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Old 08-30-2014, 06:32 PM   #1
Ted Craven
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Woodward G1 Saratoga Aug 30

Hello Folks! Against all odds, I find myself again at Saratoga on Woodward day, at the end of my vacation in New England, heading home.

Not the same odds on Moreno this time, but Zivo and Long River do look like good horses to me. Moreno is still a dangerous early horse. Let's see what the odds offer.

Some combo of 6-1-4

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Good luck everyone. I'll post some of m,y photos.

Ted
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Old 08-30-2014, 06:56 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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Very gutsy race by Itsmyluckyday - a near replay of the Whitney.

Result: 2-4-5

On my way home!
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Old 08-31-2014, 08:30 PM   #3
atkinsrr
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Ted dirt speed on the front was winning all day....hate to bet odds this low but Its My Lucky Day and Moreno were my 2 win bets...when the trainer added blinkers to lucky day and stated that his main objective with this horse was to get a G1 win....he sold me
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Old 08-31-2014, 10:08 PM   #4
Dorianmode
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The Woodward was a puzzle to me .. it worked out

The energy profile did look early to me also, (or rather not as "late" as a real "late energy profile" would normally look), as stated above .. so I ran it in my profile as early, neutral, and late. The early profile convinced me.

Here are my RDSS readouts, and my version of (my version of my own stats program similar to "NewPace"'s ranking readout using adjusted speed ratings), (the 12th horse is really 1A .. I haven't bothered to work that into my profile programming yet), my general Dirt Route profile for Saratoga, using an early energy bias, and the TPR+E/L tab from RDSS, (it does look somewhat tilted to "late", but not as late as a real late usually is. If I re-run the profile with a late energy bias, it pops out 1 and 2, instead of 2 and 4 for my top two choices).
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Old 09-01-2014, 01:43 AM   #5
Bill V.
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Wow

Wow Dorianmode
That is some fancy pretty graphic work

Here is my look. its a lot more "down and dirty"


It looks pretty clear to me about the 2 Its my lucky day

Here is my look using Thoromation


Woodward Grade 1 600,000

Horse 1 EP Line 1 is not up close in the stretch in Grade 2
negative sign
Horse 1A Press No Line
Horse 2 Press Line 1 Grade 1 +
Horse 3 Scratch
Horse 4 Early Line 1 Grade 1 +
Horse 5 Press Line 1 (+) Grade 1
Horse 6 Sus Line 1 Negative -- no grade 1 races
Horse 7 Sus No Line No comparable distance grade 1 races
Horse 8 Sus No recent grade 1 + race line 1 at grade 1 is a zero
Horse 9 Sus Line 1 Negative= No grade 1 races


Into KGEN/Thoromation
The 9 is causing the 2 adjust alarm. Is the 9 a true contender
Yes or No ? I say no and scratch it
Now there is no 2 adjustment warning.

Thoromation gets it 4 2 by a big margin

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Old 09-01-2014, 09:36 AM   #6
atkinsrr
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I've been watching SAR all summer and have kept a close eye on early speed...when it rained heavily on thursday night before the Travers...by saturday they listed the dirt as fast but speed was not holding well as you can tell be how they were running ....but without any rain this past week the track got faster as the week progressed...this past saturday Woodward day,.the closers just couldn't get there on the dirt....also for anyone that bets Santa Anita dirt races...they took out the dirt track and installed a new surface that has a high % of sand in it...we'll have to keep good records on that track before betting it...
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