Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) > Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum General Handicapping Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-30-2008, 10:36 AM   #1
stormbringer
Grade 1
 
stormbringer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 299
Florida Derby 2008 Contenders

Could Froggy or Jim G or Richie P or Admin please show me how you would narrow the field for the Florida Derby this year down to six (6) contenders? To me, this was the toughest race of the year and I don't see how you could have thrown out anybody as not being a viable contender. I put this race through Phase III, but I had too many contenders, as usual.

Also, Ted, I tried my old Phase III Program and tried to export to Phase III. For some reason, it wouldn't take the three (3) call races. I had to hand enter the races. It was a lot of trouble, but I did it.

One more question: Why do we not use Factor WX and FW? I know these are old and Dr. Sartin quit using them a long time ago, but can anybody tell me why? or -- are they incorporated in the RDSS? I also found a copy of Q Scan for Thoroughbreds. Is there any info in the library on Q Scan? Thanks Guys, you're the best. Your Friend, Stormbringer
stormbringer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 10:46 AM   #2
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Jms62

KC

Check out Jim's (Jms62) pre race post in selections area yesterday. He had 3 contenders with a HUGE gap separating themselves from the field. From those 3 came the winner and place horse for a VERY nice exacta score.

He had the race nailed down so maybe he could chime in man.
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 11:46 AM   #3
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Storm,

RDSS and most of the later Sartin software does use FW. Look in the Primary Screen. Don't know what WX is but sounds suspiciously like a milkshake of FW and FX. There's only so many ways to slice and dice 3 fractions of velocity...

Jim, congrats on a great FL Derby call! All lines within the last 3, mostly the last line.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 01:50 PM   #4
admin
Administrator
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
Florida Derby

By Bill

Hi Storm

This is how I do any race
I use Val 4 mode. I look for the best speed rating in the last 3 or maybe 4 races on the adjusted screen using lines with less than 7.5 beaten lengths
I use the base of an 80 speed rating and Race Class and the APV CR ratings to judge the power of a horse. I start with the red dot apv cr horse.
In the Florida derby

#10 no line the 87 3 back at Saratoga 7.0 is niced but what have you done lately ?? Red dot
#12 Line 1 93 SR 95 RC Yellow dot apv
#2 Line 1 90 SR 102 RC Green Dot APV CR
Now the rest
# 1 Line 1 91 SR 102 RC
# 3 No line So far I have all over 90 SR and this horse is an 83 at best as a Maiden
#4 Foreign Horse ???
#5 No Line same story as # 3 but even slower speed ratings
# 6 Line 2 86 SR 98 Race class so so APV CR
# 7 No Line best is 83 SR but only a 90 RC very low APV CR
#8 Line 2 86 SR 102 RC APV CR ok
#9 Line 2 87 SR 102 RC APV CR ok
#11 Last line 90 SR 98 RC poor APV CR but its the last line
That's everyone
Now here are the SR CR APV CR contenders
then I will show how I get down to only 5 horses
Attached Images
  
admin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 01:53 PM   #5
jms62
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 798
Quote:
Originally Posted by stormbringer View Post
Could Froggy or Jim G or Richie P or Admin please show me how you would narrow the field for the Florida Derby this year down to six (6) contenders? To me, this was the toughest race of the year and I don't see how you could have thrown out anybody as not being a viable contender. I put this race through Phase III, but I had too many contenders, as usual.

Also, Ted, I tried my old Phase III Program and tried to export to Phase III. For some reason, it wouldn't take the three (3) call races. I had to hand enter the races. It was a lot of trouble, but I did it.

One more question: Why do we not use Factor WX and FW? I know these are old and Dr. Sartin quit using them a long time ago, but can anybody tell me why? or -- are they incorporated in the RDSS? I also found a copy of Q Scan for Thoroughbreds. Is there any info in the library on Q Scan? Thanks Guys, you're the best. Your Friend, Stormbringer
Storm. First off I Do NOT try and seperate the contenders, I let the software tell me who the contenders are. For these Prep races I have been using best of the last 3 Total Energy Perceptor 1 (F3). I will only use a sprint line if the horse has absolutely NO route history. I will only use a turf line if the horse has NO Dirt History. The turf lines have projected higher over the years BUT I have had a number of horse hit the board underneath at HUGE prices and also win a race or 2 along the way at huge prices. Other than that I let the model dictate how I play
jms62 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 01:57 PM   #6
admin
Administrator
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
Get down

Hi Storm

On the primary line score screen I take out the bottom rated horses
or easier to show the horses with the highest line score

the smaller box screen shot is the Primary line score and highest number is the worse so I will take out the 9 with a 37 and the 8 with a 34
I will leave in the 6 because its in the to 5 Total energy
Attached Images
   
admin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 01:59 PM   #7
admin
Administrator
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
Now I have

hi again
Now I have 5 horses on BLBL
The 12 is right up there

Hope that I made sense

GS
Bill
Attached Images
 
admin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 02:11 PM   #8
Turf Speculator
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Quote:
Originally Posted by admin View Post
hi again
Now I have 5 horses on BLBL
The 12 is right up there

Hope that I made sense
GS
Bill
Interesting thread and thank you Jms and Admin for replying. Admin when you get a chance could you post that velocity tab I see with your final contenders shown?

Jms that was a very nice exacta your readouts pointed to yesterday. I saw it,wanted to reply but honey-do's got in the way. Hope you got a nice piece of the payoffs there.
  Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 02:19 PM   #9
admin
Administrator
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
For Turf Speculator

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turf Speculator View Post
Interesting thread and thank you Jms and Admin for replying. Admin when you get a chance could you post that velocity tab I see with your final contenders shown?

Jms that was a very nice exacta your readouts pointed to yesterday. I saw it,wanted to reply but honey-do's got in the way. Hope you got a nice piece of the payoffs there.

Here is the velocity screen adjusted lines
Attached Images
 
admin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2008, 02:47 PM   #10
stormbringer
Grade 1
 
stormbringer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 299
Much Thanks

Dear Guys- Thanks so much for all your help. I will go through your examples and it will help me greatly. It seems to me that every body is using RDSS more and more, but I keep seeing these old programs pop up.

To me, I need to use RDSS and not the old program. I like the ease of RDSS. I can actually see and learn where you get the winners from, as with Jim and Admin's example. An area should be made to teach people how to narrow races down. You guys have no problems, some people like me... haver more trouble narrowing down the entrants. I'm not looking for a short cut because as you know, horse racing is work and if you don't work at horseracing, you're not going to get anything out of it.

I spent the last week reading a pamphlet from the library that was very old on Factor Analysis. It had very old material in it. I learned a few things but it took a great deal of time for me to hand enter all of the races at Florida into Phase III. It is a great program, but I'm going back to RDSS now. Ya'll make things look too easy and it's really not. I definitely think that the admin should set up an area and you guys show more of how you narrow down fields and get winners, like maybe a beginners area or something like that, don't know, but something.

Again, thanks so much. I've printed all of your replies out and will re-handicap the race. Yours, Stornbringer
stormbringer is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Florida Derby RAMON201 Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion 0 03-28-2008 05:04 PM
Kentucky Derby Win Contenders RichieP Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 20 05-04-2007 07:40 PM
GP - Florida Derby Day jms62 Matchup Discussion 2 04-01-2007 12:36 AM
Florida derby day race 8 admin Selections 3 03-31-2007 11:04 PM
Florida Derby Houndog Selections 9 03-31-2007 01:09 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:51 PM.