Trainer Intent

[shoeless]

I know there are many of you that feel every time the horse is entered that they are trying to win.But as you can see from this horse that is running in the 10th at Woodbine today it is not the case.The race is a 16,000 CLAIMER FOR 3 YEARS OLD AND UP.Notice where the horses 2 wins were and what distance and class also how the trainer went about setting up those wins.It is my feeling that people are spending too much time worrying about how the race will match up or their computer readouts rather then if the horse belongs in today's race.It doesnt matter if this horse wins or runs up the track I still believe I had a viable contender in today's race.

[lsosa54]

For ME, and I emphasize the ME, my first determination has to be whether the horse can be successful at today's conditions, most importantly the class level where it will run today. The other important issue for me is how it got there - in other words, reading the pp's from the bottom up ala Bob Purdy. What is the horse's "story", so to speak.

Is it a negative class drop? Is he moving up from a loss at a lower level - is there a reason why I may consider him today? Has he been running way above his head but he was dropped a bit last time and showed some signs of life and he's being dropped again today?Has he hit significant trouble in his last couple or has he been at the "wrong" distance/surface and now today he is a spot to run well?

That's all I ask for - I then let EXDC do its thing.

Again, for me, the matchup is important but just because the horse appears to win the matchup doesn't mean he's going to beat a field of allowance horses if he's been running at claiming 7500n3L. One has to be reasonable.
However, let's say for Richie, class differences may not be an issue for him.

To me, there's no magic here, just logic. No one gives away anything at the race track.

Trainers prepare their horses all the time, depending what their objectives are. They give them a route or turf tuneup to get a bit more stamina and then cut them back to a dirt sprint shooting for the win. A trainer that mostly claims will use a different approach than a trainer who gets expensive and excellent stock and is not in a hurry to win. A trainer who bets may use a different approach than one who doesn't. They know the tracks condition book and what races may be carded so they plan accordingly.

I don't get caught up in too much of that - if I think the horse is in a good position today and he is one of my choices, I will bet him at the proper odds for me. If I know the trainer is a 3% trainer and has been so for the 20 years I've been following the SoCal circuit, I will need significant odds or no bet. There will be better bets down the road, even if he adds a win to that 3%. One also needs to be wary of horses with a solid last race that are 2-17, 3-26, 4-40 - you get my drift. Why place your hard earned money on inconsistent animals?

Class droppers have to be respected always and negative class droppers will beat you at even money on occassion but as Brohamer states, move on. Class risers off a loss, especially out of the money, are tough bets unless they have been claimed recently by a solid trainer or showed something in that loss (unusually high early speed, etc.). Most of my claiming winners come from droppers finding their proper level or horses that ran at today's level in their last. You also don't want them running at today's level for too long. A horse that won for 5000n2L may need a race or two at 5000n3L before he's ready to go for the win at that level.

No major breakthroughs in the above comments, but to me, all else is secondary to the particular horse fitting today's conditions and can he attempt to do what he's asked to do today and put himself in position to win, as a win is never guaranteed in a stochastic, chaos filled event.

If there are fans of the show Hunter with Freddy Dryer out there - "works for me".

[shoeless]

Very well done.I know this is off the topic but if you wouldnt mind doing so I would be interested to see how you go about using EXDC.

[Bill V.]

Hello Jeff
and group

Do you know When a trainer enters a horse in a race, Do they know who else
will be entered into the race ??? My example I did the race
In my opinion the two has a chance with a good sustained running style
and the software I use has calculated it to be the # 1 FX horse there looks to be some early pace to this race I.m seeing a 22.0 and 45.0 projected pace
The 2 is the # 1 APV horse and it has a strong (in this field) Class rating
of 1.51 This tells me that 2 horse has run well in higher class races
My example is the 11 horse Is this horse who is rated just a little better
than the 2 healthy ? It was claimed for 25,000 won the race
than was laid off I failed in two comebacks at 50000 and 32,000
now today it is entered for $16000 third back off the layoff
Something I think about maybe a good trainer's horse (#2)
runs against one or more horses in the race that just who knows what to
expect ?? I think the 2 and 3 are the horses in this race but the 11
is the key

GS
Bill

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Very well done.I know this is off the topic but if you wouldnt mind doing so I would be interested to see how you go about using EXDC.

I'll put up a race when I get some time.

[shoeless]

Bill,No the trainer wont know until the entries are drawn.


Isosa,Sounds good

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Bill,No the trainer wont know until the entries are drawn.

Thanks Jeff

[Nets]

Very, very nice Jeff! Wish I had read your post about 30 mins before I did!
Gary

[Jonathan Steele]

In my experience, T.I. is an important factor to consider in cheap and very cheap claiming races.

Regards,

Jon

[shoeless]

Gary,Thanks,the exacta of 144.00 was very hittable as the 3 and 10 were the only horses in form that could compete in this class.Jeff