Straight talk from " The Hat" - "Secret" to upping WIN % by 10 points - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 10-09-2006, 11:33 PM

First off I have run this by Jim and have his ok to post this thread.

Ok a little backround is needed first.

I have been learning the matchup from Jim for appx 5 months. Learning it from the CREATOR only. I will say there are 2 key things that MUST be done to have ANY chance to actually become a successful " Matcher".

1) Completely IGNORE trainer/jockey/class/layoffs/trackbias. PERIOD.

2) MUST use the horse's ENTIRE past performances shown REGARDLESS of how long ago some of the pacelines might be. This enables us to:
a) match lines and overcome any track variant and shipper/ track to track issues.
b) identify strongly WINNING running styles and the POSITION at the FIRST call a horse can WIN from.

I posted the above because even doing this I was stuck in a win % range around 25-28% betting 1 horse for over 2 months. Jim kept telling me I should be MUCH higher. He was being totally sincere man. He would keep doing races with me on the phone. He would tell me "something is holding you back Rich. We will find it".

10 days ago to be EXACT he found it and laid it out for me STERNLY. Very much a talking to for sure. NO nice-nice talk whatsoever.

This is EXACTLY what he told me. EXACTLY word for word.

1) " Rich I need you to HIDE the morning line odds when you work a race, I do NOT want you to see them. You have been a value better for a decade and that **** is ingrained in you whether or not you realize it. I have to break you of that and hiding the morning line is how to do it. When I go to the track and use the Form I NEVER see the ml. JUST the HORSE Rich. NOTHING else. Trust me on this ok?"

- since then I HIDE the ml odds on my pp's and for the last 10 days have NO clue on the ml of the horse's. Just matching HORSES with NO expectation of potential payoff.

2) " Rich I want you to ONLY bet races where you have the field narrowed to ONE horse you KNOW is going to win. What I mean is that even if the horse doesn't win you KNOW that was the horse and you would bet him again. This also keeps you from going back and second guessing yourself after a losing race. This is VITAL to matching because INTUITION is a HUGE part of matching MY way and there is no room for second guessing here".

Jim continues - "So when you come to a race and you have the race down to 2 horses and can not DEFINITIVELY say that one will beat the other you MUST - PASS THE RACE. I only want you betting races where you have the field narrowed to ONE horse Rich. Leave the others alone and FOCUS on these races. SPOT PLAY them only."

I am betting at 3/2 odds and higher. No exotics of ANY kind for ME. Guys like Charlie and Pino are doing good with the exotics which is terrific.

Jim also said that for TWO horse bettors narrowing a field to 2 is GREAT as the win bets are self evident. When the TWO horse bettor reduces to three then the " guessing" on whom to play rears its head again and he suggests PASSING is something to consider strongly.

In 10 days the change in my play and % is fantastic man. I am a totally different and better Matcher. Read the thread topic again. I am being dead serious in what I wrote ok? DEAD SERIOUS.

I honestly do not know how Jim sees things and knows what will help but he does. He also gives of his time in a big way.

I post this hoping it will help someone the way it helped me. Just trying to pass along some of Jim's teachings to me ok?

all the best and remember
" It's just a dang horse race" - Jim " The Hat" Bradshaw

stay cool
Richie

xtb · 10-10-2006, 12:24 AM

Richie, is 2b a hard and fast rule? Are running styles only to be determined from wins? Thanks.

RichieP · 10-10-2006, 03:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xtb

Richie, is 2b a hard and fast rule? Are running styles only to be determined from wins? Thanks.

Xtb,

Running styles are taken from winning races or races where the horse ran it's best.

Here is a screenshot of a winner last night at Mnr. His style is Sustained/Presser off the last 2 5.5f races which is today's distance.

Welcome to the board!
Richie

xtb · 10-10-2006, 11:23 AM

Thanks Richie!

Jonathan Steele · 10-10-2006, 05:45 PM

Thanks much for relaying the info, Richie!

Jon

RichieP · 10-10-2006, 07:14 PM

I got a nice email asking if the whole post was "needed" to Match horses.

NO. So for clarity:

These 2 things ARE required to work the Matchup Jim's way.

RichieP · 10-10-2006, 07:18 PM

This part was Jim's instruction for ME after seeing MY play and working of races. It is NOT essential or required to match Jim's way.

IF someone is SERIOUS about learning the Matchup and HAS been value betting ( 1 or 2 horses) for a long period of time the way I was this IS something that you should at least seriously CONSIDER.

