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Old 08-19-2008, 08:05 AM   #2
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
The Process

This requires a projected pace 1c-2c.

Beginning and intermediate matchers here is a tip that will pay big dividends:
Focus on races where you can project a pace from an on the lead early horse.

The next thing is:
Take the time and actually DO IT. Project that pace either by writing it on the top of your Form (Hat's way) or key stroking in on tools such as RDSS (my way).

Heads up for beginners unfamiliar with projecting pace is to grab Hat's 5 step approach and read it. Cornerstone of everything being done here in the Hat Check. Here are Jim's words on projecting pace taken directly from his 5 step approach:
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"Pace is The Match Up and through pace analysis and projecting the probable pace of today's race you can find the pace a horse can win against and the pace they fail against. Each horses running line and running style will be matched against the others, fraction by fraction, to find the line to use in today's race.

The fractional times used are the first call, the quarter mile in sprints, and the half mile time in routes. The second call is the half mile in sprints, and the six-furlongs in routes. The third fraction is the difference between the second call and final time.

There are two ways to project pace.

1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close.
Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace are will have difficulty winning.

2. Find the horse that has run the best against the fastest pace in his last race, at today's track, and at today's distance. Tandem races are good races used in this procedure. If none of the horse have run at today's distance consider any fast sprint, or any fast route line. This horse is the pace horse that all the other horses will be matched against.

This race from the pace horse will be used as the initial projected pace of today's race. All the other horses in the race must be able to run against this pace. Match every horse in the race, with the initial projected pace. Any horse that doesn't match today's pace will not be considered as a win contender."
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Again I will ask everyone not to go past this post until you are familiar with projecting a pace and have the conditions present described in the opening post here.

Thank you
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