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Old 07-29-2014, 03:51 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Prince of Wales at Fort Erie

All we get is the runner up from the queens plate and although the 2 is the probable favorite, I think he can be beat. I cannot remember the last time I worked a marathon when the adjusted time is SLOWER than the actual race time for one mile.

Take the 203.4, add 1.5 lengths and subtract 6.4*4 half furlongs and you get 137.9, whereas the mile time plus beaten lengths calcs to 137.1. The final quarter mile was run by this horse is 27 seconds!!!! He did start slow and ran out of his usual mid pack placement, but at 2C was close to usual positioning being 3.5 lengths back vs 3 back in line 2. Maybe its better to use line 2 a 138 mile off a 111.6 pace running 5-5-2

I eliminated the 1-3-5-9 as too slow, leaving the 2-4-6-7-8 and 10. While this race is on dirt my pace lines will be from poly, for the most part, as that is where most of this field usually does its work. the earliest horse I think is going to be either the 4 or the 8. A 47.4-111.3 pace is suggested, but I am thinking that because of the distance 48-112 is more like it. Of the returners from the QP its the only one that closed vs that pace, all the others faltered..

If the 8 goes unchallenged early his mile time is 137.8 off his maiden win ON DIRT at PRX. BTW there are only 5 horses in here that have one beyond their maiden win!!!

The 4 ran a 137.8 pressing 4-1-1 off a 112.3 fraction

The 10 ran a 138.6 running 8-4-3 off a 113 fraction

The 7 is still a maiden but has shown a little life in two grass starts, running 137.2 off of a 111.2 fraction and 134.3 off a 110.2 fraction. No one else has closed well off of fractions like these.

My picks are 4 (closest to the pace) and 7 with the 2 and 8 in the place hole. Across the board on 7 if ML of 20/1 holds up
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Old 08-02-2014, 06:00 PM   #2
DocSartinLearner
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Need answer

Hi Bill L.,

I know that four days gone by since the running of Prince of Wales at Fort Erie, FE #8 on Tuesday, July 29, 2014.
I need answer, because, I still don't understand your calculations from Take the 203.4, add 1.5 lenghts and subtract 6.4*4 half furlongs and you get 137.9, etc.
In the Final Analysis, you was able to eliminate the 1-3-5-9 as too slow, leaving the 2-4-6-7-8 and 10.
Your answer will be very much appreciated.

Thank you,

DSL
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Old 08-02-2014, 07:11 PM   #3
Ted Craven
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Without addressing your question to Bill, here's an alternate take (admittedly after-the-fact):

To use the Projected Pace matchup tool in RDSS, change the distance (on the Card Summary screen, right-click the distance or surface columns for the race) from 9.5f to 8.5f - a distance everyone has run so we can compare apples to apples (however, do not forget to pay attention to who has demonstrated they can finish close at 9f or longer).

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Use the Early horses to project a pace: #8 or #6. #6 has shown it will seek the lead (though it can also finish from 4th position).

I used the #6 as pace setter, at 24 47.9. You could use the #8, maiden win as pace setter and it would not change much analysis - but in this Stakes race, I am loath to give the same credence to efforts in a Maiden win as to higher conditioned races. I have used 2 lines for the 8, partly to show its ability in its G3 MTH effort, but also to show it is an Early from its MS win at PRX.

I view the #6 as likely to more dedicatedly pursue the lead, and based on efforts against higher class horses. One conclusion to make is that the #6 is an Early horse without much high calibre Early competition: thus the race runs Early.

Maybe the #8 wins, maybe the #6 - but don't forget: who has shown it can finish a 9f or longer race, or be close? The #2 and #6 (and not the #8).

For your consideration.

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Old 08-02-2014, 08:17 PM   #4
DocSartinLearner
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got it

Ted:

Well, I expect to learn and use your alternate take, in other words, to use the Projected Pace matchup tool in RDSS by following your step by step procedure. I'll understand this. Just the same, I thank Bill Lyster.

Thank you,

DSL
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Old 08-02-2014, 08:25 PM   #5
Bill Lyster
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This info is in the Hat Check Forum. You can search for Marathon or Marathon spot play.


"Marathon Distance Races at 10f and Longer

I now have added a 4th SPOT PLAY to my Match-Up arsenal.