Rich

Rxlawyer · 10-14-2006, 06:42 AM

Welcome Xtb ! Gary

xtb · 10-14-2006, 05:02 PM

Thanks Gary, this looks like a great site with a lot of very sharp members!

admin · 10-14-2006, 07:17 PM

Thank You Xtb
welcome to our group

GS
Bill

10-09-2006, 11:33 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Straight talk from " The Hat" - "Secret" to upping WIN % by 10 points First off I have run this by Jim and have his ok to post this thread. Ok a little backround is needed first. I have been learning the matchup from Jim for appx 5 months. Learning it from the CREATOR only. I will say there are 2 key things that MUST be done to have ANY chance to actually become a successful " Matcher". 1) Completely IGNORE trainer/jockey/class/layoffs/trackbias. PERIOD. 2) MUST use the horse's ENTIRE past performances shown REGARDLESS of how long ago some of the pacelines might be. This enables us to: a) match lines and overcome any track variant and shipper/ track to track issues. b) identify strongly WINNING running styles and the POSITION at the FIRST call a horse can WIN from. I posted the above because even doing this I was stuck in a win % range around 25-28% betting 1 horse for over 2 months. Jim kept telling me I should be MUCH higher. He was being totally sincere man. He would keep doing races with me on the phone. He would tell me "something is holding you back Rich. We will find it". 10 days ago to be EXACT he found it and laid it out for me STERNLY. Very much a talking to for sure. NO nice-nice talk whatsoever. This is EXACTLY what he told me. EXACTLY word for word. 1) " Rich I need you to HIDE the morning line odds when you work a race, I do NOT want you to see them. You have been a value better for a decade and that **** is ingrained in you whether or not you realize it. I have to break you of that and hiding the morning line is how to do it. When I go to the track and use the Form I NEVER see the ml. JUST the HORSE Rich. NOTHING else. Trust me on this ok?" - since then I HIDE the ml odds on my pp's and for the last 10 days have NO clue on the ml of the horse's. Just matching HORSES with NO expectation of potential payoff. 2) " Rich I want you to ONLY bet races where you have the field narrowed to ONE horse you KNOW is going to win. What I mean is that even if the horse doesn't win you KNOW that was the horse and you would bet him again. This also keeps you from going back and second guessing yourself after a losing race. This is VITAL to matching because INTUITION is a HUGE part of matching MY way and there is no room for second guessing here". Jim continues - "So when you come to a race and you have the race down to 2 horses and can not DEFINITIVELY say that one will beat the other you MUST - PASS THE RACE. I only want you betting races where you have the field narrowed to ONE horse Rich. Leave the others alone and FOCUS on these races. SPOT PLAY them only." I am betting at 3/2 odds and higher. No exotics of ANY kind for ME. Guys like Charlie and Pino are doing good with the exotics which is terrific. Jim also said that for TWO horse bettors narrowing a field to 2 is GREAT as the win bets are self evident. When the TWO horse bettor reduces to three then the " guessing" on whom to play rears its head again and he suggests PASSING is something to consider strongly. In 10 days the change in my play and % is fantastic man. I am a totally different and better Matcher. Read the thread topic again. I am being dead serious in what I wrote ok? DEAD SERIOUS. I honestly do not know how Jim sees things and knows what will help but he does. He also gives of his time in a big way. I post this hoping it will help someone the way it helped me. Just trying to pass along some of Jim's teachings to me ok? all the best and remember " It's just a dang horse race" - Jim " The Hat" Bradshaw stay cool Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 10-09-2006 at 11:45 PM.

10-10-2006, 07:14 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	I got a nice email asking if the whole post was "needed" to Match horses. NO. So for clarity: These 2 things ARE required to work the Matchup Jim's way. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-10-2006, 07:18 PM	#7
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Clarity con't This part was Jim's instruction for ME after seeing MY play and working of races. It is NOT essential or required to match Jim's way. IF someone is SERIOUS about learning the Matchup and HAS been value betting ( 1 or 2 horses) for a long period of time the way I was this IS something that you should at least seriously CONSIDER. Rich Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 10-10-2006 at 07:23 PM.

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10-10-2006, 12:24 AM	#2
xtb Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Western NY Posts: 111	Richie, is 2b a hard and fast rule? Are running styles only to be determined from wins? Thanks.

10-10-2006, 11:23 AM	#4
xtb Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Western NY Posts: 111	Thanks Richie!

10-10-2006, 05:45 PM	#5
Jonathan Steele Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: New Jersey, USA Posts: 471	Thanks much for relaying the info, Richie! Jon

10-14-2006, 06:42 AM	#8
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Welcome Xtb ! Gary

10-14-2006, 05:02 PM	#9
xtb Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Western NY Posts: 111	Thanks Gary, this looks like a great site with a lot of very sharp members!

10-14-2006, 07:17 PM	#10
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Thank You Xtb welcome to our group GS Bill