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Old 05-29-2016, 05:06 PM   #1
DanBoals
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Today at Belmont

8th race is what I like to call a chaos race. IMO, every horse in the race has a chance to win it. There are no horses that really jump out at me.

In a race like this, I figure I will go early, and take the 3, 4, and 6 and see what happens.

If anyone has a better way to handicap a race like this, where it could go early or it could go late, please let me know, I would love to learn to handicap these types of races better.

Here are my readouts :
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Old 05-29-2016, 05:21 PM   #2
DanBoals
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Here are the results :
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Old 05-30-2016, 09:41 AM   #3
Bill V.
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horse 2

Hi Dan
Without getting too deep into this yet, I apologize, I am kind of limited because I currently only have my Dos Validator with me, I hope to have RDSS up and running soon, First look at the conditions of the race, I see
just from your screen shot, I see the with the 2 you used a graded stakes paceline,
This line seems like the best class race from your contenders. You used line 2
I see the 198 for days since last race, But the paceline you used is from a race 414 days ago at Keeneland , I am not sure because Dos Val4 does not identify poly tracks
Was Keeneland a poly track 414 days ago ? So a very basic answer based on what I see here, Is the 2 the same horse it was 414 days ago, from a higher class race and perhaps a different surface than "Big Sandy"
This is just my quick first look, but I did notice these things about the winner #2 just from your lines and contender

Hope other will help you out

Good Skill
Bill
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Old 05-30-2016, 12:53 PM   #4
Bill V.
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horse 2

Horse 2

Is this line comparable, Is this the same horse it was 414 days ago ?
You also used a trouble trip race

Code:
             BEL0529 8 8.5 D OC 3+  $80,000 CP=$62,500 5:13PM               2/7
JOCK/TRAIN       R   W   P   S   W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS   W%      EPS  R
VELAZQUEZ, JOH  98  16   9  16   16 LIFE   5  2  0  0    61,340   40   12,268  5
PLETCHER, TODD  97  20  12  15   21 CURR
                                    PAST   4  2  0  0    59,120   50   14,780  3
ML= 3/1                             D-RT   2  1  0  0    35,900   50   17,950  3
  2 COMFORT                  AGE=4  OFF-D
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  ESP     L PI
1  198GPW 9FT 6.0Dp 46.8 111.1 143.0  1.70  1.70  1.10  0.00  84          1
2[ 414KEE10FT 8.5D  47.4 111.9 142.0  5.10  2.60  5.00  4.80  84          2    ]
3  472FG  5FT 8.3D  47.3 112.5 143.3  1.50  1.60  0.20  0.00  82          3
4  505FG  6FM 8.5T  49.1 113.4 145.0  3.00  1.60  3.40  1.30  73          4
5  526FG 10GD 8.0T  49.1 114.7 145.0  5.70  4.20  4.60  3.10  71          5





                                    DETAILS
L TYPE           PU/CP JOCKEY         PP FN FD    ODDSF COMMENT
1 OC-3+NW1      16,000 ZAYAS, EDGARD   5  1  7    1.80* ROUSED4WD,DREW CLEAR
2[G3-3         250,000 CASTELLANO, JA  2  4  7    5.80  BMPD, BOTHERED START
3 MS-3          39,000 RIQUELME, JOSE  3  1  8    7.50  RAIL TRIP,STRONG DRIVE
4 MS-3          37,000 REZNIKOV, ALEX  1  4 12    5.50  INSIDE TURNS,WAIT 3/16
5 MS-2          37,000 REZNIKOV, ALEX  5  4  9   41.30  OFF BIT SLOW,3W,6W1/4





                                   WORK OUTS
 4D(FT)MTH: 49.0B  5D(FT)PBD:101.4B  5D(FT)PBD:101.8B  5D(FT)PBD:103.0B
 5D(FT)PBD:101.3B  4D(FT)PBD: 49.2B  4D(FT)PBD: 49.0B  3D(FT)PBD: 38.6B
                                   FREQUENCY
WORK OUTS    7   14   21   28   34   40   47   54   61  204  216  223
RACES      198  414  472  505  526
                                 INSTRUCTIONS
Horse 2 RDSS

