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Old 11-04-2012, 08:49 PM   #1
shoeless
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Edge in class good example

Here is a good example that will illustrate what Davidowitz was talking about
in his book Betting Thoroughbreds about an edge in class.

Today's race at Parx was 1mi 70 CLMn1y.


Pino and I hit this horse today at a very generous price of 5-1 which
I believe was due to people just looking at the horses last race which was
an obvious workout.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:35 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
Here is a good example that will illustrate what Davidowitz was talking about
in his book Betting Thoroughbreds about an edge in class.

Today's race at Parx was 1mi 70 CLMn1y.


Pino and I hit this horse today at a very generous price of 5-1 which
I believe was due to people just looking at the horses last race which was
an obvious workout.
I'm not sure if the last race was a workout OR if the horse was just placed a little bit higher in class, which could amount to the same thing.

The one thing that caught my attention was the class/conditions shown.
n1y...to me = non winners of one in a year. Likewise,
n2y...to me = non winners of two in a year.

Today's race and the last two races were all non winners in 6 month conditions, with today's race and the second race back being non winners of one in six months, while the last race was non winners of TWO in six months.

Here is today's condition and the last two races conditions as published by Equibase. Either way, it amounts to the same idea, which is what I believe you were targeting.
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Old 11-05-2012, 03:53 AM   #3
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Whoa...we've got two different last two race classifications in the past performances here! Now which one is it? C7500n2y and c7500n1y or c7500n2-6mx and c7500n1-6m? Both sets can't be right!

Jon
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Old 11-05-2012, 04:00 AM   #4
Jonathan Steele
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
Here is a good example that will illustrate what Davidowitz was talking about
in his book Betting Thoroughbreds about an edge in class.

Today's race at Parx was 1mi 70 CLMn1y.


Pino and I hit this horse today at a very generous price of 5-1 which
I believe was due to people just looking at the horses last race which was
an obvious workout.
Congratulations on the score, Shoe. I see more than just a class drop. Horse went up in class last race, showed early speed then faded. A good sign in my book. The horse is also a Type I (or "A" angle) and T2a angle horse in addition to being a WIR angle horse and 3 outs in 12 days (thanks, Jerry Stokes) with what looks to be a bullet workout at 7 furlongs 8 days ago which would also qualify it as a Super Workout (SW) and PI2 angle according to Boxcar's handicapping methodology. In addition, the horse is coming off a layoff (I use 30-days. Heck, if you're off 30-days from work, for example, it's a layoff in my book!).

Jon
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Old 11-05-2012, 04:26 AM   #5
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P.S. Horse is also an A2 angle horse. Thanks Boxcar!

Jon
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Old 11-05-2012, 06:21 AM   #6
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Hi Jon nice to see you posting again.


It was for horses who had not won a race in 6 months.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:15 AM   #7
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good example

Thanks Jeff

Those NW2-6m races are a big jump

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Old 11-05-2012, 05:03 PM   #8
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Jon,

I dont see how you and Pino can keep up with the names for all
of those different angles.

I was weened at Charles Town back when they were running for purses
below 1000, so to me nothing was as important as trainer maneuvers.But
I didnt have any names for them I just knew what to look for.


As far as Davidowitz is concerned he was really ahead of his time.When
his first book came out and he wrote about the minor racing class system
there were no conditions in the pp's.You had to save the racings forms
because they were in the charts.
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Old 11-05-2012, 06:05 PM   #9
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Jon did very well in point out some of the horse's attributes but did forget the BBA, HW, SH, DC, UD, FH, WR1, P, Y+, attributes.
with 5 performance attributes, 3 trainer intent and 6 MAC, horse #6 was a great contender.
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Old 11-16-2012, 06:52 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
Hi Jon nice to see you posting again.


It was for horses who had not won a race in 6 months.
Thanks, Shoe, glad to hear from you. Just trying to get back into it again.

Jon
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