Spot Play # 4 - Marathon Distance Races at 10f and Longer

[20towin]

The Matchup as I am beginning to realize is an evolving Method , the more it is worked, the more it grows to meet different situations. I would bet that Mr. Bradshaw devolted years and years to come up with this approach.This method was not developed over night.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Richie:

re: use of mile times.

In RDSS we can see the mile call in all races at or over 9f. So, do we use the mile time directly from this race .

Bill

YES.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Richie:

re: use of mile times.

In RDSS we can see the mile call in all races at or over 9f. So, do we use the mile time directly from this race and note the positioning for this call or do we back off 6.2 seconds per furlong from the final time, while still using the position info?

In yesterday's Big Cap, Boboman was coming off a 10f turf race and the answer you'd get would vary depending on which of the two options used. Bill

Bill
Use the mile "backup" time as the reference point.
Richie

[Bill Lyster]

How I saw these competitors using the marathon spot play:

2 dyna L3 - 1:35.3, 5th 2 off
3 Arch L1 - 1:35.5, 4th, 1.6 off (8.5 f finish)
4 Optimi L4 - 1:35.9, 1st by 3 in a mile race
5 Possib L3 - 1:35.7, 1st by 2 (8.5f finish)
6 Isabel L5 - 1:35.6, 4th by 3
7 May N L1 - 1:35.3, 5th by 1.7
8 Rain S L 2 - 1:35.3, 6th by 7.1

When you said to analyze by pace of race did you mean the rest of the pace before the mile time or just the mile pace?

I see the 5 trying to lead by 2, but can't. The 4 tries to lead by 3 and can't, leaving the 3 closest positionally to a pace that is arguably not the fastest of the remaining horses. How is this properly handicapped?

Thanks,

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

The winner here is 5, Royal. The only two race choices are both 12f.

Backing off line 2, I get 1:37.5, 2nd by 3.5 lengths

The 2 at 1:35.5, 2nd by a head and the 7 at 1:35.4, 1st by 1 appear to have significant pace and positional advantages. How is this race handicapped correctly using this spot play?

Bill

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

The winner here is 5, Royal. The only two race choices are both 12f.

Backing off line 2, I get 1:37.5, 2nd by 3.5 lengths

The 2 at 1:35.5, 2nd by a head and the 7 at 1:35.4, 1st by 1 appear to have significant pace and positional advantages. How is this race handicapped correctly using this spot play?

Bill

Bill

here is my screenshot on the 9th race as I worked it ok?

I absolutely LOVED the #1 horse and when he was 2/1 I bet him. He lost as the #5 won who in a million years I can not bet using this method.

Still 1 for 2 on the day here with a $17.00 winner works out ok.

Go back and check that 5th Bill. LOOK at pace of race on the 2md line back on the winning 3 horse Arch. Subtract 6.2 seconds in fifths or 6.4 in tenths from the final time and then look at the POSITIONING and pace of race for THAT line.

There is NOTHING that can even come close to touching that horse according to Jim's method.

Here is my workup for the 9th race that I lost on ok?

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

Just curious. Are there any limitations or preconditions to the marathon spot play? I'm assuming that a horse who had never gone farther than 8f might be suspect at 10f or more. A really quick one turn mile time might give too much credit to such a horse.

I'm not looking to complicate matters, just understand them in context a little better.

Bill