Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Hat Check - How Can We Help You?
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Hat Check - How Can We Help You? Jim 'The Hat' Bradshaw - Learn The Matchup

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-05-2008, 05:11 PM   #1
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Matcher's Feedback - What do YOU need help with

Please put your:
1) questions
2) comments
3) Areas you need help/feedback on

HERE in this thread. Specific threads will then be started to assist you if needed.
RichieP is offline  
Old 05-05-2008, 09:47 PM   #2
punch18
AlwNW3X
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 42
hi rich good work


question............... in the minds eye thread we were matching via the 1st fraction then matching all the examples were early. If we think it would run ote is it done the same way with the earlies taken out.


question 2.......................
I read the 5 steps and have been practicing with them. example
i find the pace 22-45-58
when matching i look for a horse who won at that pace or better and hes my choice.
comment .................
spot plays
thanks in advance
punch
punch18 is offline  
Old 05-05-2008, 10:47 PM   #3
PeteC
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
Hi Rich- I guess I'll kick things off...The second "Mind's Eye" race was a sign to me that I need work on evaluating Early runners with power lines far down in the PP's. Specifically, when to accept that 1st call as a pace the horse can win or be competitive against and use that to analyze today's race. In the mind's eye race, when you accept #7's line 6-back the rest of the analysis clearly points to her as the likely winner. Your explanation about the last-race blowout win allowing you to open up the pp's all the way was an eye opener for me.

I guess I feel that I need more practice differentiating when to open up the pp's all the way versus situations where a horse has "changed his style" or "has become a slow horse".

On a positive note, because of the race you laid out, I spotted what I thought was a similar situation at Hollywood Park on Sunday. I did not bet a dime on the horse as I'm still developing confidence in this situation. However, it happens to be Bill's "lemon" race. I was happy to see that others had bet this horse.

Without going through the analysis of the whole race, I'll share what I saw on the #5 horse, Raingear. I saw that he won his last race nicely from off the pace but was first at the break. I then scrolled down and saw his race 5-back. He was 2nd by a head at the 1C in 21.2! After that fight, he finished second by 3/4 of a length. Based on his last race I accepted him as an early horse and took the 21.2 pace, understanding that he could also win OTE. Anyway, with that pace as the guide, the rest of the anlaysis was very similar to me as your 2nd Mind's Eye Race, with Raingear dominating early.

Anyway, I don't know if this is a challenge for anyone else, but any thoughts you have will be greatly appreciated...
PeteC is offline  
Old 05-06-2008, 12:39 PM   #4
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Quote:
Originally Posted by punch18 View Post
hi rich good work


question............... in the minds eye thread we were matching via the 1st fraction then matching all the examples were early. If we think it would run ote is it done the same way with the earlies taken out.


question 2.......................
I read the 5 steps and have been practicing with them. example
i find the pace 22-45-58
when matching i look for a horse who won at that pace or better and hes my choice.
comment .................
spot plays
thanks in advance
punch
Hi Punch:
1) Excellent question. I will find a race that moves to the next step which is other than early. I'm thinking of Jim when he was explaining to me the steps needed to teach his concepts that give matchers the BEST chance to UNDERSTAND and implement his concepts.

This ongoing forum and me explaining to folks here exactly how he taught ME is what he wanted after he passed. I'll find a good one or 2 Punch and do right by everyone.

2) When you can give me an example race that you have WON please. If it's within the last couple of days the better cause I can then get the pp's.Post them up and then we can look and follow along step by step what you are doing ok? I think the "pictures" of the past performances will help greatly as far as us "seeing" what you are doing.
RichieP is offline  
Old 05-06-2008, 12:50 PM   #5
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteC View Post
Hi Rich- I guess I'll kick things off...The second "Mind's Eye" race was a sign to me that I need work on evaluating Early runners with power lines far down in the PP's. Specifically, when to accept that 1st call as a pace the horse can win or be competitive against and use that to analyze today's race. In the mind's eye race, when you accept #7's line 6-back the rest of the analysis clearly points to her as the likely winner. Your explanation about the last-race blowout win allowing you to open up the pp's all the way was an eye opener for me.

I guess I feel that I need more practice differentiating when to open up the pp's all the way versus situations where a horse has "changed his style" or "has become a slow horse".

On a positive note, because of the race you laid out, I spotted what I thought was a similar situation at Hollywood Park on Sunday. I did not bet a dime on the horse as I'm still developing confidence in this situation. However, it happens to be Bill's "lemon" race. I was happy to see that others had bet this horse.

Without going through the analysis of the whole race, I'll share what I saw on the #5 horse, Raingear. I saw that he won his last race nicely from off the pace but was first at the break. I then scrolled down and saw his race 5-back. He was 2nd by a head at the 1C in 21.2! After that fight, he finished second by 3/4 of a length. Based on his last race I accepted him as an early horse and took the 21.2 pace, understanding that he could also win OTE. Anyway, with that pace as the guide, the rest of the anlaysis was very similar to me as your 2nd Mind's Eye Race, with Raingear dominating early.

