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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 07-30-2021, 12:39 AM   #1
buffaloxp
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Gulfstream park 7/31 race 9

what line will you use for horse 1,3,6,8?
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Old 07-30-2021, 12:46 AM   #2
buffaloxp
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horse 6-10
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Old 07-30-2021, 12:55 AM   #3
buffaloxp
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can some one tell me what line you will use on horse 1,3,6,8,

thank you
raymond
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Old 07-30-2021, 07:56 AM   #4
dlivery
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buffaloxp View Post
can some one tell me what line you will use on horse 1,3,6,8,

thank you
raymond
1 line 4

3 last

6 last

8 line 2

Lawrence
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Old 07-30-2021, 01:44 PM   #5
Mitch44
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#1 L 3 V -24 very fast
#3 L 2 V -24 very fast
#6 L 1 V 11 normal within range however slow compared to others in here
#8 L 3 V -21 very fast

This is where a consistent procedure comes in for picking a pace line. Also why your using RDSS. The settings within RDSS will also give you a consistent approach to adjustments.

With a recommended setting of -15 & +15 it'll adjust these horses and one should trust the results. Its better than you could do and its applied consistently.
Anything under -15 won't be considered and only 50% 0f the -15 will be considered.

With the wide variants among so many horses in this race its extremely doubtful you'll find another line for all of them, therefore treat them all alike.

The real problem with this race is the UNKNOWN Factors within it. Such as 3 dirt horses and only one are for MTO the #4. The # 9 & 10 are going to try turf and are an unknown quantity. There are a couple 3 yr. old who are on the improve and may keep on improving. A first time Gelding and some new trainers who have only had the horse for less than 3 starts. Definitely not a prime betting situation and ripe for an unset.

Scratches may help a little but not enough to elevate the race to a prime betting situation.

The 6,9 or 10 could all pay a price however there would have to be some risk reward there. The 10 with a 6-1 ML isn't worth the risk but perhaps the odds should go up and it should after last two performances and long layoff.

Tread lightly with just a fun bet.

Mitch44
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Old 07-30-2021, 02:02 PM   #6
rdiam
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My two cents:

1 -- Thorn: try both the July 17 and April 18 lines

3 -- Exponential: June 18 race

6 -- Big City Red: try both the July 17 and June 12 lines

8 -- In Honor of Artie: May 1 race

Like Mitch44 says, this appears to be a chaos race before scratches.

Good luck

Richard
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Old 07-30-2021, 02:43 PM   #7
Bill Lyster
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Horse

1, line 4, don't trust 7.5T lines, especially vs horses who have lines at or near todays distance on the turf. If all you have is 7.5t lines they might be overstating the potential vs the rest of the field.

3, line 1

6, line 1

8, line 5

All of these selections are PROVIDED that each line is within the horses normal energy distribution range. otherwise look again.

Once you see what the range of median energys are for these four horses, check to see how close some of the first time turfers run on dirt. They can be contenders if their median energy and total energy are close to the veteran turf horses. Does not happen too often though, but you gotta check.
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Old 07-30-2021, 11:08 PM   #8
ranchwest
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I have not looked at the other responses yet, but I look forward to reading.

My choices:

#1, line 2
#3, line 1
#6, line 1
#8, line 2

Thanks for doing this.
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Old 07-30-2021, 11:55 PM   #9
buffaloxp
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Thanks for all the info, will use your line see what come up with, update tomorrow after scratches,

raymond
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Old 07-31-2021, 01:07 AM   #10
ranchwest
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
#1 L 3 V -24 very fast
#3 L 2 V -24 very fast
#6 L 1 V 11 normal within range however slow compared to others in here
#8 L 3 V -21 very fast

This is where a consistent procedure comes in for picking a pace line. Also why your using RDSS. The settings within RDSS will also give you a consistent approach to adjustments.

With a recommended setting of -15 & +15 it'll adjust these horses and one should trust the results. Its better than you could do and its applied consistently.
Anything under -15 won't be considered and only 50% 0f the -15 will be considered.

With the wide variants among so many horses in this race its extremely doubtful you'll find another line for all of them, therefore treat them all alike.

The real problem with this race is the UNKNOWN Factors within it. Such as 3 dirt horses and only one are for MTO the #4. The # 9 & 10 are going to try turf and are an unknown quantity. There are a couple 3 yr. old who are on the improve and may keep on improving. A first time Gelding and some new trainers who have only had the horse for less than 3 starts. Definitely not a prime betting situation and ripe for an unset.

Scratches may help a little but not enough to elevate the race to a prime betting situation.

The 6,9 or 10 could all pay a price however there would have to be some risk reward there. The 10 with a 6-1 ML isn't worth the risk but perhaps the odds should go up and it should after last two performances and long layoff.

Tread lightly with just a fun bet.

Mitch44
Does the consistently high %M of the 6, 9 and 10 concern you?

Last edited by ranchwest; 07-31-2021 at 01:15 AM.
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