11/1 MNR R#1- Match-Up Practice

[PeteC]

Here is another race to practice with...

1) Identifying Running Styles

2) Projecting Pace

3) Evaluating Early Runners...How have they run against today's pace? NTL's? Fighters? Multiple Styles / Can pass horses if necessary? Does one dominate the others? Do they cancel each other out? Is the group solid enough to beat the OTE's?

4) Decide Early or OTE

5) If OTE, how have they run against today's pace or faster? What positions have they run well from & will they get that position today? Who runs closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of the race?


Review the 5-Step approach and all of Richie's posts...all you need is there. Also, Mark's recent posts offer a GREAT and VERY DETAILED outline too....

Good Matchin' everyone....

[viikinki]

Pace ~24 ~48,4 -> OTE b/c there are couple earlies. I got it down to 3 OTEs: 4,8,9, then to two: 8,9 and I guess I go to #9 because he will be closer to the lead.

[chuckg]

Early horses are 1 and 5. Both have lost open leads in tandem races.

Race will go OTE.

Using 1 as 1st call pacemaker 24.1
Using 5 as 2nd call pacemaker 48.9

Remove 2 7 and 8 from slow tandems.



Of the OTE group 4 Tax Ma and 9 Kid TW are the closest to overtake the pacemakers.

6 and 10 pass horses 2nd to Str but lose ground against today's pace.

Bet 9 to Win.

[Capcondo]

Good race Pete.

Tandems: 24 48.4 1:14.3 1:46.2 with the 1,7,8
24.1 48.1 1;14.1 1;41.1 with the 2 and 4
24.0 48.2 1:14.4 150.3 with the 2 and 8

I am going to use the last line of the 1 as the pace. 24 48.4 1:14.3 1:46.2. It may a bit faster early because of the 5.

It looks like the 1 and 5 will be the pace with the 4 and 9 just behind. I think it will go OTE. Here is the field:

1: E Out
2: P Ran S 3 and 9 races back. Can handle 24.0 23.3 and 23.4. Contender
3: Out
4: E/P Out
5: E Out
6: L Too far back.
7: L Too far back.
8: L Out of fastest tandem. In for now.
9: E/P Out
10: Needs 24.3 to compete. Out.

For me, this race comes down to the 2 and 8. The 8 is late and can't handle the early fractions the 2 can. The 2 is my pick.

[The Pook]

My Winning Group:
1/2/4/7/8

Todays Projected Pace:
47.6/112.8

Early Scenario:
I see this running Early with the above horses able to handle the projected pace.

Tandems:
Horses taking turns beating each other with the 1 beat consistently. (1 out)

Leaves 2/4/7/8. The #2's win came from leading the whole way. Won't lead today. (2 Out)
Of the remaining 4 and 8 have the earliest energy distribution.

Conclusion:
Bet (4/8) if sufficient odds. If not then 7/1/2 in order.

Pook

[mowens33]

Race 1

[PeteC]

Mike, great job getting the winner and nailing that trifecta! You are doing really nice work on these threads, keep it up....

Hey, 2 races this weekend, 2 $40 winners that you and Pook combined for....not too shabby....

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by PeteC

Mike, great job getting the winner and nailing that trifecta! You are doing really nice work on these threads, keep it up....

Hey, 2 races this weekend, 2 $40 winners that you and Pook combined for....not too shabby....

Ooops, this one was ONLY $30