Name:  RD2.PNG
Views: 370
Size:  61.0 KB

You have the winner ranked 4th but I see the 6 as a question mark

Horse 6 You used line 1 I have no line uless I go to line 4
Line 1 is an off track and has over 7.5 beaten lengths.
Line 2 is a muddy off track
Line 3 has 9 beaten lengths
Line 4 is the line right at doc's cut off of 189 days
but its also the horses all timme best speed rating by 1 point
I will use cauation


Code:
(c) 189 /REYNOLDS $40,000           PAST   9  2  0  1    76,014   22    8,446  5
ML= 4/1                             D-RT   7  1  1  4    79,597   14   11,371  7
  6 MILLS                    AGE=6  OFF-D  2  0  1  0
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  ESP     L PI
1   25BEL 5SY 8.5D  46.2 110.3 141.2  5.70  4.00  6.00  8.00  85          1
2   57AQU 7MY 8.0D  46.9 110.9 142.3  4.00  4.00  4.00  2.30  85          2
3   99AQU 8FT 8.5d  47.3 110.8 140.0  0.00  0.60  4.00  9.80  89          3
4[ 148AQU 7FT 8.5d  47.1 110.7 141.5  3.50  6.60  5.50  1.50  90          4    ]
5  189AQU 1FT 8.0D  48.2 112.9 142.8  2.70  1.00  0.00  0.00  85          5
6  225BEL 6FM 8.5t  50.1 113.3 142.6  5.10  3.50  2.00  1.00  85          6
7  247BEL 8FM 8.5t  51.3 114.6 143.7  2.70  4.10  3.10  2.00  78          7
8  277SAR 7FM 8.0t  48.3 113.1 143.9  9.10  6.00  4.10  3.80  76          8
9  287MTH 7FM 8.5T  49.5 112.8 142.5  9.50  5.70  4.70  4.80  82          9
A  303SAR 6GD11.0t  48.9 115.1 145.2 10.00  8.50  5.10  5.50  68          A
                                    DETAILS
L TYPE           PU/CP JOCKEY         PP FN FD    ODDSF COMMENT
1 OC-3+NW2      62,500 CARMOUCHE, KEN  4  3  6    9.20  LUNGE BRK,2P,3W INTO
2 SS-4+         75,000 CARMOUCHE, KEN  5  2  5    5.80  OVERLAND, GOOD COURAGE
3 SA-4+C        25,000 DECARLO, CHRIS  5  3  7    2.30* DRFT 2P 1/2,SPUTTER 5W
4[OC-4+NW2      62,500 DECARLO, CHRIS  1  3 10    3.30  3-4W UPPER, MILD KICK  ]
5 CL-3+         40,000 SAEZ, LUIS      4  1  6    2.40  5W ADVANCE, EDGED CLR
6 CL-3+         40,000 FRANCO, MANUEL  4  3  8    9.20  6-7W UPPER, WILLINGLY
7 CL-3+         32,000 ALVARADO, JUNI  6  4  7    2.00* 5W UPPER, OUTKICKED
8 CL-3+         25,000 ROSARIO, JOEL   2  6  8    3.80  2-3W 1/4, NO RESPONSE
9 OC-3+NW2      30,000 BRAVO, JOE      4  5  8    2.30  4 WIDE INTO LANE
A OC-3+NW2      62,500 VELASQUEZ, COR  5  7  9   26.00  QUICK TUCK INS, OUTRUN
                                   WORK OUTS
 4D(FT)BEL: 48.1B  4F(FT)BEL: 49.2B  4F(FT)BEL: 49.5B  4F(FT)BEL: 47.8B
 4F(FT)BEL: 48.7B  4F(FT)BEL: 49.2B  4F(GD)BEL: 48.5B  4F(FT)BEL: 48.8B
                                   FREQUENCY
WORK OUTS    5   30   41   63   69   83  112  122  152  160  174  193
RACES       25   57   99  148  189  225  247  277  287  303  325  358
                                 INSTRUCTIONS
 F1=Adjusted Pace Lines/Details               F2=Adjusted & Original Pace Lines
 F6=Paceline Indicator                        F9=Comments
     P=Print             ?=Back 1 Horse   ?=Next Horse            Esc=Calculate
                        Press # to Select/UnSelect Line
RDSS Horse 6

