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Hat Check - How Can We Help You? Jim 'The Hat' Bradshaw - Learn The Matchup |
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03-29-2007, 07:58 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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The Result Chart of the race.
Jim's comments to follow
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
03-30-2007, 11:12 AM | #12 |
Grade 2
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 86
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Other Than Early
The second race at Fair Grounds is a race I won. I decided the race was a good race to have Rich work. I have taught Rich that there are only two running styles. These style are Early, and other than Early, which makes it rather easy to determine how the race will "set up." The first step is to decide the horse that will take the lead in the first quarter mile. The nine horse Smile Away can win only if he can go "wire to wire", and will have the lead in today’s race at 21.4. Now, can he go wire to wire today? The answer is no, because the one horse Tricky Devil has also run a 21.4 and also needs to go "wire to wire." So the race will run, other than early. Now, which horse is closer to today’s pace? The two horse Secure Line has won from the second position in a 21.3, from the fifth position and from the third position. Secure Line is a great selection to win in a race that will run other than early. This is the procedure Rich used to match the race. Great job "Match Up Guy." |
03-31-2007, 09:59 AM | #13 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
1) I ALWAYS scroll the horses and locate the fastest pace from last race. Here that belongs to the 2 and 5. POSITIONALLY the #2 is much closer and shows in his pp's he can win from the following positions at the FIRST call 2nd 3rd - twice 5th ok IF this race goes "Other than early" THIS is my horse. 2) Now I look for the early pacesetter. I see the #1 is early at 1st call and shows on the lead times 21.4 - needs OPEN lead 22.0 - needs OPEN lead 21.4 - needs OPEN lead in none of those races did he FIGHT and win. He needs an OPEN lead to win. I scroll and get to the #9 and see he is also early at the first call. I see 21.4 - gets beat but has OPEN lead 22.0 - wins but has OPEN lead 21.1 - abberant race Now I LOOKED and saw they cancel one another out so now I shift my focus to the winner being "other than early" and from the work I FIRST did when opening the race described above the horse to BET assuming odds are ok is staring me right in the puss. They don't all work out this way BUT they do enough times to show a REPEATING pattern we can have a bit of confidence in. I can NOT be afraid to lose a race betting only one horse Jeff. Otherwise NONE of this works. As long as I bet races where the BET is so CLEAR that even when the horse loses I KNOW I made the right bet. Hope this answered your questions Jeff Richie
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 09-17-2008 at 11:17 AM. |
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