Florida Derby 2008 Contenders

[raceman5]

Great job guys on breaking down the Florida Derby, but here is the question for you. Aren't you contradicting the matchup by not putting in the 3 and seven? I used the 12 horse last race as the predicted pace 22.4 45.1 109.4 the only other 2 horses that can run anywhere near that pace are the 3 and 7. So why leave them out of the mix? I loved the 12 but thats besides the point. Maybe RichieP can chime in here with his comments.

Bob

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Storm,

RDSS and most of the later Sartin software does use FW. Look in the Primary Screen. Don't know what WX is but sounds suspiciously like a milkshake of FW and FX. There's only so many ways to slice and dice 3 fractions of velocity...

Jim, congrats on a great FL Derby call! All lines within the last 3, mostly the last line.

Ted

You're right Ted - WX or XW was used early on. From FU #1:

[froggy]

Storm,
I wasn't home most of yesterday but I did get home in time to see the race.
And today I just got home from the book and saw you post with everybody's answers.
So to help answer the question: "How does a frog do a race?"
First I try to get a line for each horse.
The best way for me is to use the best of the last 3 dirt for dirt, turf for turf,route for route, sprint for sprint.
I will go down 5 or 6 lines if necessary to get the best of the last 3.
If a horse was behind 9 or 10 lengths in his last two and there is no excuse, I don't mess with him.
Because I am working at getting enough winners to survive I don't agonize long over any given race.
I know I'm going to lose about 4 out of 10.
Because of that I use a basic mechanical approach.
Here are the screens for the derby as I go through my method.
First a line for every horse that deserves one.
Second the energy screen and eliminate down to 5 and ties.
Third go to Original screen and export.
Go to BL/BL and take a picture to go to the book with.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by stormbringer

I also found a copy of Q Scan for Thoroughbreds. Is there any info in the library on Q Scan?

Mr. Bringer of Storms: I never heard of a Q Scan for tbreds. Only one I know of is for quarter horses. No info in the library unfortunately. You haven't dug up an Ultra Scan manual in that treasure chest, by chance, have you?

Lou

[froggy]

Storm,
Here is the most important part of what I do.
Energy is where I make my decisions from.
In this case the Variegate indicated early.
There would have been two bets and with odds of 3/2 and 16/1 I would have bet 90/10 ($8 & $2) and the payoff woud have been $20. I would have doubled my money.

Froggy

[dodeca]

I did not download Gp since I didn't like the rest of the card. I had some down time and had 10 min. so I looked at this race since I had a racing form. After a glance thought the final fraction and Pizzola's ppf would fit this race.
I projected to 8.5 fur since this was easiest. First # is the ff of the race and 2nd is horses ppf.
1) 31.1/31.1
2)31.1/31.2
3-7)slow!
8)32.1/32.2
9+10)slow
11)31.3/31.3
12) 32.2/32.2 slow BUT check out the monster Turf ff 2 back-28.2
I bet an exacta of 2+12 with the 1-2-8-12. I discounted the 1 to win because in the tandem he was running out of steam at the end of his race. The 2 was making a move.The 11 was coming out of an easy short field AW so I tossed him. The eights ff is slow but I included him since once in a while a closer picks up place despite their slower ff.
I wish the rest of the weekend went this easy, a plethora of nw2 lifetime is killing me. Big Brown sort of reminds me of Barbaro. Monster ffs on Turf, but slow ff on dirt at GP.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by stormbringer

Could Froggy or Jim G or Richie P or Admin please show me how you would narrow the field for the Florida Derby this year down to six (6) contenders? To me, this was the toughest race of the year and I don't see how you could have thrown out anybody as not being a viable contender. I put this race through Phase III, but I had too many contenders, as usual.

Storm: Kudos go to all who got this race but I wouldn't feel too bad about finding it tough. IMHO, this isn't a bread & butter Methodology race.

The only G1 winner in the field is Majestic and that was a 7f race as a 2yo. His 2 races after that are pretty uninspiring. No other horse has run well in a G1 other than the Peruvian monster, Tomcito, but this ain't Lima.

The favorite looked tough although he was parked wide and was coming off a monster race, but at one turn. He should be able to handle 2 turns based on his maiden breaker on tuf and his trainer is very high percentage. The 2nd favorite was an obvious contender also.

