Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

horsecharles · 08-05-2008, 11:15 PM

Example 3-- How do you determine if a stalker/presser can handle today's extreme pace of race?

Alw NW1 3&up 6F

Stalker/presser-- 5 lifetime starts-- typical line w/ lengths behind:

22.4(4th by 3) - 45.6(3rd by 2½) - 110.2(1st by nk) This is also the farthest behind the pacesetter it's ever been at.

Today, 3 speedballs will create an early E2 8-10 lengths faster than the stalker has ever faced before... and melt out of the first two finish positions.

In addition, there are 4 stone closers(6+ lengths behind) used to facing such a fast pace of race, with varying Final Times between 110 & 110.4

Track favors speed slightly, but in spite of that, all the deep closers have won or finished a close second over the oval.

What is the most common result:

A. Stalker too close to pace of race & is burned too.
B. Stalker close to pace but able to power past leaders and hold off deep closers.
C. Stalker hangs way further back, doesn't like this new positioning, and finishes well-beaten.
D. Ditto-- except this helps it relax more & post an even faster F3...leading to big win.

The only way I've been able to halway hazard a guess is by odds-- ML & post time.

Example 4-- Do you favor either of these two closer types, both with identical final time?

Closer 1-- 10.6 beaten lengths @ pace call, F3: 37.5
Closer 2-- 19.1 beaten lengths @ pace call, F3: 36

I would favor 2, even on speed-biased oval. I would assume they won't run so spread out from each other.

Example 5-- Closer(usually @ 5-6 lengths behind) is now in a race where the pace of the frontrunners is @5 lengths SLOWER. FInal times are all within 2 lengths + or -. What do you do?

Again, thank you very kindly for any / all comments.

08-05-2008, 11:15 PM	#1
horsecharles AlwNW1X Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 5	Unusual Pace Matchup Questions Closers Example 3-- How do you determine if a stalker/presser can handle today's extreme pace of race? Alw NW1 3&up 6F Stalker/presser-- 5 lifetime starts-- typical line w/ lengths behind: 22.4(4th by 3) - 45.6(3rd by 2½) - 110.2(1st by nk) This is also the farthest behind the pacesetter it's ever been at. Today, 3 speedballs will create an early E2 8-10 lengths faster than the stalker has ever faced before... and melt out of the first two finish positions. In addition, there are 4 stone closers(6+ lengths behind) used to facing such a fast pace of race, with varying Final Times between 110 & 110.4 Track favors speed slightly, but in spite of that, all the deep closers have won or finished a close second over the oval. What is the most common result: A. Stalker too close to pace of race & is burned too. B. Stalker close to pace but able to power past leaders and hold off deep closers. C. Stalker hangs way further back, doesn't like this new positioning, and finishes well-beaten. D. Ditto-- except this helps it relax more & post an even faster F3...leading to big win. *The only way I've been able to halway hazard a guess is by odds-- ML & post time.* Example 4-- Do you favor either of these two closer types, both with identical final time? Closer 1-- 10.6 beaten lengths @ pace call, F3: 37.5 Closer 2-- 19.1 beaten lengths @ pace call, F3: 36 I would favor 2, even on speed-biased oval. I would assume they won't run so spread out from each other. Example 5-- Closer(usually @ 5-6 lengths behind) is now in a race where the pace of the frontrunners is @5 lengths SLOWER. FInal times are all within 2 lengths + or -. What do you do? Again, thank you very kindly for any / all comments.