Turn Time

[Matt D.]

I am interested in learning more about the turn time aspect of the RDSS. In regards to the numbers, is the lower number better? I have found many good bets over the years by looking for horses who tried to take over the race, then ran into problems getting wide on a turn. These horses are easy to playback in their next race(s). For example, for about five years there was a track in Muskegon Michigan that was converted from a 5/8 harness track into a thoroughbred track. Horses would hit the turn go wide and then never be heard from again in the race. Then come back the next race and make the turn and never get caught.

So turn time is a good thing to pay attention to in regards of handicapping with both figures and trips.

Any help with how turn time is computed and what the numbers mean would be helpful.

Matt. D

[CEW]

Hi Matt -

The Sartin definition of turn time (or Second Fraction) for sprints is the pace of the horse from the end of the first quarter mile to the half mile point. In a route, its from the end of the first half mile to the 3/4 mile. So both are 1/4 mile in length.

The strength of the turn time readout is mainly in sprints, and here it is actually run on the far turn. (not so with routes of course). So generally a horse who can't keep in contention on the turn could be in trouble.

I model turn time for both sprints and routes. So I keep a model with the main readouts but also 4 secondary readouts: 1st fraction, Turn Time, Hidden (2nd & 3rd fraction), and 3rd fraction. At Churchill, where I play a good bit, Hidden and third fraction dominate for long periods of time.

As far as horses who run wide....one way to overcome this is to see if he's prone to running wide. If not, go back and get the paceline where he ran well on the turn. If he's always wide, you'll wind with a wide horse again. This is our version of trip handicapping.

Regards,

Chuck