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05-29-2016, 05:06 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
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Today at Belmont
8th race is what I like to call a chaos race. IMO, every horse in the race has a chance to win it. There are no horses that really jump out at me.
In a race like this, I figure I will go early, and take the 3, 4, and 6 and see what happens. If anyone has a better way to handicap a race like this, where it could go early or it could go late, please let me know, I would love to learn to handicap these types of races better. Here are my readouts : |
05-29-2016, 05:21 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
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Here are the results :
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05-30-2016, 09:41 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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horse 2
Hi Dan
Without getting too deep into this yet, I apologize, I am kind of limited because I currently only have my Dos Validator with me, I hope to have RDSS up and running soon, First look at the conditions of the race, I see just from your screen shot, I see the with the 2 you used a graded stakes paceline, This line seems like the best class race from your contenders. You used line 2 I see the 198 for days since last race, But the paceline you used is from a race 414 days ago at Keeneland , I am not sure because Dos Val4 does not identify poly tracks Was Keeneland a poly track 414 days ago ? So a very basic answer based on what I see here, Is the 2 the same horse it was 414 days ago, from a higher class race and perhaps a different surface than "Big Sandy" This is just my quick first look, but I did notice these things about the winner #2 just from your lines and contender Hope other will help you out Good Skill Bill |
05-30-2016, 12:53 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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horse 2
Horse 2
Is this line comparable, Is this the same horse it was 414 days ago ? You also used a trouble trip race Code:
BEL0529 8 8.5 D OC 3+ $80,000 CP=$62,500 5:13PM 2/7 JOCK/TRAIN R W P S W% R W P S EARNINGS W% EPS R VELAZQUEZ, JOH 98 16 9 16 16 LIFE 5 2 0 0 61,340 40 12,268 5 PLETCHER, TODD 97 20 12 15 21 CURR PAST 4 2 0 0 59,120 50 14,780 3 ML= 3/1 D-RT 2 1 0 0 35,900 50 17,950 3 2 COMFORT AGE=4 OFF-D COMMENT: EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR ESP L PI 1 198GPW 9FT 6.0Dp 46.8 111.1 143.0 1.70 1.70 1.10 0.00 84 1 2[ 414KEE10FT 8.5D 47.4 111.9 142.0 5.10 2.60 5.00 4.80 84 2 ] 3 472FG 5FT 8.3D 47.3 112.5 143.3 1.50 1.60 0.20 0.00 82 3 4 505FG 6FM 8.5T 49.1 113.4 145.0 3.00 1.60 3.40 1.30 73 4 5 526FG 10GD 8.0T 49.1 114.7 145.0 5.70 4.20 4.60 3.10 71 5 DETAILS L TYPE PU/CP JOCKEY PP FN FD ODDSF COMMENT 1 OC-3+NW1 16,000 ZAYAS, EDGARD 5 1 7 1.80* ROUSED4WD,DREW CLEAR 2[G3-3 250,000 CASTELLANO, JA 2 4 7 5.80 BMPD, BOTHERED START 3 MS-3 39,000 RIQUELME, JOSE 3 1 8 7.50 RAIL TRIP,STRONG DRIVE 4 MS-3 37,000 REZNIKOV, ALEX 1 4 12 5.50 INSIDE TURNS,WAIT 3/16 5 MS-2 37,000 REZNIKOV, ALEX 5 4 9 41.30 OFF BIT SLOW,3W,6W1/4 WORK OUTS 4D(FT)MTH: 49.0B 5D(FT)PBD:101.4B 5D(FT)PBD:101.8B 5D(FT)PBD:103.0B 5D(FT)PBD:101.3B 4D(FT)PBD: 49.2B 4D(FT)PBD: 49.0B 3D(FT)PBD: 38.6B FREQUENCY WORK OUTS 7 14 21 28 34 40 47 54 61 204 216 223 RACES 198 414 472 505 526 INSTRUCTIONS You have the winner ranked 4th but I see the 6 as a question mark Horse 6 You used line 1 I have no line uless I go to line 4 Line 1 is an off track and has over 7.5 beaten lengths. Line 2 is a muddy off track Line 3 has 9 beaten lengths Line 4 is the line right at doc's cut off of 189 days but its also the horses all timme best speed rating by 1 point I will use cauation Code:
(c) 189 /REYNOLDS $40,000 PAST 9 2 0 1 76,014 22 8,446 5 ML= 4/1 D-RT 7 1 1 4 79,597 14 11,371 7 6 MILLS AGE=6 OFF-D 2 0 1 0 COMMENT: EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR ESP L PI 1 25BEL 5SY 8.5D 46.2 110.3 141.2 5.70 4.00 6.00 8.00 85 1 2 57AQU 7MY 8.0D 46.9 110.9 142.3 4.00 4.00 4.00 2.30 85 2 3 99AQU 8FT 8.5d 47.3 110.8 140.0 0.00 0.60 4.00 9.80 89 3 4[ 148AQU 7FT 8.5d 47.1 110.7 141.5 3.50 6.60 5.50 1.50 90 4 ] 5 189AQU 1FT 8.0D 48.2 112.9 142.8 2.70 1.00 0.00 0.00 85 5 6 225BEL 6FM 8.5t 50.1 113.3 142.6 5.10 3.50 2.00 1.00 85 6 7 247BEL 8FM 8.5t 51.3 114.6 143.7 2.70 4.10 3.10 2.00 78 7 8 277SAR 7FM 8.0t 48.3 113.1 143.9 9.10 6.00 4.10 3.80 76 8 9 287MTH 7FM 8.5T 49.5 112.8 142.5 9.50 5.70 4.70 4.80 82 9 A 303SAR 6GD11.0t 48.9 115.1 145.2 10.00 8.50 5.10 5.50 68 A DETAILS L TYPE PU/CP JOCKEY PP FN FD ODDSF COMMENT 1 OC-3+NW2 62,500 CARMOUCHE, KEN 4 3 6 9.20 LUNGE BRK,2P,3W INTO 2 SS-4+ 75,000 CARMOUCHE, KEN 5 2 5 5.80 OVERLAND, GOOD COURAGE 3 SA-4+C 25,000 DECARLO, CHRIS 5 3 7 2.30* DRFT 2P 1/2,SPUTTER 5W 4[OC-4+NW2 62,500 DECARLO, CHRIS 1 3 10 3.30 3-4W UPPER, MILD KICK ] 5 CL-3+ 40,000 SAEZ, LUIS 4 1 6 2.40 5W ADVANCE, EDGED CLR 6 CL-3+ 40,000 FRANCO, MANUEL 4 3 8 9.20 6-7W UPPER, WILLINGLY 7 CL-3+ 32,000 ALVARADO, JUNI 6 4 7 2.00* 5W UPPER, OUTKICKED 8 CL-3+ 25,000 ROSARIO, JOEL 2 6 8 3.80 2-3W 1/4, NO RESPONSE 9 OC-3+NW2 30,000 BRAVO, JOE 4 5 8 2.30 4 WIDE INTO LANE A OC-3+NW2 62,500 VELASQUEZ, COR 5 7 9 26.00 QUICK TUCK INS, OUTRUN WORK OUTS 4D(FT)BEL: 48.1B 4F(FT)BEL: 49.2B 4F(FT)BEL: 49.5B 4F(FT)BEL: 47.8B 4F(FT)BEL: 48.7B 4F(FT)BEL: 49.2B 4F(GD)BEL: 48.5B 4F(FT)BEL: 48.8B FREQUENCY WORK OUTS 5 30 41 63 69 83 112 122 152 160 174 193 RACES 25 57 99 148 189 225 247 277 287 303 325 358 INSTRUCTIONS F1=Adjusted Pace Lines/Details F2=Adjusted & Original Pace Lines F6=Paceline Indicator F9=Comments P=Print ?=Back 1 Horse ?=Next Horse Esc=Calculate Press # to Select/UnSelect Line Last edited by Bill V.; 05-31-2016 at 11:15 AM. Reason: added RDSS screens |
