Hawthorne 02-18-2012

[Bob Cochran]

TOP 5 Apv-Class
TOP 5 contenders or less
Races 1 thru 9

median energy profile = 68.35 === 8.318 fur. winners
Race 1. contenders = 4-2-6-7-3 Top 5 Apv-Class = 1-6-7-5-(2-4)

median energy profile = 70.65 === 5 fur. mdn.
Race 2. contenders = 6-7-5-8-2 Top 5 Apv-Class = 6-7-5-2

median energy profile = 69.35 === 5.5 fur. winners
Race 3. contenders = 4-5-6-7-8 Top 5 Apv-Class = 6-2-8-4-3

median energy profile = 69.70 ====5.5 fur. Mdn.
Race 4. contenders = 3-9-10-11-13 Top Apv-Class = 13-11

median energy profile = 69.70 === 5.5 fur. Mdn.
Race 5. contenders = 3-1-6-8 Top Apv-Class =3-8-6-5-1

median energy profile = 68.35 === 8.5 fur winners
Race 6. contenders = 3-8-9-12-13 Top Apv-Class = 3-5-11-7-12

median energy profile = 68.80=== 6 fur. winners
Race 7. contenders = 2-4-5-8-9 Top Apv-Class = 1-8-4-2-3

median energy profile = 68.80 === 6 fur. winners
Race 8. contenders = 9-1-3-8-2 Top Apv-Class = 4-1a-3-7-2

median energy profile = 68.80 === 6 fur. winners
Race 9. contenders = 4-6-3-10-11 Top Apv-Class = 11-9-10-3-5

see you at the cashier's window ,
good luck!

BobC

[mikesal57]

Good Luck Bob...
you know your going to have to explain how you get your contenders if they win....

Mike

[Bob Cochran]

Hello Mike

Not much explaining to do here. It was a day full of chalk and passed races.

The exactas were nothing to brag about. Most of the races were unbalanced,
hence few horses fit the distance models presented. I lost a few bucks and socialized a lot. The buffet was good, and all left with stomachs full and wallets
slimmer

Speaking of contender selection, i basically use the top 5 APV & Class plus ties.

BobC

[mikesal57]

AHHHH....BUFFET.....my favorite word

APV is self explanatory...

How do you arrive at your contenders?

Mike

[Bob Cochran]

Hello Mike . My first intention when handicapping a race is to eliminate horses
i feel, have no chance to Win. Lay-Off and rested horses.

I start with the Lay-Off horses. 30 days or more away from racing. In order to qualify as a lay-off contender, the horse must show a win, or 2nd place finish after a lay-off period anywhere in it's PPs. It may qualify if it won at first asking as a Mdn. The 2nd place finish must be less than 2 lengths.

If it has the win or 2nd place finish after a lay-off, it must then show a useable pace line within the last 180 days. Once i rid the race of obvious non-contenders for Win, it's time to check the remaining horses using the Match Up, or using the best line from the last 5 pp's in RDSS, or Val4 etc.

I try to avoid making rules, I'd rather allow for exceptions.

ps, use these guidelines on races 6,7,8, and 9 on the Hawthorne Saturday non-maiden races, and let me know if you feel they assist in saving time handicapping the races.

BobC

[Bob Cochran]

Race 8 at Hawthorne Sunday 02-19-2012

median energy profile for the race is 68.80 %

#1a non-win contender --- In for exotic line3
#1 win contender due to in the money 14 times out of 17 races. IN line1
#2 non-win contender ok after lay-off, but no pace line. In for exotic line 1
#3 non-contender due to no good races after a lay-off. ---OUT
#4 non-win contender .shows good race after lay-off ---In for exotic line 1
#5 non-win contender. no pace line ----- IN for exotic line 3
#6 win contender . good race after lay-off --- IN line 1
#7 non-contender. no qualified race after lay-off----OUT
#8 non-contender. no qualified race after lay-off ---OUT
#9 win contender. qualifies after a lay-off --- IN line1

#1 median energy = 68.90 %
# 6 median energy = 69.00 %
# 9 median energy = 68.10 %

My breakdown of the race

Bob C

[mikesal57]

good going on the winner #9

questions:

How do you consider a horse a "win-contender" ?

check horse 7...he won last race but you say "out"

[Bob Cochran]

Hello Mike.
The #7 horse won it's last race which equates to $5000 claimers. It's record is
sparse and shows no qualified race after a lay-off.

BobC

[For The Lead]

It would be nice if one of you posted the PP's for this race so ALL can see what you are talking about.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Bob Cochran

TOP 5 Apv-Class
TOP 5 contenders or less
Races 6 thru 9


median energy profile = 68.35 === 8.5 fur winners
Race 6. contenders = 3-8-9-12-13 Top Apv-Class = 3-5-11-7-12

median energy profile = 68.80=== 6 fur. winners
Race 7. contenders = 2-4-5-8-9 Top Apv-Class = 1-8-4-2-3

median energy profile = 68.80 === 6 fur. winners
Race 8. contenders = 9-1-3-8-2 Top Apv-Class = 4-1a-3-7-2

median energy profile = 68.80 === 6 fur. winners
Race 9. contenders = 4-6-3-10-11 Top Apv-Class = 11-9-10-3-5

BobC

and

"I start with the Lay-Off horses. 30 days or more away from racing. In order to qualify as a lay-off contender, the horse must show a win, or 2nd place finish after a lay-off period anywhere in it's PPs. It may qualify if it won at first asking as a Mdn. The 2nd place finish must be less than 2 lengths.

If it has the win or 2nd place finish after a lay-off, it must then show a useable pace line within the last 180 days. Once i rid the race of obvious non-contenders for Win, it's time to check the remaining horses using the Match Up, or using the best line from the last 5 pp's in RDSS, or Val4 etc.

I try to avoid making rules, I'd rather allow for exceptions."

Bob, I understood your qualifications for layoff or rested horses, but based on the guidelines you set for races 6 through 9 on Hawthorne's saturday card I question how you made these horses contenders, all of whom were layoff horses, but which did not appear to meet what I interpreted as Very Strict qualifications.

In race 6: horses 8 and 12 first two screen shots
In race 7: horses 5, 8 and 9, 3rd -5th screen shots
In race 8: horse 3,
In race 9: horses 3 and 6