[lsosa54]

For ME, and I emphasize the ME, my first determination has to be whether the horse can be successful at today's conditions, most importantly the class level where it will run today. The other important issue for me is how it got there - in other words, reading the pp's from the bottom up ala Bob Purdy. What is the horse's "story", so to speak.

Is it a negative class drop? Is he moving up from a loss at a lower level - is there a reason why I may consider him today? Has he been running way above his head but he was dropped a bit last time and showed some signs of life and he's being dropped again today?Has he hit significant trouble in his last couple or has he been at the "wrong" distance/surface and now today he is a spot to run well?

That's all I ask for - I then let EXDC do its thing.

Again, for me, the matchup is important but just because the horse appears to win the matchup doesn't mean he's going to beat a field of allowance horses if he's been running at claiming 7500n3L. One has to be reasonable.
However, let's say for Richie, class differences may not be an issue for him.

To me, there's no magic here, just logic. No one gives away anything at the race track.

Trainers prepare their horses all the time, depending what their objectives are. They give them a route or turf tuneup to get a bit more stamina and then cut them back to a dirt sprint shooting for the win. A trainer that mostly claims will use a different approach than a trainer who gets expensive and excellent stock and is not in a hurry to win. A trainer who bets may use a different approach than one who doesn't. They know the tracks condition book and what races may be carded so they plan accordingly.

I don't get caught up in too much of that - if I think the horse is in a good position today and he is one of my choices, I will bet him at the proper odds for me. If I know the trainer is a 3% trainer and has been so for the 20 years I've been following the SoCal circuit, I will need significant odds or no bet. There will be better bets down the road, even if he adds a win to that 3%. One also needs to be wary of horses with a solid last race that are 2-17, 3-26, 4-40 - you get my drift. Why place your hard earned money on inconsistent animals?

Class droppers have to be respected always and negative class droppers will beat you at even money on occassion but as Brohamer states, move on. Class risers off a loss, especially out of the money, are tough bets unless they have been claimed recently by a solid trainer or showed something in that loss (unusually high early speed, etc.). Most of my claiming winners come from droppers finding their proper level or horses that ran at today's level in their last. You also don't want them running at today's level for too long. A horse that won for 5000n2L may need a race or two at 5000n3L before he's ready to go for the win at that level.

No major breakthroughs in the above comments, but to me, all else is secondary to the particular horse fitting today's conditions and can he attempt to do what he's asked to do today and put himself in position to win, as a win is never guaranteed in a stochastic, chaos filled event.

If there are fans of the show Hunter with Freddy Dryer out there - "works for me".