Also this time of the year their trying to rate or slow these horses down in order to stretch them out to get the Derby distance. Some of then refuse and burn themselves out as the distances increase. Others are more trackable and will settle and make their runs in the stretch.

Early horses with high % Med of 70% seldom win unless up against other's who also run that way. They burn themselves out and run into a brick wall as their gutted( sharp deceleration). These types are also more efficient at shorter distances such as 5F or 5.5 F.

Many horses can't win against certain Pace of the Race(POR) scenarios, energy used up early is unavailable late. The best horses are those that can overcome the POR. The better the horse the higher its Total Energy and it has reserve energy to overcome the POR to include a fast POR.

Understanding % Med helps to eliminate horses too fast and also too late(one run closers) in certain matchups. % Med can also be used to determine if a horse can stretch out or if their too fast to do that.

Certain tracks favor a particular % Med such as Early or even Sustained. Its not unusual for a track to favor E in sprints and Sustained in routes. Smart trainers and owners are well aware of this, but not by % Med which is more accurate. They will ship horses to tracks that favor their horses style. I.e. if an E horse they'll send it to MTH or SA. If too early to win at those track(70%) they'll send to a track that cards a lot of 5 F or 5.5 F races, the shorter distances allows them to carry their speed more to the wire. That last FR at Major tracks of 2F in sprints is just too much with their high deceleration and high % Med to get up. Note: some connection's never figure this out and keep running a horse at a distance and surface where it can't win. We have tools such as % Med where we know their horse better than they do and can detect if its properly placed, which helps to eliminate contenders.

As these races for 3 yr. old's increase to 9F it starts to separate horses that are just too early to get the distance and win.

Bottom line is most don't understand % Med and ignore it, today's players are into instant gratification. Put them in the computer and let it rip.

In RDSS sorting your contenders by ESP(% MED ) NOT the VISUAL ESP can help decipher a race and determine the best E type(E,Ep & P) or best S Type. This brings much more clarity to Factors, your analysis and final decision making..

Ted said he would put a button in the new program to sort ESP by running styles, not sure if that has been done yet.

Mitch44

I appreciate your explanation on this, Mitch. Using Med% and combining it with TTL appear to be a productive pair of tools for handicapping these races.

[Mitch44]

Not only those two Parakeet consider the track also. I.e. Philadelphia Park also favors early speed so the sort helps to determine who the best E, Ep & P are and who are the worse S types.

Look at Ted's screen shot: horses that can put together two good Fractions are the better horses as they put pressure on the other runners. Horses that show a dip or decline in the 2nd FR don't put together two good FF.'s and may get a placing but seldom win. Horses that show a big increase in the 2nd FR but have a weak 1st & 3rd FR tend to get in the money but seldom win.

Its not how fast they are or Tot. Energy,but its how they run fast. The decision process here is much easier when you know PRX favors speed and this race at 8 F, 75% of the race is over at the SC.

DCL: Don't be fooled by this on this screen, the fastest horses decelerate the most so the lower numbers by ESP are the better ones by ESP.

Generally with E, Ep & P the SC is very important, leaders there will force others to keep up and they won't run their 3rd FR. With SP,S & L types HE is important.

In this ex. Tot Energy & TS is very clear for the E types but not so much for the S types. The 2 & 3 are very close on Tot. Energy and TS but how they run are quite different. The 2 puts together two good Fr as compared to the 3, # 2 has better HE etc. How they run fast is very important. A lower Tot. Energy horse that runs more efficiently and decelerates little can out finish horses with higher Tot. En.

Bottom line is when you sort by % MED ESP you can get a clearer picture of the Match UP and separate horses. Their weakness's are more exposed in the factors on the screen. Who will force others not to run their 3rd FR? I analyze the Velocity screen always and many times can predict what the BLBL and even the V/DC screen will say. Work with it, you'll be glad you did. It also gives you a feel for how close these horses are or how much one may dominate.

Ted thanks ever so much for your updating in the program for my suggestion to sort by % Med, definitely a visual game changer.

Mitch44




Grouping horses by ESP gives a clearer picture of the Match Up.

[Ted Craven]

My pleasure Mitch! Any Analysis screen where the mouse pointer changes to the 'hand' icon when pointing to a factor header (per the image examples) means you can sort by that column. It's most of the screens and most of the data points by now, though I'm open to any remaining items I didn't think were important.


Ted