Matchup Challenge Mar 7/8 by Capcondo

[Capcondo]

GG Race #5 Saturday

When I initially looked at this race, I saw 3 matching earlies which is why I put it up. The 1,2, and 5 are the matching earlies. I think it will go around a 24.1 or 24.2.

This leaves the 3, 4, and 6. The 4 has one good race 3 back. The other races put him in the rear of the field. He's out. My contenders are the 3 and the 6. In the last race which is admittedly a slow tandem, the 3 was in front of the 6.

Off the tandem, the 3 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

[Seven Furlongs]

For Golden Gate 5, here is, in a very broad way, my thinking about the race.

The 9/5 morning line favourite, the 2 horse Intermix, is being asked to win a third consecutive race while moving up in class. Ellen Jackson is %33 off the claim with a win, but, the sample size is small at only 6 such occasions. I think the horse is vulnerable because at the 5k claiming level, I don't think the horse can hold that form over three races, though weirder things have happened.

So, for me, the question is if it goes early or not. The 1 horse has been building a nice racing foundation in its workouts as it has progressively increased its furlongs. The problem is that it last raced in August and it is going up against the 2 horse. If the 2 horse wasn't in the race, I would bet him, but, since he is and they will both run themselves ragged, I think it will go OTE.

My pick would be the 5 horse. It has good form, nice workout in the last month, and it is dropping in class and is picking up Russell the Muscle. My only concern is that the trainer is okay, not great, with 1st starts with a horse.

So, to cut to the quick, I bet the 5 horse Win and Place in Saturday's Golden Gate Race.

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by Ryan.p.coli

Missed you guys... here's my view

Hi Ryan,

Thanks for your contribution. As the last horse mentioned in your post I see you want 6 to win? If not please clarify. Not reading scenarios. You should end with definitive picks.

Pook

[The Pook]

GG Race 5

[mowens33]

Cigar and Seven Furlongs nice call!

[The Pook]

Oaklawn Race 7

5 is scratched

[The Pook]

Oaklawn Race 7

[cigar]

Ote

[Seven Furlongs]

I'm not crazy about this Oaklawn race. Lots of issues you have to deal with. There are a lot of class dropping horses and a few horses coming off of layoffs, so this race isn't that straight forward.

Because the horses are in various states of form, I don't think the race will play to type. I'm thinking possibly somewhat early, though more along the lines of an early presser rather than a one-dimensional speed ball.

If I were to go for a presser, I would pick the 3 but I think it's form is maybe a bit questionable. I'm not familiar with Oaklawn Park so I don't know what passes for a fit horse there.

Of the two early-presser type horses I'm left with the 4 and the 9. Both show good form, are racing their 3rd race off a layoff, and don't have any age disadvantages to speak of. Off of class alone, the 9 horse's races at Del Mar make this a better horse on paper, which would explain why it is the morning line favourite, but, Bank Account's account isn't as full as it used to be. Ron Moquette is %7 off the claim, so there might be a reason to bet against the 9.

As for the 4, I like that it has run 12 furlongs in the last month in the morning and that it is dropping in class. I just hope Borel gets the horse to rate, because if it tries to wire the field I think it is screwed.

I do the match-up based on 1st fraction and final time. It's not going to run this fast, but I used 22 4/5 and 1:10 as my time to match all other contenders.

To sum up, I pick the 4 horse just for win only.

[Capcondo]

I agree with seven furlongs. This is not an easy race and I'm the one who put it up!

I just don't like any of the OTE horses so I'm looking for an early horse who has run OTE. That puts me on the 4. Fighting through 22.1 45.4 58.4, he has a faster half and stretch than these others and the bottom race in the form shows he can run OTE.

The 4 is my choice.

Tim