Name:  RD6.PNG
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Size:  88.6 KB

Last edited by Bill V.; 05-31-2016 at 11:15 AM. Reason: added RDSS screens
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Old 05-30-2016, 01:20 PM   #5
DanBoals
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Thank you Bill, it seems like it might be my paceline selection in races like this from what you are saying. I will certainly look at that.

Dan
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Old 05-30-2016, 01:56 PM   #6
lone speed
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after the race conjecture

I will throw some coals into the fire....

My opinion is after the fact; so it should be taken as mere conjecture...As how one applies oneself "under duress and live race conditions" differs greatly when one has no marbles at stakes on a Monday morning "quarterback status"

At my first glance and without looking at the "energy panel", it looks like that contenders #1 Backside and #5 Our Ca will be deficient in the parameters of "percent median" when compare to the top early pace of today's matchup. I'm guessing that #3 Heredi and #4 Farhaa will be the top two E/ep horses in this matchup. This is important because the early pace of these early runners will cause a "fast-up" on #1 and #5.

Name:  Snap 2016-05-30 at 10.25.39.png
Views: 438
Size:  490.8 KB

I am not 100% sure that this "fast-Up" outcome will happen; but we have the "percent median" numbers to evaluate this possible outcome. Races on dirt demand that horses must have faced a certain early pace parameters; otherwise they will falter against "faster early pace" match-up that they haven't encounter before.

I will guess that the early pace horses have %median at about 68.5% or so and that #1 Backside and #5 Our Ca have about 66.5% to 67.0%....

Personally, I would adjust the early pace of #1 and #5 two ticks faster and their final times two ticks slower to reflect today's match-up...(JMHO)

This procedure is based on my own personal use of past Sartin programs and from reading the "match-up principles" of Jim Bradshaw and my own interpretations. It is not based on many data of thousands and thousands of races.
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Old 05-30-2016, 09:45 PM   #7
Mitch44
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I agree with Bill on his observations of the #2 horse. He is definitely down in class. His workout pattern and trainer ability with layoffs would be a helpful clue.

Also I see you used some off track line that I would not have used unless that was all the horse had. Don't have their charts so can't really say but I believe your own diagnosis is correct of picking poor lines. See Bill V, TPR thread for pace line selections and know the Doc's guidelines.

Now lets just say for analysis purpose's all your lines are correct. You can't assume that just because a race likes this confuses you that it will run early. Based on your pace lines I see this race running the opposite. The #3 & 7 are a toss for low velocity. The # 4 is strictly early speed with nothing else going for it, out. That leaves as contenders # 1,2, 5 & 6. The 6 is all TT and E and nothing later, he figure to fade and get beat. The # 2 is much better on the Sup. LS and FW etc.

I figure this race to run late and my contenders are 5-1-2. The 5 gaps the others and is a definite of my top two Between the 1 & 2 I would look at some other things to make a final decision. One would be odds and other readouts such as gaps or diff. in V/DC plus there are others things I generally look at. Hope this helps.
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Old 05-31-2016, 08:42 PM   #8
atkinsrr
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Keeneland switched back to dirt in 2015
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Old 06-01-2016, 02:48 PM   #9
DanBoals
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Yes, I should have probably played the class angle with the 2, he seems to have a definite edge there over the other horses. He did run evenly in the G3 which is a good sign.

What is the PF3 ranking? I see the 2 horse was in the top 3 in it. I threw out the 1 and 5 for being too slow early to catch up, which leaves the 2 horse as the best of PF3. I have noticed in other races that this PF3 can lead to some good paying horses, just curious how it is calculated/what it represents?
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Old 06-04-2016, 06:54 AM   #10
cratman
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Grade 3 race

Also, I seem to recollect that the Grade 3 race included trouble for the 2.
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