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Old 10-27-2013, 06:37 PM   #1
Segwin
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Looking for some help

I played a Trifecta today for the 9th at PRX. I bet 6, 7 & 9 boxed.

I will show these picks now.
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Old 10-27-2013, 06:55 PM   #2
Segwin
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They ran 8, 6 & 9.

I spent a lot of time going over this race. I must say that I wasn't impressed with this card, on the whole, as a good value interest but I thought I'd at least play the last race.

The fly in the ointment was the 8 horse. I cant see anything redeeming in this horse for today's competition.

I'm looking for some help as to why this horse won. As I set the pace of the race this horse didn't have the stats to be in ITM. I'm inclined to believe that stuff happens but perhaps I'm missing something.


Thanks for the help.
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Old 10-27-2013, 07:01 PM   #3
Segwin
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The wager....
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Old 10-27-2013, 07:57 PM   #4
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Class.
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Old 10-27-2013, 10:58 PM   #5
Bill V.
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Hi Terry

Did you bet and win any other race on today's Parx card?

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Old 10-28-2013, 07:23 AM   #6
Segwin
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Hi Bill:

No I didn't bet on any other race. I typically don't play on Sunday as it is usually a pretty busy day however I had a few extra minutes. Had I bet just to win on this race I would have chosen the 9th horse. The reason I chose a Trifecta is it looked like such a good lock.

Appy, not sure what you mean by class. The horse looks like it belongs in class of race, CL 7500, but really hadn't shown much in the past three races.
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Old 10-28-2013, 11:06 AM   #7
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Perhaps insignificant, Segs, but I noticed the 8 had run second at $30K, which I believe is a higher level than the other 3.
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Old 10-28-2013, 11:36 AM   #8
Ted Craven
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Terry,

My view - in one single race, you can make ALL the right decisions, and consistent with every best practice you know or have heard of, and have a losing wager. This is NORMAL, even to be embraced - especially if your longer term accumulation of records for your analysis and wager methods shows you hit sufficiently at net odds you hold out for. At one end of the review: an opportunity to remind yourself that this is true. One race is neither here nor there.

That said - understandably, you want to review your decisions to see if something can be learned. Each of us will have to review a race like this in context of our own practice: what kind of races we bet, how we bet (which pools, single/multi-win bets, our chosen analysis methods - even in the over all umbrella of Sartin Methodology, what settings in RDSS you use, etc).

In the context of my practice (bets: win, WP, occasionally WPS, Exacta pools; PSS: Best of Last 3 comparable; contenders: must have a 'good' or 'good/bad' last race or else an excuse; eliminate to Top 5 Primary LS/Total Energy; assess Early/OTE bias; keep an eye on the tote-board) - I would observe the following, both from your screen shot of the Winner #8 and from the BL/BL screenshot below:

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#8 was a contender off last race: ran in front through 6 of 8f and within ~ 1 length through top of stretch. The horse can run either Early (in 2 routes) or off the pace and is thus comfortable with either a few or several other horses in front of him early (especially June 2). This would serve him well today with up to 3 other horses who might go for the lead. It returns in 12 days.

Out of the box, the default PSS: BLT/C Perceptor gives the lines chosen above (I manually made the #2 and #4 non win contenders and the #5 ITM due to lowest Total Energy/Primary LS). The line #2 chosen for the #8 horse was from 5f, Adj SR of 82 which it has shown it can duplicate well in its June races, so not aberrant. It gained position and lengths.

If one were pursuing a multi-horse 'wagercapping' approach, and adhered to a minimum of 5/2 for one horse of a 2 horse 'synthetic entry', you might have chosen the #7 and then the best odds of the top 3 BL (and top 2 and ties VDC) = the #8 for a net range of odds of 1.25-1 ... 3-1 (final odds, not sure what they were a bet-time).

All day long at Woodbine yesterday (while enjoying very fine company, watching great Stakes racing and losing only a little money ) - we observed the rank 1 0.0 Tote Xray (TX) pointing to non-favourite though top 4 ranked Win pool odds, winners (someone or some collective of the public had a 'good opinion'). And so the #8 winner in your race was also favoured in this same way. Perhaps anecdotal, but I'd suggest always to check when a non-favourite top 4 odds horse is indicated thus by TX - use it as a supplementary confirmation of an other than stellar looking horse.

I only grabbed the above screen after the race was long over and did not bet it. I also 'explained' myself off of several horses yesterday which the program saw fit to elevate to Top 3 - so it happens. Part of a (my) growing discipline is to be more clear when to accept the rigorous analysis of an automated program and when to override it (e.g. because the program does not yet know how to make all of the same decisions I do - even though it does execute what it does know how to do with slavishly consistency).

You - and others - may differ with this analysis, perhaps because it is not consistent with your regular collection of methods. And that is how it should be. But if it were me, I'd want to at least have been aware of all of the foregoing observations, and then to make my own decisions. And there are likely decisions, for example, about who of the strict Earlies woulds survive (the 6??) - which others can answer better than I can in this race.

Not a prescription of 'how you could have gotten the race' - only: some things to have looked for and an approach you could examine further.

Good luck with the next 20 races !

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 10-28-2013 at 11:39 AM.
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Old 10-28-2013, 12:01 PM   #9
polambi
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Top vdc horse

Hey Terry, I understand your pain, but #8 does not look so bad in the VDC ranking.
I learned the hard way, that any time a horse shows it can take the lead in the first call, that horse should be considered as dangerous. #8 did take the lead in its last race.
Sign for "redemption" ? its energy level is back where it belongs.
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Old 10-28-2013, 12:08 PM   #10
Segwin
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Appy: I noted that the 8 had run at higher class in the past (with some success) but had continued to drop.

Ted: Thanks very much for the details - it truly helps. I've got a ways to go on the learning ladder as it were. It really helps to have experienced folks like you, B.V. and FTL looking over your shoulder.

edit: You must have posted just before me Paul. Thanks for the thoughts as well.
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Last edited by Segwin; 10-28-2013 at 12:12 PM.
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