Route race made up of mostly sprinters - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 03-05-2008, 07:27 AM

Let me put up the pp's for the field first. This ran late yesterday afternoon at Sunland Park in New Mexico.

Then I will show you a little "Hat helper" that brings the winner into clear focus as a lone early.

RichieP · 03-05-2008, 07:29 AM

pp's for remainder of field

RichieP · 03-05-2008, 07:42 AM

ok first pass though the field half the horses are sprinters
#1 - all sprints
#4 - only 1 try at route. all the rest sprints
#5 - only 3 races upon shipping here from better tracks are all sprints
#6 - all sprints

I also see that the couple of routers in the race also show sprints. Two ways to go at this race.

1) Make 2 matchups. Find the best sprinter. Find the best router. Match them up.

2) Treat the race as a sprint and matchup sprint lines. This can be done when the routers also have sprint lines that make them fast.Advantage of this is there is only ONE matchup that needs to be done. In THIS race the conditions exist to use this process I believe.

For ME it is always easier to work a race comparing apples to apples as the saying goes.

This what Hat taught me to do and now I pass it on to you for consideration.

RichieP · 03-05-2008, 07:44 AM

first step is I want to see if I can project a pace off a lead horse. Easy as pie here as the #1 from last race is early and FAST

RichieP · 03-05-2008, 07:59 AM

Now you can check the pp's listed earlier as a reference. Let's go through the field looking at the sprint lines of each horse.

#1 fast and last line - Early
#2 slow and OUT
#3 fast and line 2 - other than early
#4 last 3 races can't compete against slower paces and OUT
#5 line 2 against todays pace -can't compete and OUT
#6 fast and line 5 - other than early
#7 slow and OUT
#8 marginal at best. let's use last line and line 7.

Here now is a screen shot showing the above scenario and lines. I've now added the #1's 6f time on the projected pace tab just to show how fast this sucker potentially is.

couple of things now stand out when looking at the mix:
1) #1 is lone early and has the lead at the FASTEST 6f mark of all the lines shown

2) There is not even a horse running in the 2nd position at either the 1st or 2nd calls to challenge the #1.

Now the only question that needs answering is: Can the #1 get his "comfort zone" lead early on of 2 lengths?

Comparing sprints to sprints it seems most likely he will. Would you agree?

This is EXACTLY what Jim taught me to do and now it is passed on to YOU.

RichieP · 03-05-2008, 08:00 AM

The result chart shows the ass whooping up close and personal.

Bill Lyster · 03-05-2008, 11:00 AM

Richie:

With respect to point 2) of the above, in past race examples either you or Hat have commented on or used a projection feature that adjusts either position or lengths back based on running against faster times. Where I would stray from your analysis is in this area. Glitterboy runs to second call against a .6 sec or 3 length faster time; he appears (in this contender mix) to be the closest pursuer and the best presser of the contenders.

Questions: Can Glitterboy's faster pace make him disturb Ego's 2nd call comfort level (if you make pace adjustments)? Do you take Glitterboy's 6f time as the best he can do, even with a slower pace to run at? If you do not consider making pace/position adjustments for Glitterboy, why not?

Appreciate the example,

Bill

RichieP · 03-05-2008, 01:48 PM

Bill
here was my thought process.

The #1's last line - is 3rd at the break and MOVES right to the front at first fraction.

The #3's sprint line - is 3rd at the break and goes back a position to 4th at first fraction. I think after seeing this that the race will now be run on the #1's terms and pace. BUT now that race of the #3 was 2 ticks faster at 1st call. Let's look a little deeper at the 3.

In 3 races showing the 3 has pressed or fought with horses for the lead.
1) last line where he fought for the lead at first fraction in a route times in 23.3(5ths). Since I already "know" he ain't getting the lead over the #1 throw that race out.

2)line 4 at 8.5f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at the 2nd call.Fractions are 24-48.1 STOP. Right away this is way too SLOW for what will go down today.