05-30-2016, 01:20 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
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Thank you Bill, it seems like it might be my paceline selection in races like this from what you are saying. I will certainly look at that.
Dan |
05-30-2016, 01:56 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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after the race conjecture
I will throw some coals into the fire....
My opinion is after the fact; so it should be taken as mere conjecture...As how one applies oneself "under duress and live race conditions" differs greatly when one has no marbles at stakes on a Monday morning "quarterback status" At my first glance and without looking at the "energy panel", it looks like that contenders #1 Backside and #5 Our Ca will be deficient in the parameters of "percent median" when compare to the top early pace of today's matchup. I'm guessing that #3 Heredi and #4 Farhaa will be the top two E/ep horses in this matchup. This is important because the early pace of these early runners will cause a "fast-up" on #1 and #5. I am not 100% sure that this "fast-Up" outcome will happen; but we have the "percent median" numbers to evaluate this possible outcome. Races on dirt demand that horses must have faced a certain early pace parameters; otherwise they will falter against "faster early pace" match-up that they haven't encounter before. I will guess that the early pace horses have %median at about 68.5% or so and that #1 Backside and #5 Our Ca have about 66.5% to 67.0%.... Personally, I would adjust the early pace of #1 and #5 two ticks faster and their final times two ticks slower to reflect today's match-up...(JMHO) This procedure is based on my own personal use of past Sartin programs and from reading the "match-up principles" of Jim Bradshaw and my own interpretations. It is not based on many data of thousands and thousands of races. |
05-30-2016, 09:45 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I agree with Bill on his observations of the #2 horse. He is definitely down in class. His workout pattern and trainer ability with layoffs would be a helpful clue.
Also I see you used some off track line that I would not have used unless that was all the horse had. Don't have their charts so can't really say but I believe your own diagnosis is correct of picking poor lines. See Bill V, TPR thread for pace line selections and know the Doc's guidelines. Now lets just say for analysis purpose's all your lines are correct. You can't assume that just because a race likes this confuses you that it will run early. Based on your pace lines I see this race running the opposite. The #3 & 7 are a toss for low velocity. The # 4 is strictly early speed with nothing else going for it, out. That leaves as contenders # 1,2, 5 & 6. The 6 is all TT and E and nothing later, he figure to fade and get beat. The # 2 is much better on the Sup. LS and FW etc. I figure this race to run late and my contenders are 5-1-2. The 5 gaps the others and is a definite of my top two Between the 1 & 2 I would look at some other things to make a final decision. One would be odds and other readouts such as gaps or diff. in V/DC plus there are others things I generally look at. Hope this helps. Mitch44 |
05-31-2016, 08:42 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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Keeneland switched back to dirt in 2015
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06-01-2016, 02:48 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
|
Yes, I should have probably played the class angle with the 2, he seems to have a definite edge there over the other horses. He did run evenly in the G3 which is a good sign.
What is the PF3 ranking? I see the 2 horse was in the top 3 in it. I threw out the 1 and 5 for being too slow early to catch up, which leaves the 2 horse as the best of PF3. I have noticed in other races that this PF3 can lead to some good paying horses, just curious how it is calculated/what it represents? |
06-04-2016, 06:54 AM | #10 |
cratman
Join Date: May 2006
Location: DC area
Posts: 82
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Grade 3 race
Also, I seem to recollect that the Grade 3 race included trouble for the 2.
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