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Old 11-04-2011, 03:04 AM   #3
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveEdwards View Post

On old tapes etc there are references to recording where the winner was at the second call. Would it be a reasonable assumption that if the horse ran a similar race in terms of 2nd call position (or any other comparative between the latest race and the selected paceline) that the corollaries might also be similar? Also, is the issue of 2nd call now outdated and that I ought to be perhaps just concentrating on the corollaries?

Thank you.
Thank YOU for the question.

I have been meaning to write a post on this subject and your question has presented me with the perfect opportunity.

The second call IS NOT DEAD.

As a reminder to those who have read this before and to those who may not be aware, I have more than 500,000 races and 4,000,000+ horses in a database. I think that is what might be considered "overkill" when it comes to accurate statistical findings, but it is what it is, conclusive information.

In each year there are more than 40,000 winners in my database for that year. I went back ten years and looked at how winners ran their races. There was no "cherry picking" here. These results are from the lowliest maidens to the best Grade I races and which were run on all surfaces. He are the results.

61.32% of all winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the first call
71.11% of all winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the second call

Some of you might be saying, yeah, but how many of those horses that were 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the second call were further back than 3rd at the first call? Well, I'm glad you asked.

12.76% of those horses that were 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the second call were further back than 3rd at the first call.

For all you guys that just love those late running, hard charging, come from dead last at the top of the stretch, just get up at the wire type of winners? Sorry, they win about 4% of all races, which means, they weren't even 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the stretch call!

Now, that was ten years ago. So I did the same survey for last year.
The results were, with very minimal differences, the same.
So nothing has changed.

My suggestion would be to keep the charts from the track(s) you play on a regular basis. Naturally, there will be some tracks where the second call percentage will be lower. Of course, that means there will be other tracks where that second call percentage is higher, since it all has to average out. Then choose the track(s) you want to play based on your preferential style.
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