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Old 04-01-2006, 11:08 AM   #11
noddub62
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Question

Richie,

Right now I'm just using the last 2 but ocassionally will look at last and 3rd back if there is something like a 4.5f or 5f race in between. I perfer the last 2 but --- duh --- don't know why!
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Old 04-01-2006, 12:23 PM   #12
RichieP
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noddub62
Richie,

Right now I'm just using the last 2 but ocassionally will look at last and 3rd back if there is something like a 4.5f or 5f race in between. I perfer the last 2 but --- duh --- don't know why!
ok ok Instinct right? Beautiful thing Budman

I will let u know what I see

Thank you
Richie
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Old 04-01-2006, 02:54 PM   #13
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after using this angle hundreds and hundreds of times, you really need to see the shift over three races to be significant.

Generally there are three reasons this happens. FIRST, a youngster is going into LONGER races and cannot cope. "Once I held that this was going off form, but maybe it is also a sign of developing three year olds NOT being able to take the next step up distance. Think of it: an animal is starting to go beyond his best distance capacity (can't apportion energy that is NOT THERE), runs for awhile and then dramatically slows down becoming EARLIER as the
distance capabilities are OVERWHELMED. An animal that can go these LONGER distances is going to tell you by it's performance numbers that it can make that next step."

SECOND it is meeting a PROGRESSIVELY faster pace and just cannot keep up. MOST of the false positives are in this group.

Thirdly, the horse is going off form and it is telling you that it cannot extend itself into the race and gives up earlier and earlier.
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Last edited by tompkins; 04-01-2006 at 03:01 PM.
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Old 04-01-2006, 03:05 PM   #14
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Fwi

Here is the winner of the demo paceline screenshots
Looks like a -+ and 2nd of layoff

GS
Bill
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Old 04-01-2006, 03:32 PM   #15
noddub62
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Question Question

In comparing the TE and %M for the the last 2 or 3 races, are you comparing apples to apples when the last 2 or 3 are not of the same distance?

Bud
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Old 04-01-2006, 07:58 PM   #16
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the races need to be CLOSE to the same distance AND have to be all recent or otherwise the entire idea of going off form is negated since the whole idea is a steady regression.
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Last edited by tompkins; 04-01-2006 at 08:01 PM.
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Old 04-01-2006, 09:53 PM   #17
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Agreed as to recent.

Bud
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