E% to Running Styles

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Hi, I've been searching for the post about the E% in-relation to what running styles they are. The old Modern Pace Handicapping book has the older formula that shows the E% to the running styles, which I attached below as an example. I was wondering if anyone had the updated one to today's current E% calculation? Thank you!

[winning]

All of Dr. Sartin's Advance programs use % Median which replaces %Early.
Formula for % Median is (F1 + F2) / (F1 + F2 + F3).

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Originally Posted by winning

All of Dr. Sartin's Advance programs use % Median which replaces %Early.
Formula for % Median is (F1 + F2) / (F1 + F2 + F3).

That is what I currently use, but had no idea it is now called "median," so thank you for that. I should rephrase my question if there is a median percentage to running style chart out there.

[Mitch44]

Here you go Parakeet:

69% and over is Early

68.40 to 69% is Early Presser

67.60 to 68.39 % is Sustained Presser

Under 67.59 to 67.01 % is Sustained

Under 67.00% is Late ( you'll see this one in very long routes, some turf races and in one run closers)

You can also get these by finding the break point within RDSS for the % Med. , not the visual ESP.

Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

Thanks for answering that Mitch! It's close enough to the actual break-points RDSS uses that the differences don't matter. But for the record, here they are:

at or over 69.2 = E (Early), otherwise
at or over 68.7 = EP (Early Presser), otherwise
at or over 68.2 = P (Presser), otherwise
at or over 67.75 = SP (Sustained Presser), otherwise
at or over 67.0 = S (Sustained), otherwise
=L (Late)

Really, I don't think small differences of %Median too matter much (e.g. 69.0 could be Early or Early Presser, whatever). A model of %Median ranges by distance group/track can be useful in some circumstances for eliminating horses (or subjecting them to extra critique) who do not typically demonstrate the modeled energy distribution profile.


Ted

[Mitch44]

I agree Ted on the small differences. Your postings are easier than finding the break points within RDSS.

Mine came from Sartin in an article he penned and was printed in Turf Monthly in Jan. 1994, titled;" On the Lead Versus Early Speed." The only place I ever seen it disclosed. I imagine he may have tweaked it over time. I wasn't smart enough back than to find the break point for each ESP with his other programs, however he was always evolving.

Mitch44

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Here you go Parakeet:

69% and over is Early

68.40 to 69% is Early Presser

67.60 to 68.39 % is Sustained Presser

Under 67.59 to 67.01 % is Sustained

Under 67.00% is Late ( you'll see this one in very long routes, some turf races and in one run closers)

You can also get these by finding the break point within RDSS for the % Med. , not the visual ESP.

Mitch44

Thank you, Mitch and Ted. You have both helped me tremendously with your data.

I was looking at the overall performance of this year's 3-year-old colts. I am a bit surprised that they are a bit on the lower end of the spectrum in-respect of their running style to median output. For example, I have Rock Your World, who won the Santa Anita Derby, he did it in gate-to-wire fashion. So on other handicapping venues, that would label him as an "E", right? My calculation shows he won it at a 68.4% median, which designates him as either an EP or P according to either one of your charts. His previous two races were a 68.2% and a 67.7%. So he is truly not a front runner, just more or less took advantage of a Grade One race void of any actual legit early speed horses. Am I right in assuming this?

[Lt1]

There are many times when visual wtw winners distribute their energy other then early. Doc always mentioned this at seminars. Glen Connelly pointed out that Maryland tracks display this trend.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Parakeet;

There is a distinct difference between the visual and % MED ESP. The % MED is much more accurate. Horses that get the lead tend to loaf on the lead unless challenged by another horse or by the closers. They(especially) the really good one's only due what is necessary to win that race or particular Match UP.

Also this time of the year their trying to rate or slow these horses down in order to stretch them out to get the Derby distance. Some of then refuse and burn themselves out as the distances increase. Others are more trackable and will settle and make their runs in the stretch.

Early horses with high % Med of 70% seldom win unless up against other's who also run that way. They burn themselves out and run into a brick wall as their gutted( sharp deceleration). These types are also more efficient at shorter distances such as 5F or 5.5 F.

Many horses can't win against certain Pace of the Race(POR) scenarios, energy used up early is unavailable late. The best horses are those that can overcome the POR. The better the horse the higher its Total Energy and it has reserve energy to overcome the POR to include a fast POR.

Understanding % Med helps to eliminate horses too fast and also too late(one run closers) in certain matchups. % Med can also be used to determine if a horse can stretch out or if their too fast to do that.

Certain tracks favor a particular % Med such as Early or even Sustained. Its not unusual for a track to favor E in sprints and Sustained in routes. Smart trainers and owners are well aware of this, but not by % Med which is more accurate. They will ship horses to tracks that favor their horses style. I.e. if an E horse they'll send it to MTH or SA. If too early to win at those track(70%) they'll send to a track that cards a lot of 5 F or 5.5 F races, the shorter distances allows them to carry their speed more to the wire. That last FR at Major tracks of 2F in sprints is just too much with their high deceleration and high % Med to get up. Note: some connection's never figure this out and keep running a horse at a distance and surface where it can't win. We have tools such as % Med where we know their horse better than they do and can detect if its properly placed, which helps to eliminate contenders.

As these races for 3 yr. old's increase to 9F it starts to separate horses that are just too early to get the distance and win.

Bottom line is most don't understand % Med and ignore it, today's players are into instant gratification. Put them in the computer and let it rip.

In RDSS sorting your contenders by ESP(% MED ) NOT the VISUAL ESP can help decipher a race and determine the best E type(E,Ep & P) or best S Type. This brings much more clarity to Factors, your analysis and final decision making..

Ted said he would put a button in the new program to sort ESP by running styles, not sure if that has been done yet.

Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

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