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11-06-2008, 12:22 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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Data Base - MatchUp Question
Query:
Two or three early horses in a race with first call times within 1/5 second of each other. Race projection other than early. I'm curious how often the early horse wins anyway. (Average odds would be interesting too.) I'm sure there might be some here with data base capabilities or records of such information. I could make a "ballpark" guess, but that's all it would be. Obviously, the early horses are going to win "some" percentage of the time when there is other matching speed in the race, but I'm curious what that might be broken down for sprint/route, turf, poly, overall, etc. There might even be a big difference between maiden and claimers, allowance and stakes races. I'm not talking about using Quirin speed points, but actual first call times. Thanks to anyone that can help. [It's times like these that I wish I had data base skills. Poof! Query the data base, and I have my answer(s).] [Oh, my ballpark guess? 7-15%~] |
11-06-2008, 12:43 PM | #2 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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DEPENDS on the track; Fort Erie, inner AQU, Woodbine in November the first horse out of the gate often wins.
Fair Grounds, Kentucky Downs, Hawthorne etc. maybe not |
11-06-2008, 12:49 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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Please show your data for that.
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11-06-2008, 01:00 PM | #4 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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I do not keep a database any longer as it dilutes reality, BUT 7 years of data (that I just threw out) said that. Don't believe me or anyone else, collect it yourself and you will see the same thing...
The ONLY reality is the specific match up for the race you are considering. Last edited by Tim Y; 11-06-2008 at 01:11 PM. |
11-06-2008, 01:17 PM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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Quote:
Why are you wasting my time? If I had the data, I wouldn't have asked the ****ing question in the first place. So please do me a favor from now on. Stay out of my threads, and I'll stay out of yours. I'm sick and tired of your goddamn bull****. |
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11-06-2008, 01:21 PM | #6 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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A forum is a place where people discuss things unless the definition changed over night.
EARLY is where it's at the majority of race tracks on dirt: ALWAYS has been with the likes of Chinook Pass and the rest that get out and don't look back. |
11-06-2008, 02:13 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,258
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Hsh
Turbulator, I am not sure if the current version of HSH does this, but I remember using the DOS version of HSH which was called HNB (The Handicapper's Notebook). It would not surprise me if a query which Dave Schwartz calls filters is possible using the current version of HSH.
Dave Schwartz uses Clarion for his database and he is a very capable DB programmer. This does not answer your question, but I sent Dave Schwartz an e-mail to see if a query such as this can be done. My database skills are minimal so I wouldn't know where to start. |
11-06-2008, 02:20 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,258
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Database Reply
Turbulator, here is the reply from Dave Schwartz which may not be what you are asking for.
Since we do nothing with "raw times" (everything is converted to ratings) it would be impossible to test. If speed ratings would do, that would be possible. |
11-06-2008, 06:53 PM | #9 | |
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Posts: 1,258
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Jeff Platt response
Quote:
Hi Mike, The "gotcha" that you threw is the phrase "Race projection other than early." What I have to say might ruffle a few feathers because it goes against the grain of current discussions on Sartin match up concepts... But my own research very clearly indicates the most accurate means of projecting a race as either "early" or "other than early" has far more to do with the surface being either speed friendly or speed tiring than the amount of pace pressure within a race or the way that the horses within the race match up. On speed tiring surfaces early horses tire early and spit the bit. On speed favoring surfaces even cheap speed has the ability to wire almost any field. My research very clearly indicates two long term patterns as the public bets the races: 1. Early speed is consistently ignored while late speed is consistently overbet. 2. Form or readiness is a measurable commodity and the public has very little idea of how to go about doing that. Workouts can be a good way to identify readiness. Horses with 5f or longer bullet drills are frequently ignored by the public. Yet if the same "move" were made in the afternoon during a race the public would be all over the horse. Ok. That said, back to your question: "How often does the early horse win?" I'll try to run a few data samples and shoot them your way (time allowing) later. Jeff Taking things a little further, in the question you put to me "I'm curious how often the early horse wins anyway" my own data studies very clearly show that form or readiness has more of an influence than |
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11-07-2008, 05:34 AM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
Turbulator I have to post when there are gross misrepresentations of my mentors teachings and the above quote is just that. I'll bow out now. Take care |
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