|
The fastest on the break is #-1, with two break positions at 21.7, 1st out the gate.
The fastest out the gate being 1st that the #-4 has is a 21.9. He can only be challenged and win as an Early horse in a 22.9
The #-4 needs to be 1st at the break call. The #-4 needs a 1/2 length comfort lead at the 1st call at a 22.2, and the #-1 can also break 1st position and get the lead at the 1st call at a 22.2.
The #-4 has lost the race out the gate, will be challenged, and lose the rest of the race. (as an Early horse)
The #-1 needs a 2-1/2 comfort lead at the 1st call at a 22.3. The #-1 does not win fighting, and the fastest he can fight is 22.3.
The #-1 fades as an Other-Than-Early horse. The #-1 loses the entire race, he cannot win.
This race will run Other-Than-Early and the #-4 will have to be measured against the other OTE horses in the race.
I will be curious to find how right or off I was.
VoodooFan
|