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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 04-26-2018, 08:13 PM   #1
Lefty
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Gulfsteam 4-26-6th race

If anybody did 6th at Gp today would love to see your readouts and what pacelines you used.
Thanks.
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:16 PM   #2
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Gp race 7 4-26- not 6th race.

I screwed up. Meant race 7. GP 4-26
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Old 04-27-2018, 12:29 PM   #3
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line 1 on the and line 2 on the
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Old 04-27-2018, 06:19 PM   #4
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Contender analysis (steps, in order):

demote from Primary (Win): #4 and #2 for being off too long (e.g. > ~90 days)
demote #5 and #2 (again) for no Turf
demote #3 as worst of Top 4 Rx, fewest ranks 1 and 2

#7 is getting a little long in the tooth for Claiming N2L conditions, but has a good excuse last race and is a specialist at the distance, surface and track. 6.60 -1 odds, ProfitLine and Morning Line Rank=2 retains my interest.

I tried lines 1 and 2 for the #6 winner: technically line 2 is from a good race but either line keeps it level 3 on Rx line (and tier 1 or 2 on BL).

#6 has to be one of the Win bets for all its rank 1s, and 6.60 - 1 odds
Also can bet Top Rx (and 2nd BL and VDC) horse and co-favourite #1.
Or, bet all 3 to Win (hedge the #6 to breakeven)

Exacta: 1-7-6 / 1-7-6-4

Tote info was unavailable.

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Old 04-27-2018, 07:41 PM   #5
Bill V.
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Gp 6

GP race 6 4/26


PHASE 1

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RX3

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Old 04-27-2018, 08:11 PM   #6
Lefty
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Thanks to 3 great guys

Thank you all 3 of you great guys.
I missed this race and I don't think I should have.
My best to you.
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Old 04-27-2018, 10:15 PM   #7
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I pretty much concur with your contenders and pace lines. But I did use 9 off his last line cause I thought it looked pretty good. May I ask why you made 9 a secondary contender? It would help me greatly.
You guys are so very helpful.
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Old 04-28-2018, 05:55 PM   #8
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Lines

Hi Lefty

I used the phase 1 contender guidelines .
The # 9 horse is not one of the top 3 EPR or LPR horses
It is also not within 5 points of the top rated TPR horse .

I used the last line for horse 9 .
This still young 3 year old seems to always run the same race
Early lead then dies , Today starts a new form cycle. After a 4 day layoff,
He has not done anything after his other layoffs .
The conditions for the last line on March 16th was restricted for 3 year olds only.
In today's race, older horses can run as long as the don't have 2 wins.
Little Plum rated 2nd on RX3 in that March 16th race but ran out of the money.

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Old 04-28-2018, 07:07 PM   #9
Lefty
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Bill, thanks for taking the time to explain it to me. I did TPR by hand and I probably made a mistake in figuring FFR.
Many many thanks.








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Old 04-28-2018, 07:08 PM   #10
Lefty
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Bill, thanks for taking the time to explain it to me. I did TPR by hand and I probably made a mistake in figuring FFR.
Many many thanks.








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