3) line 5 at 8f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at 2nd call. Fractions 24.1 STOP. This whole race is an illusion if you will because that first fraction is insanely slow.

Hope some of this made sense Bill.

Hat laid this on me one day when we worked a race at Aqueduct one morning that was gonna be run later that day. He was heading to the simulcast and I told him I had a winner for him. It was very similar to this layout and I did all this fancy work with pace of race and altering positions etc.

Jim listened quietly and when I was done said "Rich someone has to get after that pacesetter before the 2nd call. If they leave him alone he's gone.Look at your horses pp's and show me where he can challenge". THIS is when he started bringing up the break positions and seeing what the horses do from there to the first call/fraction.

Turned out he was right. My horse never did mount a challenge and lost horribly to the "pacesetter" as Hat put it. The next day he taught me a little about that race type. That is what I have tried to show here
Richie

VoodooFan · 03-07-2008, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

The #1's last line - is 3rd at the break and MOVES right to the front at first fraction.

Thanks for the lesson Rich. Of course, I have some questions.
1) In the above quote, are you looking at what position and how a horse breaks to press or challenge for the lead?

2) What about habitually slow breakers who are Early and Early Pressers?

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

shows a move to engage and fight for the lead

3)This looks like new ammunition for you and us for spot plays. Do you feel you will be sharper with this added view of races?

4) Are you looking at ANY horse horse who regularly challenge for the lead at the 1st call / 2nd call , whether his position is 4th or 5th at the 1st call...as long as he challenges for the lead at one of those two calls?

5) Is a horse a fighter and /or challenger if he is 3rd or 4th position off by a neck or head, or is he simply fighting other Other-Than-Early horses and is not considered a challenger to the Early horse at the 1st two calls?

Very nice post.

VoodooFan

VoodooFan · 03-08-2008, 05:13 AM

I also noticed, Rich, when you confirmed THE Early horse that will have the lead, you always look and comment if there are no position 2 or 3 horses.

Does that make your spot play that much stronger when you see no position
2 or 3 horses?

Do you care what lengths the 2nd postion and 3rd position horses have in their past performance?

Looks like with this recent post, you are looking at how or if a position 2 and 3 will challenge the leader for the lead in either or both of the 1st two calls.

Thanks

VoodooFan

** When there are no horses in the 2nd position at the 1st or 2nd calls YES I do feel the early horse becomes that much stronger fwiw** - RichieP

03-08-2008, 05:13 AM	#10
VoodooFan True Disciple of Voodoo Join Date: May 2006 Location: EarthQuake country( cali , baby) Posts: 349	I also noticed, Rich, when you confirmed THE Early horse that will have the lead, you always look and comment if there are no position 2 or 3 horses. Does that make your spot play that much stronger when you see no position 2 or 3 horses? Do you care what lengths the 2nd postion and 3rd position horses have in their past performance? Looks like with this recent post, you are looking at how or if a position 2 and 3 will challenge the leader for the lead in either or both of the 1st two calls. Thanks VoodooFan When there are no horses in the 2nd position at the 1st or 2nd calls YES I do feel the early horse becomes that much stronger fwiw - RichieP Last edited by RichieP; 03-08-2008 at 08:17 AM.

