Data Base - MatchUp Question
 

Query:

Two or three early horses in a race with first call times within 1/5 second of each other.

Race projection other than early.

I'm curious how often the early horse wins anyway. (Average odds would be interesting too.)

I'm sure there might be some here with data base capabilities or records of such information.

I could make a "ballpark" guess, but that's all it would be.

Obviously, the early horses are going to win "some" percentage of the time when there is other matching speed in the race, but I'm curious what that might be broken down for sprint/route, turf, poly, overall, etc. There might even be a big difference between maiden and claimers, allowance and stakes races.

I'm not talking about using Quirin speed points, but actual first call times.

Thanks to anyone that can help.

[It's times like these that I wish I had data base skills. Poof! Query the data base, and I have my answer(s).]

[Oh, my ballpark guess? 7-15%~]

DEPENDS on the track; Fort Erie, inner AQU, Woodbine in November the first horse out of the gate often wins.

Fair Grounds, Kentucky Downs, Hawthorne etc. maybe not

Please show your data for that.

I do not keep a database any longer as it dilutes reality, BUT 7 years of data (that I just threw out) said that. Don't believe me or anyone else, collect it yourself and you will see the same thing...

The ONLY reality is the specific match up for the race you are considering.

OK, here is the deal. I asked for someone who ACTUALLY has the data to respond. If no one responds, or doesn't have any data, fine. You obviously don't. Your data is only empirical, and there is nothing wrong with that as far as it goes, but at least give some numbers. Then you said you HAD the data, but you threw it it. You give no percentages, no statistics, no guesses, no nothing. The only hard evidence you provided was the word "often." You don't bother defining often or giving any numbers to back it up. If you had simply said, "In my observations, the first horse out of the gate at Woodbine wins about 80% of the time, that would at least be something. But you don't even do that.

Why are you wasting my time? If I had the data, I wouldn't have asked the ****ing question in the first place.

So please do me a favor from now on. Stay out of my threads, and I'll stay out of yours.

I'm sick and tired of your goddamn bull****.

A forum is a place where people discuss things unless the definition changed over night.

EARLY is where it's at the majority of race tracks on dirt: ALWAYS has been with the likes of Chinook Pass and the rest that get out and don't look back.

Hsh
 

Turbulator, I am not sure if the current version of HSH does this, but I remember using the DOS version of HSH which was called HNB (The Handicapper's Notebook). It would not surprise me if a query which Dave Schwartz calls filters is possible using the current version of HSH.

Dave Schwartz uses Clarion for his database and he is a very capable DB programmer. This does not answer your question, but I sent Dave Schwartz an e-mail to see if a query such as this can be done.

My database skills are minimal so I wouldn't know where to start.

Database Reply
 

Turbulator, here is the reply from Dave Schwartz which may not be what you are asking for.

Since we do nothing with "raw times" (everything is converted to ratings) it would be impossible to test.

If speed ratings would do, that would be possible.

Jeff Platt response
 

Hi Mike,
The "gotcha" that you threw is the phrase "Race projection other than early."
What I have to say might ruffle a few feathers because it goes against the grain of current discussions on Sartin match up concepts...
But my own research very clearly indicates the most accurate means of projecting a race as either "early" or "other than early" has far more to do with the surface being either speed friendly or speed tiring than the amount of pace pressure within a race or the way that the horses within the race match up. On speed tiring surfaces early horses tire early and spit the bit. On speed favoring surfaces even cheap speed has the ability to wire almost any field.
My research very clearly indicates two long term patterns as the public bets the races:
1. Early speed is consistently ignored while late speed is consistently overbet.
2. Form or readiness is a measurable commodity and the public has very little idea of how to go about doing that. Workouts can be a good way to identify readiness. Horses with 5f or longer bullet drills are frequently ignored by the public. Yet if the same "move" were made in the afternoon during a race the public would be all over the horse.
Ok. That said, back to your question: "How often does the early horse win?"
I'll try to run a few data samples and shoot them your way (time allowing) later.
Jeff

Taking things a little further, in the question you put to me "I'm curious how often the early horse wins anyway" my own data studies very clearly show that form or readiness has more of an influence than

For clarity the matchup concepts of Jim Bradshaw are NOT Sartin matchup concepts. They have nothing to do with Howard's Sartin methodology of today discussed in the last 8-10 followups the man published.

Turbulator I have to post when there are gross misrepresentations of my mentors teachings and the above quote is just that. I'll bow out now.

Take care:)