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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 01-28-2015, 01:36 PM   #1
The Pook
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Talking A Match made in Heaven

I'll post and share this now while I have a moment. Sometimes if you can overlook something that everybody else is cautious of, you can make a good score.
Today in Gulfstream's 2nd I ended up with 3 contenders (1,6,3) as seen below. They were all kind of close at the 1st call time. However only the 6 had faced successfuly a 44. BUT! He's been away over a year. If you could look past that there was money to be made.
The 3 went to the front as anticipated but the 6 stuck to him. And then in the stretch with his 2nd call superior experience he drew away. These are the ones that put food on the table man!
I know this is after it has run but rarely do I know what I'm doing more than a few minutes before post. Just want to show again its all about the matchup...

Pook
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Old 01-28-2015, 02:08 PM   #2
mowens33
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Pook, that’s digging deep! Not sure I would have pulled the trigger on that one? But that’s what the matchup can do!!
I’m love- in it!!!
Nice Score!!!!
Mike
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Old 01-28-2015, 02:24 PM   #3
The Pook
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You're right Mike. The matchup itself puts you on that horse. Good sense traditional handicapping says stay away. Hence $40!

Pook
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Old 01-28-2015, 02:46 PM   #4
Capcondo
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Great hit Pook! When I looked at the line you used, I saw he was a fighter at the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd call. I thought he might also be able to run from off the lead like many fighters are able to do. Looking at the 5th line back, he is confirmed OTE. Another OTE winner paying a huge mutual on the turf.

Terrific hit!

Tim
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Old 01-28-2015, 03:10 PM   #5
The Pook
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Yeah Tim just like you mentioned earlier. This guy looks like he can fight and OTE. Danger! Danger!

Pook
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Old 01-28-2015, 04:34 PM   #6
Bill Lyster
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Another good thing about the winner is that in four previous layoffs, one of 80 or more days, this horse came back to run each time. The time out after the maiden win looks to have been some kind of injury, so they apparently know the horse is willing to work hard when its time to race.

I know that layoff horses only win less than 5% of their comeback races, but one thing that has helped me in this situation is to look at ALL of their races and to find their fastest ever race. IF the horse comes off layoffs well and IF its best time is better than most in the field, I will include the horse as a contender. Here we can also see a 56.0 in addition to the line 4 time of 56.3.

Pook, how does the winners best time compare to the best times of the others in this race? I would place a silent bet that its in the top three if not top 2!!

Bill
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Old 01-28-2015, 07:24 PM   #7
The Pook
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Bill, I assume you are talking final 5f time as you were referencing there. Below are the top times (competitively ran against ) at the distance on the turf. Only these contenders have them of which 6 is quickest.

So you are right. The 6 is up there when looking at it that way. Although I never made it to or considered final time. 1st and 2nd call were enough for me.

Pook
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Old 01-28-2015, 08:27 PM   #8
Bill Lyster
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Pook, the reason that I mentioned best time at the distance, adjusted for today's race distance, is that after the last Del Mar getogether in 2013 I spent several meetings with one of the local attendees, Bud Jones, who is a very successful matcher. Bud usually matched only older claiming horses and never turf races, but found enough to do quite well.

In brief, his method was to make qualifying decisions on all of the race participants using the Brohamer Contender Guidelines. If a horse was a qualifier you can use the fastest adjusted time for each horse wherein it was a qualifier, and their best power line for final matching. You still looked for the fastest early and determined how many earlies there would be and then determined that the race was going to be Early or OTE and then handicap accordingly.

It is really instructive to find the fastest ever time of the qualifiers. Even if it was a long time ago, it shows the max potential of horses, so when you see horses whose recent form looks too close to separate it is an important factor in my analysis.
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Old 01-28-2015, 11:25 PM   #9
PeteC
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Way to go Pook!

....fighters....ignoring class, recency, etc....looking at power lines deep in the pp's....straight out matching...right out of Richie and Jim's teachings. Way to see it and react to it right away.

You are in the zone Pook!
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Old 01-29-2015, 09:26 AM   #10
The Pook
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Pook, the reason that I mentioned best time at the distance, adjusted for today's race distance, is that after the last Del Mar getogether in 2013 I spent several meetings with one of the local attendees, Bud Jones, who is a very successful matcher. Bud usually matched only older claiming horses and never turf races, but found enough to do quite well.

In brief, his method was to make qualifying decisions on all of the race participants using the Brohamer Contender Guidelines. If a horse was a qualifier you can use the fastest adjusted time for each horse wherein it was a qualifier, and their best power line for final matching. You still looked for the fastest early and determined how many earlies there would be and then determined that the race was going to be Early or OTE and then handicap accordingly.

It is really instructive to find the fastest ever time of the qualifiers. Even if it was a long time ago, it shows the max potential of horses, so when you see horses whose recent form looks too close to separate it is an important factor in my analysis.
Makes total sense Bill. Something to keep in mind when making final decisions.

On this discussion board when doing these races it is interesting to note how many varying opinions there can be when basically we are all just matching. But that is good and I really like to see other thought processes laid out. We all get our own set of winners. It comes down to the little nuances of decision making based on our own set of experiences. But applied through the matching framework in our own particular way.

Yesterday I just thought I would share 2 experiences that worked out well. If they hadn't I wouldn't have posted them. I went 5 for 9 with a ROI of 250%. Obviously doesn't happen every day. Monday I was 3 for 7 with low-ass returns for a loss of 50% on the day. The trick is keeping the winning days big and the losing days low.

You try like Pete says to be in the zone. Whatever that takes.

Pook
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