Tandems & using first fraction for decision making in routes

[RichieP]

I want to show you a race that I worked for Pino yesterday afternoon on the phone. It was the 2nd race from Mountaineer and I worked it with him 5 hours before the race ran.

This is a GREAT race because I showed him the use of both tandems and using the first FRACTION in route races to make decisions on contenders and then wager decisions.

The "Great" part is that 5 hours later the race runs and the 7/2 winner and cold 80 dollar plus exacta comes in EXACTLY as it should with the only 2 horses who were the TRUE contenders for the win.

Few minutes later an email shows up saying:
" I'll be damned how bout that!"

I did not wager the race and told him so in the afternoon because I am having MAJOR back problems and can't sit comfortably.

I'll post full pp's and workup later today. That was fun Pino. I hope you lined your pockets paisan
Ciao
Richie

[RichieP]

Tandems for the race
pp's for the 1
pp's for the 2
pp's for the 3
pp's for the 4

[RichieP]

pp's for the 5-6-7-8-9

[RichieP]

pp's of the 10 and the result chart of the race

[RichieP]

First step is identifying the race shape. Early or other than early.

We have the 10 horse running early off last line at:
24.4-49.4-114.3 ( I am converting the 10ths shown to 5ths ok?)
Only other winning race he also went gate to wire so this guy needs the lead and in BOTH cases needed a 1 and 1/2 length lead at first fraction to get the job done.

2 questions need to be answered:
1) can he get that lead today
2) is he fast enough to win if he gets it
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I thought the 3 was going to go based on line 2. I saw he got killed in last race tandem with the 10. Soon as I said that Pino said the race should run other than early. Right on the money.

*Note* even if you feel the 3 is not going early the 10 still is nowhere near fast enough to win as you will see.

so with this 1st step we have
1) Race shape for the winner - other than early
2) quick eliminations of the 3 and 10 from further consideration

[RichieP]

Second step is go through the field quickly and eliminate horses. I will do exactly what I did with Pino on the phone.

1 horse - destroyed by the 2 in last race tandem. OUT

2 horse - will reverse tandem finish with the 10 today because the 10 is already gone. has beaten the 1,3,8 so they are all out.Last was 1st over track and shows some very strong lines from Cby a faster surface than Mnr. IN

3 horse - eliminated earlier in step 1. OUT

4 horse - only 1 race here at Mnr and that was sprint. Comes from Hollywood which is fast track surface. Runs other than early. IN

5 horse - shows win in last in kind of slow time. we will keep him and evaluate line 6 for him against the others. IN

6 horse - shows 2 routes out of 10 races. 3 back against VERY fast pace of race where he rallied well and line TEN where he runs very well. Keep him and we will do some "funny stuff' or "voodoo" as I told Pino. IN

7 horse - slow horse. OUT

8 horse - slow horse. OUT

9 horse - slow horse. OUT

10 horse - eliminated in step 1 ( race shape).OUT

[RichieP]

*Hat helper* - " When matching up horses from strange/unknown/faster tracks go all the way to the LEFT on the past performance line and match em based on the first fraction Rich" - The Hat
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Ok here is a "picture" of our 4 contenders. I want you to do 2 things with it please.

1) Matchup the 2 Mnr horses (5 and 6) and eliminate 1.

2) Matchup the 2 "strangers" (2 and 4). Keep the 1 that is going to be ahead of the other at the FIRST FRACTION. Forget everything else man. Eliminate 1.

Relax and look at the picture. Don't have to post. Just WORK the "picture" as described above.

Then our crowded picture of 4 will be reduced to 2.

[shrink1]

Richie,
Thanks for your great examples. It was a tremendous help for me to get a better understanding of this concept.
Ira

[RichieP]

Ira
Glad this is helping.

ok looking at the previous screen shot or "picture" as Jim has taught me to call it:

1) Matching the "strangers" 2 and 4 we can see that at the farthest LEFT on the pp line the 2 is without question ahead of the 4 horse. So we will accept Jim's teaching and accept the 2 and toss the 4.

2) Matching the 5 and 6 we see the 6 clearly is both ahead of and is faster than the 5. We accept the 6 and toss the 5.

Final 2 true win contenders are the 2 and 6.

updated screen shot

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

ok looking at the previous screen shot or "picture" as Jim has taught me to call it:

1) Matching the "strangers" 2 and 4 we can see that at the farthest LEFT on the pp line the 2 is without question ahead of the 4 horse. So we will accept Jim's teaching and accept the 2 and toss the 4.

2) Matching the 5 and 6 we see the 6 clearly is both ahead of and is faster than the 5. We accept the 6 and toss the 5.

Final 2 true win contenders are the 2 and 6.

When you are comparing "other than early " horses like this , are you looking
at distances comparable to today's , like , if the line is 8.5 and today is 8.0 ,
are you looking and stopping at the 8.0 mark and see if he is 1st, 2nd or 3rd ?

Also , to find who will be ahead of the other, are you looking for the horse who is closest to the fastest 1st fraction who finished competively at a distance comparable to today ? Thanks Rich, this lesson is an eye opener.

VoodooFan