Tandems & using first fraction for decision making in routes

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

Also , to find who will be ahead of the other, are you looking for the horse who is closest to the fastest 1st fraction who finished competively at a distance comparable to today ?
VoodooFan

I read everything you posted in the post.Let me show you EXACTLY how Jim teaches me.

Here are the 2 "strangers" (shippers from unknown/fast tracks).

Looking as far left on the pp line as you can and focusing on pace of race and position can you see that the 2 is ahead of the 4? Do you understand what I am saying?

Let me know please.

[VoodooFan]

Yes, the 4 positions are 7th and 10th running at 23.7-24.

The 2 positions are 3rd twice, 5th and 7th running at 22.6 - 23.6.

The 2 is definately ahead of the 4. Good lesson MatchUp Guy.

The way you keep pouring on the steam, are you gonna have anything
left for the MatchUp Newsletter ? Whatever happens, it's ALL good stuff.

VoodooFan

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

Yes, the 4 positions are 7th and 10th running at 23.7-24.
The 2 positions are 3rd twice, 5th and 7th running at 22.6 - 23.6.The 2 is definitely ahead of the 4.
VoodooFan

See what you just wrote above? THAT is EXACTLY what you need to do. You understand and worked the "picture".

Listen the term "picture" is NOW being introduced for a reason ok? This is once again straight from the Hat's teaching. Please bear with me as this all has a purpose.

For now just begin thinking of this definition of a "picture":
A stacking or collecting of pacelines on a particular horse that when BLENDED together shows what the horse is capable of doing and from WHERE positionally.

Good job Voodoo
Richie

[RichieP]

This race just ran at Charlestown bout 30 minutes ago. I gave Jim and my lady friend the horse that won before it ran and told both i just had a feeling man.

The horse won and paid 16 beans and I had my 20 spot on it.

Jim just TOLD me to post the race and then explain WHY I picked a horse to reverse a TANDEM where he had been beaten by almost 6 lengths.Also asked me to post my wager from Brisbet. So I am doing that now.

He challenged me to EXPLAIN why this horse was worth such a significant wager (for ME).

He told me to "show them Rich what you did. That's the matchup". I will post the full pp's tomorrow and my workup and thoughts.

Screenshots:
1) my final "look" at the race
2) winning wager ticket from Brisbet.
3) Tandems showing the 2 beating the 4 by almost 6 lengths
4) Result chart

[RichieP]

pp's for the 1-2-3-4-5

[RichieP]

horse's 6-7-8-9-10

[RichieP]

Step 1:
I scrolled the race and saw that there were only 2 horses that were early. 4 and 8. I used the 4's line from 2 back to proj pace that you see in the box on top of each screen.

If you notice ALL the races I have posted here NONE of them has a proj pace been carried all the way to the finish time. NONE of them. This is how I was taught from day 1 by Jim.

Ok now let's start eliminating horses. We will accept as contenders only horses who have shown the ability to run a good race against both our 1st and 2c.

Once again my trusted friend the "COLORS" helps knock this out quickly. Here we go.

Horse 1 - lines 1,2,3,9 all "light up". ALL are horror shows - OUT
Horse 2 - Our tandem winner shows line 2 - IN
Horse 3 - Nothing. Let's not try to make a slow ass horse fast - OUT
Horse 4 - Our Proj pace guy shows line 2 "lit up" - IN
Horse 5 - line 9 shows. Last 2 lines clearly show a different slow horse - OUT
Horse 6 - line 3 shows. Horror show - OUT
Horse 7 - Nothing - OUT
Horse 8 - Used the last 2 lines that lit. This includes his power line - IN
Horse 9 - Nothing - OUT
Horse 10- lines 6,7,9 show. Horror show - OUT

Contenders - 2-4-8

screenshot

[RichieP]

Step 2:Evaluating the early matchup.

First thing that hit me was seeing the 8 needed a 2 and a 1/2 length lead to WIN at the first fraction.Once again proper evaluation starts with the data to the furthest LEFT on the past performance line.

Immediately I threw the 8 out for the WIN when I saw the 4's 1st fraction time and FIGHTING position. He is NOT letting that 8 get away man.

[RichieP]

Step 3

2 things came in my head quickly when i reduced to the 4 and 2.

1) The POWER MOVE on the 4 from 1c to 2c. After fighting he EXPLODES to a 5 length lead at 2c. So he buries his early competition (reminds me of him burying the 8 TODAY)then opens up like the beast he is.

2) THIS is the deciding one for ME that says "pull the trigger and fire".
I see the SECOND FIGHT at the stretch call of the 4's race and realize that the horse who fought with the 4 at that point is NOT in TODAY'S race. I also see at THAT point of the 2nd fight the 2 is still almost 3 lengths back of the 4.

The tandem race TWO horses ganged up on the 4 and fought him both early and late in the race.

TODAY there will be only ONE fight and that will be early on with the 8. The 4 will not let him get away,will FIGHT his ass and will have plenty of energy left to reverse the tandem finish with the 2 and win TODAYS race.

screenshots:
1) final 2 win contenders
2) Focused intensity
Richie

[emilio840]

Richie dosn't Line 7 on the #8 shows that he is much faster than the #4 horse. He could do the first quater in 22.4 and the half in 46 and change. And there is also a few more lines where the #8 is faster at the first 2 calls.

emilio