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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 11-19-2014, 12:35 PM   #1
PeteC
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Join Date: Dec 2007
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11/21/14 wo r#2

Here is a race Friday at Woodbine for matchers to take a look at...
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Old 11-21-2014, 09:48 AM   #2
chuckg
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WO 2 Nov 21

Three Earlies 4 5 and 8

Fast Early is 5

Name:  WO 2 Nov 21 Early.JPG
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Will have to run 22.6 45.7 to get lead today.
5 can finish at 1:10.8 while setting that pace.

Throw out 4
Move 8 to OTE

All OTE have run against this pace or faster.

Eliminate 6 moving up to protect claim.

Name:  WO 2 Nov 21 OTE.JPG
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Looks like 2 and 3 have run the best race against this pace.
At the highest MLs of the bunch, let's do 2 horse W/P on 2 and 3.
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Old 11-21-2014, 11:04 AM   #3
raceman5
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woodbine

I will take the 1 horse has beat alot of these horses in Tandem races and also will take the 6 who has run against the 1.

Bob
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Old 11-21-2014, 11:05 AM   #4
Capcondo
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Thanks for posting the race Pete.

I look at the 4, 5, and the 8 as being early. They are not fighters. I am going to use the second race back for the 4 as the pace (tandem race); 22.3 45.3 57.3 1:10.0. However, I'll make the 1st quarter 22.2 so the pace is 22.2 45.3 57.3 1:10.0. Since these three figure to lock up, I'm looking for OTE. The rest:

1: 2nd in tandem; contender.
2: Slow. Out
3: Trouble in tandem. FPLR. Slow. Late. Out.
4: E Out.
5: E Out
6: Last two very impressive. Power move from 4th and 5th position. Contender.
7: Hasn't shown much. Out.
8: Early. Out.

I'm left with the 1 and 6. The 1 scares me a bit but I think will be too far back. I liked the 6 from the beginning. The 6 is my choice to win the race.

Tim
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Old 11-21-2014, 12:11 PM   #5
vderdak
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I see the 2,4,5, and 8 early, the others OTE so it's going to go that way since I don't see any dominant early in the fractions. Of the OTE's I see the 6 closing from 5 or so back to win.
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Old 11-21-2014, 12:55 PM   #6
The Pook
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Good race Pete,

I see the Earlies as 2,4,5,8 and OTE's as 1,6,3,7

The Earlies because of a very contentious first fraction will be compromised. They all need to win from first or second position at the first call and I don't see a dominant one.

So I will go OTE. 3 and 7 have form issues. Leaves 1 and 6 which as I show below both can win from far enough off pace to accommodate the Early positions. They also know how to pass horses and showed enough in their last race. Also the 6 has run his wins at faster pace than todays projected.

Conclusion: (1,6). .......hopefully both will be at least 5-2

Pook
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Old 11-21-2014, 01:04 PM   #7
mowens33
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Like the 1 and 7
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Old 11-21-2014, 01:08 PM   #8
Bill Lyster
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E's are 2-4-5-8, the 4 wants lead every time, but gives up. The 2 is 2/32 so on that basis I say no repeat of line 2. If he repeats that line it only further compromises the early horses.

8 is lightly races, always a good thing in a nw2l race, has shown it does not need the lead to win, but is ultimately consumed by the pace duel.

I think pace is something like 22.2-45.2 - 58.0 (in fifths)

1 needs slower fractions to win; 3 runs from way back, unless you somehow can get back to line 4. More likely a place or show candidate at a price.

7 is racing at lowest ever level; won in June as open c 32 type, claimed out of an OC20 race, will probably race near the back, no recent big time moves at or about this pace. STILL THIS IS A BIG CLASS DROP.

the 6 has won vs 45.0 splits in its last two!; won vs 57.4 and 57.2 and runs from the right spot for todays race. My top pick even though its going up in class.
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Old 11-21-2014, 01:33 PM   #9
The Pook
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The 4 sets the pace and stays there. Fooled us all. This game keeps you humble...
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Old 11-21-2014, 01:40 PM   #10
mowens33
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Class speed holding on!!
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