Mike here is EXACTLY what I did right or wrong. Then let me bow out cause Kianti is breaking my stones here man!
The first screen shot shows Divine Park in Spec mode with the recommended (rightly so imo) 50% variant. The difference between the top 2 races shows as 13 lengths on TPR (Cpr middle tab).
The 2nd screen shot shows Divine Park in same Spec mode but switching to 100% variant. Now the difference shows as 3 lengths.
Imho there is NO possible way an in form horse runs 2 sharp races within 30 days and one is almost 15 lengths faster than the other. That is what the 50% is showing.
2nd confirming factor is checking the Equibase Speed ratings on top right. They show 116 and 110 for the 2 races. Give or take that's about 2-3 lengths.
It took less than a second once I saw this to trust scenario 2 and go with the 100 here win lose or draw.
I've learned to use the program as a tool to help me and not have it use me as a slave to it.