This is something Jim taught and showed me MONTHS ago and it is FREAKY man! I am dead serious. Look there are many ways to win at the races. Racing is a big umbrella in that regard.

I KNOW it’s time to lay it out because when my CONFIDENCE in something taught is so great that I call the teacher and show races before they run and the horses WIN consistently that SPOT PLAY has “arrived.”

I am gonna gather and show TWO races run in the last 3 days. Full pp’s and then lay out Jim’s EXACT process.

One winner will pay $17.00 and the other will be $4.80. As you will see they really are the SAME HORSE just with a different name.

Once again please keep an OPEN MIND on what you are about to see. It’s REAL man.

This is a TRUE Spot Play in every sense of the word."


2nd of several posts about this play.

"Marathon Race Spot Play

For this Spot Play we have FOUR keys to work with.

1) We are going to work TODAY’S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today’s virtual distance.

Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please.

2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1.

3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp’s which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE.

4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and match up the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f.

THAT is the horse we will bet.

**Important**

I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re-reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed.


3rd Post on this subject
Summary

Jim's thinking in these long races is that to WIN a horse has to have taken control of the race at the mile mark.

He feels that most of the energy has been exerted by the field at that stage and for someone to overcome a bunch of horses AFTER the mile mark is just too difficult to do, with the horses’ energy having been depleted by that stage.

So he started picking the winner at the 8f point of the races. It's amazing in its basic SIMPLICITY and POWER in my opinion.


And finally, something I found at the time this was being posted in 2007

"I read the first of these posts yesterday. Today on the local racing program the SoCal announcer came out with these stats.

The last 31 Big Caps – 1¼ mile - were won by horses that were first or second at the stretch call (i.e. the mile).

41 out of the last 44 Kentucky Derbys (these nos. may be slightly off, it took awhile to put the info into reference) were won by horses that were first or second at the mile call, with Grindstone 4th and Giamcomo 6th - forgot the 3rd non-conformer.

In light of subject matter of this post, I thought this was an amazing set of stats, seemingly perfectly conforming to THE HAT’s observations."

Good luck with your reading and implementation of this spot play.

Bill
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Old 08-02-2014, 09:02 PM   #6
DocSartinLearner
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got this too!

Bill Lyster:

This postcount #5 it explains everything specifically. Really it appreciated very, very much. This info is in the Jim "The HAT" Check Forum. You can search for Marathon or Marathon spot play!

Thank you, Bill Lyster

DSL
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Old 08-22-2014, 08:46 PM   #7
bewalter
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OK, I'm still learning the matchup and I would like to use the "Projected Pace matchup tool". But.... I don't see the "Summary" tab on my version of RDSS2. Is this something that you have to subscribe to?

Thanks for your help.
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Old 08-24-2014, 03:08 PM   #8
DocSartinLearner
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'Prince of Wales at Fort Erie'

Quote:
Originally Posted by bewalter View Post
OK, I'm still learning the matchup and I would like to use the "Projected Pace matchup tool". But.... I don't see the "Summary" tab on my version of RDSS2. Is this something that you have to subscribe to?

Thanks for your help.
--bewalter, sorry to disappoint you on this *Projected Pace* matchup tool process in RDSS2. I'm not the right person to find out from the use of the *Card Summary screen*.

Please HELP and Thank you Anyone if you can.

DSL
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Old 08-25-2014, 01:27 AM   #9
dogkatcher
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bewalter, I believe the "card summary" screen you are looking for is at the bottom
left corner and will show the entire card for whatever track you are working with.

You may change the distance or surface by right clicking on the race of your choice and as Ted said in the example above:

"To use the Projected Pace matchup tool in RDSS, change the distance (on the Card Summary screen, right-click the distance or surface columns for the race) from 9.5f to 8.5f - a distance everyone has run so we can compare apples to apples (however, do not forget to pay attention to who has demonstrated they can finish close at 9f or longer)."

Best of Luck
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Old 08-25-2014, 12:16 PM   #10
raceman5
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What

line are you using in the marathon race where the winner paid 17.00 because if you use his last line he is not the winner. In the race at Saratoga sat the Whitney I believe the choice would of been Bayern who was heads and tails above the others at the 1mile call. just trying to sort this all out.


Bob
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