Anyway, I don't know if this is a challenge for anyone else, but any thoughts you have will be greatly appreciated...
Ok Pete:

1) We MUST consider the horses entire past performances when we have determined he is "still a horse". Using all the lines is Jim's way of AVOIDING having to adjust a horse with variants/track to track and the like.

Go back and check the Sunland race please in the "Mind's Eye" thread. On that winning 7 horse we MUST MUST MUST be able to go down to that Zia line deep in the pp's.

Why did I use the word must 3 times? That race was the last race Jim worked with me when he was in the hospital ok? HE wanted THAT race and horse put up here and said "The fellas MUST be able to get that horse Rich off that Zia line.That's the Matchup"

2) As to your 2nd part re the Holly race. Pete I am not blowing smoke when I tell you EXCELLENT "Mind's Eye" work there. You looked at a horse and saw him multi-dimensionally after taking in his looks on several lines in the past performances. Keep working races in a quiet environment man.

YOUR "Mind's Eye" is developing beautifully. "Pictures" of a horse's ability are starting to form in your mind. Keep listening Pete. Keep listening.
Your INTUITION is talking to you.

1) Listen
2) ACT on the FIRST thing it tells you about a horse/race. Practice acting QUICKLY

Last edited by RichieP; 05-06-2008 at 12:53 PM.
RichieP is offline  
Old 05-06-2008, 06:26 PM   #6
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
I think we have a lot of tools to help us gage the ability of early horses already. I am sure there are more. But right now for me the hardest judgment call is the deep closer with a good power move versus not-so-deep closers that ran just a little slower in their power moves. Just a for instance, but I'm not sure what should carry more weight - the move from 11th to 7th to 3rd or whether the number of lengths gained between each call - or some combination of the two. I kinda understand the fact that passing horses means the horse had extra energy, but within the POR/POH data is there some way to confirm whether or not the move really is what it appears to be?

Another question might be to help define or quantify the OTE horse's equivalent of "fighting", where an early horse leading by a head or neck is seen as being pressured and either reacts gamely or not.

Thanks Richie,
Bill Lyster is offline  
Old 05-07-2008, 09:08 AM   #7
mufasa
Grade 1
 
mufasa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 310
Rich, as to the Match Up look at race 2 at Belmont for today, 5/7/08. The #4 horse (Jason’s Prospect) to me is a perfect example of “a horse coming out of the fastest pace in last race.” He has other good points in his favor and that with the last race factor he is to my way of thinking a best bet type of horse.

Robert
mufasa is offline  
Old 05-07-2008, 03:53 PM   #8
mufasa
Grade 1
 
mufasa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 310
Quote:
Originally Posted by mufasa View Post
Rich, as to the Match Up look at race 2 at Belmont for today, 5/7/08. The #4 horse (Jason’s Prospect) to me is a perfect example of “a horse coming out of the fastest pace in last race.” He has other good points in his favor and that with the last race factor he is to my way of thinking a best bet type of horse.

Robert
You see it is true that even your best bets lose. I think I read the last race for #4 correctly (if not let me know where I went wrong) but that does not gurantee a winning ticket. Nothing does.

Robert
mufasa is offline  
Old 05-07-2008, 05:27 PM   #9
Intrepid
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by mufasa View Post
as to the Match Up look at race 2 at Belmont for today, 5/7/08. The #4 horse (Jason’s Prospect) to me is a perfect example of “a horse coming out of the fastest pace in last race.” He has other good points in his favor and that with the last race factor he is to my way of thinking a best bet type of horse.

Robert
I also see the #4 as a contender, but when I look at the #3 horse MacKinaw and convert his last race (at a mile) to a sprint I see he can run as fast or faster early on and "out position" the #4 horse. Also looking at the 7th line back on the #3 shows me he has run well against a similar pace before and made a very competitive move against it.

That's just my perspective and of course hind sight is always 20-20.
Intrepid is offline  
Old 05-07-2008, 06:43 PM   #10
jwolpert
Racing Form Only
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 33
Check the 3 in that Race

Check the 3 in that Race
jwolpert is offline  
 

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Feedback Please/ Philly Sunday Race 1 RichieP Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 19 04-23-2006 02:02 PM
Feedback Please/ Aqueduct Saturday/ Race 3 RichieP Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 19 04-22-2006 05:11 PM
Feedback Please / Aqueduct Wednesday / Race 4 RichieP Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 64 04-21-2006 08:12 AM
Wed Aqu Race 5 / Feedback needed RichieP Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 45 04-09-2006 08:38 PM
Feedback needed/Friday/Mnr race 6 RichieP Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 30 04-08-2006 12:02 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:14 PM.