Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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MatchUP Observation

I'm curious about something. First some definitions.

Contender:

A contender is any horse who has shown it can run competitively against today's projected first fraction.

Non-contender:

All others

I've been looking at a lot of old races, and I've noticed that most of the winning horses matchup to the first fraction. Now granted, sometimes every horse in the race who rates a line matches up this way, but other times half the field or less meets the criteria. And there are many instances where horses who look pretty good on paper don't match up this way at all. They just don't seem to get the job done.

The eventual winners might not be the horses I would pick, or they might otherwise have some strikes against them, but it seems like they match up to the first fraction a very high percentage of the time.

Here is just one (of many) examples:

Notice the 4 and the 8 horse don't matchup to the fist fraction. (The 1 horse won the race.)

But if you look at the bottom line betting line screen the 4 and 8 are ranked very highly while the 1 is ranked much lower. (The way I look at things this should be the other way around.)

Admittedly this was somewhat of a paceless race, but it doesn't seem to matter.

I'm curious if any of you matchers have noticed this or if any of you RDSS (Sartin) guys think this might be relevant to your contender selection or handicapping.

Steve

Quote:

"Notice the 1 is rated much lower"

You have two ratings for the 3 horse When I put in two lines for a horse
I take out the one the program likes least
If you were to do this does the 1 horse improve
its VDC rank ?
and maybe it will change the blbl tier readouts
plus the winner already has the #1 rank in FX in a sprint race this can be a big corollary

thats really what I look at as a Sartin user

thanks
Bill

hi buddy...looking at your beaten lengths column....there is no one that actual had the lead....were there any early horses in this race...

mike

Richie taught us in a paceless race if a horse finds himself on the lead by default , then throw him out...so the #3 is out...

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57 (Post 37860)

Richie taught us in a paceless race if a horse finds himself on the lead by default , then throw him out...so the #3 is out...

I do not go anywhere near races where I can not find an actual early running horse to project a 1c pace from. That should say something about my proficiency in pace less races ok? Like I suck man.

What I would strongly suggest is to find that thread where I talk about the paceless race and all that. Now in that thread Jim makes at least 1 if not a couple of posts about it. Read HIS thoughts a couple of times slowly.

He doesn't use a lot of words but if you go through them a few times slowly you will pick up an idea of what he is saying while applying it MUCH better than I have.

Maybe someone could dig that thread up for folks and post the link so Jim's feedback can be read?

Steve:
Great thread man!

Not sure if this is thread Richie is refering to, but

The Hat

Quote:

The race is an example illustrating the process used to project the pace in a pace-less race. Once we project the pace, the horses will be matched against this pace to decide if they are contenders.

None of the horses in this race are Early horses. In their past performances, some of the horses have gone for the lead, but their first calls are extremely slow. This race is classified as a pace-less race, but someone must take the lead, in a pace-less race look for an Early Presser as the horse most likely to take the lead.

http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/sho...?t=1671&page=4

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D (Post 37872)

Not sure if this is thread Richie is refering to, but

The Hat

http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/sho...?t=1671&page=4

Charlie
That is not the one I am thinking of BUT look at Hat's post #37 in the thread. Let's read what he says while looking at the pp's to see what he refers too ok?

You might have just helped me Charlie because to be honest the stuff in this thread is what I stopped doing and went off on this tangent of automatically throwing out the horse I thought was gonna get the lead man.

Reading Jim's words HE is definitely NOT saying that is he?

Thank you.

Hey this is a great thread Steve started man regarding the 1st fraction and I don't want to throw it off his focus please. Sorry Steve.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 37875)

Jim seems to be saying move the Presser(s) up to Early horse(s) Richie

just watched the race...

they went to the 1st quarter and half pretty much the same position 3-8-4-1

then the #1 blew em away at the end of the turn..

but the times were 23.2 47.4....even with the slow pace the 3 couldn't even finish 2... it was 1-8-3-7

So in paceless races do we call it an OTE and throw out the projected leader thats not used to the lead?

mike

Without seeing ALL PP's it hard to give any feedback

Turbulator has used Lines 4/5 for the #3 and this suggests #3 may be an "out of form" horse, so should it be included as a contender here???