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Hat Check - How Can We Help You? Jim 'The Hat' Bradshaw - Learn The Matchup |
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05-05-2008, 05:11 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Matcher's Feedback - What do YOU need help with
Please put your:
1) questions 2) comments 3) Areas you need help/feedback on HERE in this thread. Specific threads will then be started to assist you if needed. |
05-05-2008, 09:47 PM | #2 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 42
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hi rich good work
question............... in the minds eye thread we were matching via the 1st fraction then matching all the examples were early. If we think it would run ote is it done the same way with the earlies taken out. question 2....................... I read the 5 steps and have been practicing with them. example i find the pace 22-45-58 when matching i look for a horse who won at that pace or better and hes my choice. comment ................. spot plays thanks in advance punch |
05-05-2008, 10:47 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Hi Rich- I guess I'll kick things off...The second "Mind's Eye" race was a sign to me that I need work on evaluating Early runners with power lines far down in the PP's. Specifically, when to accept that 1st call as a pace the horse can win or be competitive against and use that to analyze today's race. In the mind's eye race, when you accept #7's line 6-back the rest of the analysis clearly points to her as the likely winner. Your explanation about the last-race blowout win allowing you to open up the pp's all the way was an eye opener for me.
I guess I feel that I need more practice differentiating when to open up the pp's all the way versus situations where a horse has "changed his style" or "has become a slow horse". On a positive note, because of the race you laid out, I spotted what I thought was a similar situation at Hollywood Park on Sunday. I did not bet a dime on the horse as I'm still developing confidence in this situation. However, it happens to be Bill's "lemon" race. I was happy to see that others had bet this horse. Without going through the analysis of the whole race, I'll share what I saw on the #5 horse, Raingear. I saw that he won his last race nicely from off the pace but was first at the break. I then scrolled down and saw his race 5-back. He was 2nd by a head at the 1C in 21.2! After that fight, he finished second by 3/4 of a length. Based on his last race I accepted him as an early horse and took the 21.2 pace, understanding that he could also win OTE. Anyway, with that pace as the guide, the rest of the anlaysis was very similar to me as your 2nd Mind's Eye Race, with Raingear dominating early. Anyway, I don't know if this is a challenge for anyone else, but any thoughts you have will be greatly appreciated... |
05-06-2008, 12:39 PM | #4 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
1) Excellent question. I will find a race that moves to the next step which is other than early. I'm thinking of Jim when he was explaining to me the steps needed to teach his concepts that give matchers the BEST chance to UNDERSTAND and implement his concepts. This ongoing forum and me explaining to folks here exactly how he taught ME is what he wanted after he passed. I'll find a good one or 2 Punch and do right by everyone. 2) When you can give me an example race that you have WON please. If it's within the last couple of days the better cause I can then get the pp's.Post them up and then we can look and follow along step by step what you are doing ok? I think the "pictures" of the past performances will help greatly as far as us "seeing" what you are doing. |
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05-06-2008, 12:50 PM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
1) We MUST consider the horses entire past performances when we have determined he is "still a horse". Using all the lines is Jim's way of AVOIDING having to adjust a horse with variants/track to track and the like. Go back and check the Sunland race please in the "Mind's Eye" thread. On that winning 7 horse we MUST MUST MUST be able to go down to that Zia line deep in the pp's. Why did I use the word must 3 times? That race was the last race Jim worked with me when he was in the hospital ok? HE wanted THAT race and horse put up here and said "The fellas MUST be able to get that horse Rich off that Zia line.That's the Matchup" 2) As to your 2nd part re the Holly race. Pete I am not blowing smoke when I tell you EXCELLENT "Mind's Eye" work there. You looked at a horse and saw him multi-dimensionally after taking in his looks on several lines in the past performances. Keep working races in a quiet environment man. YOUR "Mind's Eye" is developing beautifully. "Pictures" of a horse's ability are starting to form in your mind. Keep listening Pete. Keep listening. Your INTUITION is talking to you. 1) Listen 2) ACT on the FIRST thing it tells you about a horse/race. Practice acting QUICKLY Last edited by RichieP; 05-06-2008 at 12:53 PM. |
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05-06-2008, 06:26 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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I think we have a lot of tools to help us gage the ability of early horses already. I am sure there are more. But right now for me the hardest judgment call is the deep closer with a good power move versus not-so-deep closers that ran just a little slower in their power moves. Just a for instance, but I'm not sure what should carry more weight - the move from 11th to 7th to 3rd or whether the number of lengths gained between each call - or some combination of the two. I kinda understand the fact that passing horses means the horse had extra energy, but within the POR/POH data is there some way to confirm whether or not the move really is what it appears to be?
Another question might be to help define or quantify the OTE horse's equivalent of "fighting", where an early horse leading by a head or neck is seen as being pressured and either reacts gamely or not. Thanks Richie, |
05-07-2008, 09:08 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 310
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Rich, as to the Match Up look at race 2 at Belmont for today, 5/7/08. The #4 horse (Jason’s Prospect) to me is a perfect example of “a horse coming out of the fastest pace in last race.” He has other good points in his favor and that with the last race factor he is to my way of thinking a best bet type of horse.
Robert |
05-07-2008, 03:53 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 310
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Quote:
Robert |
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05-07-2008, 05:27 PM | #9 | |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 14
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Quote:
That's just my perspective and of course hind sight is always 20-20. |
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05-07-2008, 06:43 PM | #10 |
Racing Form Only
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 33
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Check the 3 in that Race
Check the 3 in that Race
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