What's that old saying: By your deeds you shall be judged? One can eliminate:

#3 - all he's done is a maiden breaker in the slop. OUT
#5 - all he's done is broke his maiden at Woodbine. His GP race is good but it's an 87 @ N1X. Today he's facing a 98 at his class and a 100 in a G2. OUT
#6 - same basic problem - not fast enough with that 90. OUT
#7 - broke maiden in an mcl. Trainer 0-25 in graded races. Outclassed, even with that 95 sr in his last - looks like he caught some tired puppies. OUT
#10 - his last race as a 2yo was bad and his first as a 3yo was marginally better. OUT
#9 - this one took a bit longer to decide, but I eliminated him based on his 90 sr in his last race where he won by 6. The 110 is impressive but was on a good track and I can't trust it. OUT
#4 - only question is whether you leave him in as an unknown. I decided not to. His Peruvian wins are impressive but his trainer's record is mediocre at best and the highest purse he won for is $45K. In retrospect, he ran well. OUT

That leaves me the 1,2,8,11,12. The #11 has won off a layoff so I left him in.

Run it through EXDC with the 2 adjust. Why the 2 adjust? The 11 came up with total energy about 2 points higher than anyone else. My experience tells me his sr should then be the best in the field but it's not so I don't want to give him that advantage. In any case, the #11 is not going to to run to the total energy of his last race because no way he gets away with that kind of pace here, but that's Richie's domain.

[stormbringer]

FRIST I USED "THE ADMIN" METHOD ON 11 RACE'S ON 3/29/08 CARD. AT OAKLAWN I DID RACE'S 3,4,6,8,9 AND 10 ALL RACE'S HAD THE WINNER IN THE TOP 5 ONE TRI AND ONE SUPER, AND 3 EXCTAS...ALSO I DID 5 RACE'S FROM SANA ANTIA 1,2,5,7, AND 8 ALL BUT 2 RACE'S HAD THE WINNER IN THE TOP 2 RACE 7 THERE IS A STARTER HANDICAP RACE 8 IS A GRADE 3 SPRINT WOULD YOU GUYS LOOK AT THOSE TWO RACE'S FOR ME PLEASE
HOW DID YOU GUY'S LEARN THIS STUFF I HAVE THREE BOX'S OF FU AND I NEVER LEARNED AS MUCH I AM NOW ON THIS SITE WITH YOU PEOPLE. I FEEL REAL DUMB COMPAIRED TO ALL OF YOU ALL. I AM DONATE $100.00 TO PACE AND CAPTO TRY TO GET THEM TO OPEN A SPOT FOR TEACHING GETTING THE RIGHT CONTENDERS IN, IF YOU DON'T HAVE THE RIGHT CONTENDERS YOU GOT NOTHING THANKS AGAIN BILL,TURFSPECULATOR,RICHIE,TED,ISOSA54, RACEMAN5,DODECA, AND FROGGY. I'M LOOKING FOR INFO ON ULTRASCAN.. ONE MORE THING HOW OLD IS EXDC THROMATION PROGRAM? GOOD LUCK TED ON THE NEW UPDATE

STORM

OH! ONE MORE THING I HANDICAP ALL 11 RACE'S IN 40 MINUTES A RECORD FOR ME BY 2 HOURS AND I GOT TO SEE BIG BROTHER.

[admin]

Hello Strormbringer

Here is how I would have done race 8

Here are my thoughts

Here is race 8 G3 $100000
horse 2 Two down hill turf lines Who knows??? Red dot
horse 3 Line 2 87 SR 109 RC Yellow dot
horse 5 Line 1 81 SR 86 RC Green dot
horse 1 Line 1 86 SR 101 RC APV CR ok
horse 4 Line 1 82 SR 72 RC poor apv CR
horse 6 Line 2 90 SR Line 3 90 SR Primary line score says line 2 is best RC 105
apv cr so so
horse 7 Line 1 91 SR 99 CR Maiden win line APV 47% too low I look for over 80% from maiden winners
Horse 8 Line 1 81 SR 96 CR Poor APV CR or else I would use line 2 88 SR
Here the analysis contenders On the Primary screen I will hide the two none Poly lines
horse # 5 and 4
I have the maiden winner 7 right on top I will go with the 6 and 1 not knowing the odds
but 2/1 ML and a route line
My bets would be the 6 and 1

[froggy]

A quote from Storm.
"I NEVER LEARNED AS MUCH I AM NOW ON THIS SITE WITH YOU PEOPLE."

Thanks to Bill thats why we're here.
Just a few folks that have underlined about a zillion pace lines and put hard money on those lines.

Glad you learned something.

Froggy