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03-05-2008, 07:27 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Route race made up of mostly sprinters Let me put up the pp's for the field first. This ran late yesterday afternoon at Sunland Park in New Mexico. Then I will show you a little "Hat helper" that brings the winner into clear focus as a lone early. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-05-2008, 07:29 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	pp's for remainder of field Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-05-2008, 07:42 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	ok first pass though the field half the horses are sprinters #1 - all sprints #4 - only 1 try at route. all the rest sprints #5 - only 3 races upon shipping here from better tracks are all sprints #6 - all sprints I also see that the couple of routers in the race also show sprints. Two ways to go at this race. 1) Make 2 matchups. Find the best sprinter. Find the best router. Match them up. 2) Treat the race as a sprint and matchup sprint lines. This can be done when the routers also have sprint lines that make them fast.Advantage of this is there is only ONE matchup that needs to be done. In THIS race the conditions exist to use this process I believe. For ME it is always easier to work a race comparing apples to apples as the saying goes. This what Hat taught me to do and now I pass it on to you for consideration. __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-05-2008, 07:44 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	first step is I want to see if I can project a pace off a lead horse. Easy as pie here as the #1 from last race is early and FAST Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-05-2008, 07:59 AM	#5
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Now you can check the pp's listed earlier as a reference. Let's go through the field looking at the sprint lines of each horse. #1 fast and last line - Early #2 slow and OUT #3 fast and line 2 - other than early #4 last 3 races can't compete against slower paces and OUT #5 line 2 against todays pace -can't compete and OUT #6 fast and line 5 - other than early #7 slow and OUT #8 marginal at best. let's use last line and line 7. Here now is a screen shot showing the above scenario and lines. I've now added the #1's 6f time on the projected pace tab just to show how fast this sucker potentially is. couple of things now stand out when looking at the mix: 1) #1 is lone early and has the lead at the FASTEST 6f mark of all the lines shown 2) There is not even a horse running in the 2nd position at either the 1st or 2nd calls to challenge the #1. Now the only question that needs answering is: Can the #1 get his "comfort zone" lead early on of 2 lengths? Comparing sprints to sprints it seems most likely he will. Would you agree? This is EXACTLY what Jim taught me to do and now it is passed on to YOU. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-05-2008, 08:00 AM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	The result chart shows the ass whooping up close and personal. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-05-2008, 11:00 AM	#7
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Richie: With respect to point 2) of the above, in past race examples either you or Hat have commented on or used a projection feature that adjusts either position or lengths back based on running against faster times. Where I would stray from your analysis is in this area. Glitterboy runs to second call against a .6 sec or 3 length faster time; he appears (in this contender mix) to be the closest pursuer and the best presser of the contenders. Questions: Can Glitterboy's faster pace make him disturb Ego's 2nd call comfort level (if you make pace adjustments)? Do you take Glitterboy's 6f time as the best he can do, even with a slower pace to run at? If you do not consider making pace/position adjustments for Glitterboy, why not? Appreciate the example, Bill

03-05-2008, 01:48 PM	#8
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Bill here was my thought process. The #1's last line - is 3rd at the break and MOVES right to the front at first fraction. The #3's sprint line - is 3rd at the break and goes back a position to 4th at first fraction. I think after seeing this that the race will now be run on the #1's terms and pace. BUT now that race of the #3 was 2 ticks faster at 1st call. Let's look a little deeper at the 3. In 3 races showing the 3 has pressed or fought with horses for the lead. 1) last line where he fought for the lead at first fraction in a route times in 23.3(5ths). Since I already "know" he ain't getting the lead over the #1 throw that race out. 2)line 4 at 8.5f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at the 2nd call.Fractions are 24-48.1 STOP. Right away this is way too SLOW for what will go down today. 3) line 5 at 8f shows a move to engage and fight for the lead at 2nd call. Fractions 24.1 STOP. This whole race is an illusion if you will because that first fraction is insanely slow. Hope some of this made sense Bill. Hat laid this on me one day when we worked a race at Aqueduct one morning that was gonna be run later that day. He was heading to the simulcast and I told him I had a winner for him. It was very similar to this layout and I did all this fancy work with pace of race and altering positions etc. Jim listened quietly and when I was done said "Rich someone has to get after that pacesetter before the 2nd call. If they leave him alone he's gone.Look at your horses pp's and show me where he can challenge". THIS is when he started bringing up the break positions and seeing what the horses do from there to the first call/fraction. Turned out he was right. My horse never did mount a challenge and lost horribly to the "pacesetter" as Hat put it. The next day he taught me a little about that race type. That is what I have tried to show here Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"